Monday, August 13, 2012
A new JZ Analytics poll conducted over the weekend (8/11-8/12) shows a dead heat between Democratic President Barack Obama and Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with both candidates receiving 46% of likely voters' support. Only 8% say they are undecided.
The poll of 1,117 likely voters was conducted by telephone by JZ Analytics and is the first full poll since the announcement of Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his Vice Presidential running mate on Saturday.
Hot on the heels of Mitt Romney's Vice Presidential choice of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, the race between Obama and Romney seems to be tightening. There is little doubt that Romney's choice of Ryan has excited the Republican base 88% of whom now support the new ticket. But there are some interesting facts to consider when the results are examined in the context of this weekend's big news and other recent events.
Not only are Obama and Romney tied in the horse race, but they also score equally among men and women, with both candidates getting 46% of male voters and 45% of female voters respectively.
Obama continues to score high among African Americans and Hispanic voters, which are traditional Democratic bases, while Romney saw a bump in support among 18-29 year olds with 41% saying they would vote for the ticket of Romney and Ryan. More importantly, Romney and Ryan lead Obama and Biden among independent voters 45% to 40%.
If numbers like this hold, this could spell real trouble for the President who won with 66% of 18-29 year olds in 2008. Obama and Biden lead 51% to 38% among 30-49 year olds. Romney/Ryan lead 56% to 35% among voters over 65 years of age and among voters who are 50-64 years of age they lead 54% to 42%.
Among creative class voters, those are who work in science and engineering; architecture and design; business and management; healthcare, education, the arts, the media or entertainment fields, Obama leads 51% to 41%, which like his performance among young voters in this poll, is not wide enough a margin for Obama to feel secure. The new poll also shows Obama/Biden with 30% support among evangelical Christians which matches their support among this group in 2008 and could spell trouble for Romney and Ryan.
Folks we might have a barn burner. Stay Tuned!
JZ Analytics is the heir to the Zogby Poll, founded by John Zogby in 1984. JZA was founded in 2011 by Jonathan Zogby and former senior officials with Zogby International.
http://www.jzanalytics.com...
Methodology
JZ Analytics Poll of
Likely Voters in United States
8/11/12 thru 8/12/12
JZ Analytics conducted an Interactive Voice Response survey of likely voters, supplemented by an interactive survey of likely voters to achieve appropriate national representation of hard to reach voter subgroups.
The sample is 1,117 interviews with 18 questions asked.
Interviews are primarily conducted through an IVR system that is hosted on a supplier's telephone center. Phones are automatically dialed and a voice recording then reads the survey questions and answers. The telephone keypad is used by those interviewed to enter a numeric response representing each answer. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased voter registration lists. Up to three calls are made to reach a sampled phone number.
In the supplementary online surveys, using trusted interactive partner resources thousands of adults were invited to participate. This secondary methodology is employed to better represent subgroups that are less likely to respond to conventional telephone surveys. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, and religion.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1,117 is +/- 3.0 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
http://www.jzanalytics.com/Meth/081312.html
