The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Brittain33]

Larry Schweikart is a freeper who writes conservative history books and predicted a Blackwell win on FR because of the R strength he personally observed in SW Ohio.

[J. J.]

The median age fell 8 years in two days. I would hold your horses on declarations about that. Secondly, black democrats vote very differently than white democrats. If Blacks are voting we know they are voting 95-5 Obama. Black Democrats will vote 99-1 Obama. White Democrats 75-25. Black Independents 85-15.

Demographics are especially important in a state like NC, far more important than Party ID given the number of DINOS.

Even comparing the median age with the same points in time in 2008, 2012 is an older electorate.

I also took a look at the week after registration ended.  That was this past week and the D's had a net gain of 11,000 votes.  In 2008, it was 36,000.  The trending is not there.  NC is going R this year, and both campaigns have pulled resources.

[krazen1211]

I terms of actual voters, the R/D gap is hugely important.  Most people register for a party based on their ideology.  Someone who just loves Obama doesn't say, "Hey, I think I'll register Republican."

Also, so far, the racial divide in NC is up by about 2%, but the party affiliation number is up by about the same amount.  Further, the electorate is skewing older.  

NC is gone.

Blacks have added about 120k voters, and other minorities 100k, over the past 4 years. In the meanwhile they lost 180k or so white Democrats.


The dropoff probably mixes olds and college kids in the triangle.

[J. J.]

I terms of actual voters, the R/D gap is hugely important.  Most people register for a party based on their ideology.  Someone who just loves Obama doesn't say, "Hey, I think I'll register Republican."

Also, so far, the racial divide in NC is up by about 2%, but the party affiliation number is up by about the same amount.  Further, the electorate is skewing older.  

NC is gone.

Blacks have added about 120k voters, and other minorities 100k, over the past 4 years. In the meanwhile they lost 180k or so white Democrats.


The dropoff probably mixes olds and college kids in the triangle.

Olds voting are up this year, at this point. 

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina Update

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Good day for Democratic, African American turnout yesterday.

Total turnout 457,824

Party Reg    
Dem    50.2%
Rep    31.2%
None/Oth    18.5%

Age    

18-29    9.8%
30-44    15.4%
45-59    27.7%
60+    47.1%

Race    

White    65.6%
Black    29.9%
Other    4.5%

Gender    

Female    55.2%
Male    43.8%
Unk.    0.9%

Method    

In-person    82.4%
Mail    17.6%

[Tender Branson]

For comparison purposes, the final 2008 numbers were 51% D and 30% R. So a net gain of 2 for the Rs so far.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats have large advantages in Clark and Washoe country after the first day of early voting. Nevada may be off the table for Romney by next weekend.

[J. J.]

Democrats have large advantages in Clark and Washoe country after the first day of early voting. Nevada may be off the table for Romney by next weekend.

Possibly, but we don't know if he is doing better or worse than 2008. 

[Lief 🗽]

He won by 13% in 2008. He can afford to do a lot worse and still win easily.

[J. J.]

He won by 13% in 2008. He can afford to do a lot worse and still win easily.

We don't know the percentages in 2008.  He could be doing far better or far worse.

[J. J.]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

The final in 2008 was:

Dem
   47.1%
Rep
   35.3%
No/Oth
   17.5%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

I would caution against making comparisons, but the gap is currently lower.
   

[Minnesota Mike]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

The final in 2008 was:

Dem
   47.1%
Rep
   35.3%
No/Oth
   17.5%

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

I would caution against making comparisons, but the gap is currently lower.
   

2008 early voting was a disaster for the Republicans, if they can't improve on those horrible numbers they should just give up.

BTW it's not an apples to apples comparison but in 2010 Republicans had a small lead in early voting in Washoe county and Sharon Angle still lost. If they can't come at least close in 2012 (within 5%?) I don't see how Romney wins.

[J. J.]

2008 early voting was a disaster for the Republicans, if they can't improve on those horrible numbers they should just give up.

Well, it seems to be better and, in general, the early vote gets front loaded D (as it did in IA).  If we had a same point in time comparison, we might have a better understanding of what's happening.

Basically, NV shows some indication of being a more R electorate, but it too early to tell. 

[Lief 🗽]

http://ralstonreports.com/blog/final-thoughts-first-day-early-voting-what-look-next#.UIR4v_k5y5I

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[Lief 🗽]

Republicans lost Washoe County again today, 2262 to 1830.

[J. J.]

Republicans lost Washoe County again today, 2262 to 1830.

What was the total vote and what was the percentage?

[Minnesota Mike]

Republicans lost Washoe County again today, 2262 to 1830.

What was the total vote and what was the percentage?

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

[J. J.]

Republicans lost Washoe County again today, 2262 to 1830.

What was the total vote and what was the percentage?

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

So we are talking about, so far:

D 46.7%

R 36.9%

O  16.4%

The gap closed slightly since yesterday and is running about 2 points below 2008.  The key words are "so far."

[BaldEagle1991]

How is Clark County, NV (home of Las Vegas) doing?

[J. J.]

Okay, we have three states, IA (in terms of applications), NC, and NV, where, so far, R's are running a little bit ahead of 2008. 

[Speed of Sound]

Okay, we have three states, IA (in terms of applications), NC, and NV, where, so far, R's are running a little bit ahead of 2008. 

Which, in an election like this, still has to be considered good news for Obama, no? I mean, he doesn't need 350, just 270. Or will there be so much smaller a gap on actual election day that this shift could be significant?

[J. J.]

How is Clark County, NV (home of Las Vegas) doing?

Clark is running a bit more strongly in the first day. 

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, we have three states, IA (in terms of applications), NC, and NV, where, so far, R's are running a little bit ahead of 2008. 

Which, in an election like this, still has to be considered good news for Obama, no? I mean, he doesn't need 350, just 270. Or will there be so much smaller a gap on actual election day that this shift could be significant?

Yeah, exactly. It would be horrible, awful news for Romney (and shocking news for everyone else) if Republicans weren't running ahead of their 2008 numbers. But so far in Iowa and Nevada at least (it's hard to tell in Florida and Ohio) it doesn't look like it's by enough to overturn Obama's 2008 margins of victory.

[Franzl]

The West will save Obama just like it saved the Democratic Senate in 2010, I'm starting to believe.

[Lief 🗽]

Jon Ralston reports that early voting is up significantly over 2008 so far, 59k versus 49k. Already 7% of the 2008 turnout has voted, after just two days of early voting.