The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

Okay, we have three states, IA (in terms of applications), NC, and NV, where, so far, R's are running a little bit ahead of 2008. 

Which, in an election like this, still has to be considered good news for Obama, no? I mean, he doesn't need 350, just 270. Or will there be so much smaller a gap on actual election day that this shift could be significant?

No.  From what we were seeing this is the time of D peak in early voting, at least in NC.  It looks like the had a net loss in same day registration in the last weeks 2008.  They will probably peek in that category this coming week.   We can see the peek, and we know it is slightly lower than 2008; how deep will the valley be?  

In IA and NC the indications are that there will be an influx in R's.  Now in neither case will that probably be enough to give Romney the lead in early or absentee voting, but it might give him the lead when combined with election day voting.

It is also a measure of enthusiasm.  

[Brittain33]

J.J., I don't believe anyone will dispute that Republicans will do better this year than in 2008.

The problem is, stating this fact is banal. We know Republicans will do better. But the deficit to overcome in these states (except NC) is so enormous that statements like this are meaningless. Romney can win NC narrowly, lose Iowa narrowly, and lose Nevada by mid single digits and lost the election. There is simply no value in noting that Republicans are doing slightly better than in 2008, even if you talk about "trends" and "closing."

Also: Florida.

[J. J.]

NC

Dem    48.1%
Rep    30.9%
None/Oth    21.0%

Black voters are running at about 5 points higher than 2008 final.  Under 45 voters are running more than 12 points behind there final 2008.  In 2008, this looks like the top week for the D's.  R's are still a fractional point ahead of the 2008 final.

IA has not updated.

J.J., I don't believe anyone will dispute that Republicans will do better this year than in 2008.

The problem is, stating this fact is banal. We know Republicans will do better. But the deficit to overcome in these states (except NC) is so enormous that statements like this are meaningless. Romney can win NC narrowly, lose Iowa narrowly, and lose Nevada by mid single digits and lost the election. There is simply no value in noting that Republicans are doing slightly better than in 2008, even if you talk about "trends" and "closing."

Also: Florida.

A number of posts have been disputing that, or hinting at it.  The margin is important as is the demographics (where we have it).  I really can't figure out why we wouldn't be talking about this on this thread.

FL curtained in person voting (or tried to) forcing more people to use an absentee ballot.  IA, from what I understand, is permitting it in some situations that would likely benefit R's slightly.

[krazen1211]

Iowa Friday:

R: 92072
D: 147234
I: 61833


R: 30.5%
D: 48.8%
I: 20.5%



Iowa today:

R: 99680
D: 155089
I: 67553

R: 30.9%
D: 48.1%
I: 20.9%

[Lief 🗽]

Here's an easy to read, day by day record of the NV early vote: http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491

It looks like absentee ballots + two days of early vote has already resulted in 10% of 2008's turnout. That's crazy.

[J. J.]

Here's an easy to read, day by day record of the NV early vote: http://nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=2491

It looks like absentee ballots + two days of early vote has already resulted in 10% of 2008's turnout. That's crazy.

Thanks.  It is running about D +1.1 points over the end numbers in 2008.  It is not too crazy as this was a weekend and a number of people like to get it out of the way. 

[Lief 🗽]

Very strong day for Democrats in North Carolina today, increasing their lead and increasing the black percentage above 30%. The D-R gap is currently 20.2%, compared to the final D+12.6% in 2008.

[J. J.]

Very strong day for Democrats in North Carolina today, increasing their lead and increasing the black percentage above 30%. The D-R gap is currently 20.2%, compared to the final D+12.6% in 2008.

Judging same day registration from 2008, this week should be the highest week for D's.  They are still running below their 2008 numbers (though that might change).

The R's surged in the last week in 2008. 

[Brittain33]

If the Dems have a higher margin than the Rs than last time, but are below their 2008 numbers, does the imply the Rs are also underperforming their '08 numbers, J.J.?

[J. J.]

If the Dems have a higher margin than the Rs than last time, but are below their 2008 numbers, does the imply the Rs are also underperforming their '08 numbers, J.J.?

This week, probably not.  Looking at the registrations in 2008 (which would have been the same day registrations), R's came out in early voting in the last week.  The D's will probably have to run up their totals this week.

[Brittain33]

I'm not understanding the fuzziness. Either they are or they aren't no? Aside from predictions for next week.

