The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[J. J.]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

[Lief 🗽]

Nevada turnout so far:

Dem 48.6%
Rep 35.4%
Ind 15.9%

Poll data on how early voters have voted (ARG, a favorable poll for Romney):

Obama: 57%
Romney: 43%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NV12.html

If Romney is only splitting Indys with Obama, he's doomed in Nevada.

Most polls show Obama tied or winning independents in Nevada, IIRC.

[Likely Voter]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

[krazen1211]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

D+2 for the entire EV period.

[Brittain33]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

[J. J.]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

[Lief 🗽]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

[Yank2133]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Yeah, at the current pace Romney would lose by 5-6 points.

[J. J.]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Like I said, it is flippable, but I still give it to Obama, at this point in time.  I would say Obama by 1-2 points.

[Lief 🗽]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Like I said, it is flippable, but I still give it to Obama, at this point in time.  I would say Obama by 1-2 points.

How generous of you.

[Yank2133]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Like I said, it is flippable, but I still give it to Obama, at this point in time.  I would say Obama by 1-2 points.

Oh please, JJ.

Obama is going to win NV by 5-6 points.

[J. J.]

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.

Not by nearly enough for him to win the state.

Like I said, it is flippable