[J. J.]

I'm not understanding the fuzziness. Either they are or they aren't no? Aside from predictions for next week.

What part of "probably not," don't you understand? 

[Brittain33]

I'm not understanding the fuzziness. Either they are or they aren't no? Aside from predictions for next week.

What part of "probably not," don't you understand? 

The use of the word "probably."

[J. J.]

Washoe County Nevada.

Nevada's swing county.

Early Vote day 1

Total 9,638

Dems 4,604 (47.77%)
Reps 3,619 (37.54%)
Other 1,415 (14.68%)

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Washoe is in today: 

Party Reg    
Dem    45.7%
Rep    39.1%
None/Oth    15.2%
   


In terms of raw votes, R's outnumbered D's slightly in Monday's vote.  http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

It might be a weekday thing, however.

It is now running 3.8 points above the final 2008 number.  Again, it might be just that more R's come out on weekdays. 

[J. J.]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

[Brittain33]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

No need to apologize, but I don't understand why you'd use one point of time as a reference for the Dems but a different point in time for the Republicans. What's the rationale for that? How are the R's doing compared to this point in time in 2008? How are the D's doing compared to the 2008 final?

[J. J.]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

No need to apologize, but I don't understand why you'd use one point of time as a reference for the Dems but a different point in time for the Republicans. What's the rationale for that? How are the R's doing compared to this point in time in 2008? How are the D's doing compared to the 2008 final?

That is how they were doing at this point in time.  I doubled checked and at 10/20/08 vhere were the NC numbers:

D 56.3%
R 27.2%

D + 29.1

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1224486000/

Yesterday

D 51.2
R 30.2

D +21.0

It should be an 8.1 point closing (did my math wrong).  That is significant, especially when the D's carried the state by < 0.6. 

This is the time when you get much of the D turnout.  In 2008, R's ended up with 30.2 and D's with 51.4.  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

This is very bad news for Obama in NC. 

[krazen1211]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

No need to apologize, but I don't understand why you'd use one point of time as a reference for the Dems but a different point in time for the Republicans. What's the rationale for that? How are the R's doing compared to this point in time in 2008? How are the D's doing compared to the 2008 final?

That is how they were doing at this point in time.  I doubled checked and at 10/20/08 vhere were the NC numbers:

D 56.3%
R 27.2%

D + 29.1

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1224486000/

Yesterday

D 51.2
R 30.2

D +21.0

It should be an 8.1 point closing (did my math wrong).  That is significant, especially when the D's carried the state by < 0.6. 

This is the time when you get much of the D turnout.  In 2008, R's ended up with 30.2 and D's with 51.4.  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

This is very bad news for Obama in NC. 

Yep. Voting among 18-29 is down from 11.1% to 9.9%. Those are the only whites that Obama wins any big share of and they are down.

[J. J.]

From what I can tell, there is a higher black voter turnout.  Obama appears to be losing white Democrats in NC, in terms of turnout.  That does not bode well nationally. 

[J. J.]

IA:

Dem    47.3%
Rep    31.3%
None/Oth    21.4%

The R's are running 2 points ahead of the 2008 final.  Applications, as opposed to returned ballots, are running about 3 points lower for the D's than the returned ballot. 

[Brittain33]

From what I can tell, there is a higher black voter turnout.  Obama appears to be losing white Democrats in NC, in terms of turnout.  That does not bode well nationally. 

Yes, if Obama can't win the votes of southern whites registered as Democrats, he's utterly screwed in Ohio and Nevada.

[Brittain33]

Nevada turnout so far:

Dem 48.6%
Rep 35.4%
Ind 15.9%

Poll data on how early voters have voted (ARG, a favorable poll for Romney):

Obama: 57%
Romney: 43%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NV12.html

If Romney is only splitting Indys with Obama, he's doomed in Nevada.

[krazen1211]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

[krazen1211]

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf


Cuyahoga absentee + early voting is totaling 13% of registration and 16% of 2008 vote.

[J. J.]

From what I can tell, there is a higher black voter turnout.  Obama appears to be losing white Democrats in NC, in terms of turnout.  That does not bode well nationally. 

Yes, if Obama can't win the votes of southern whites registered as Democrats, he's utterly screwed in Ohio and Nevada.

He got them to come out for him last time.  And a lot of northerners resemble the southern Democrats in PA, OH, NY (upstate), especially at the CD level.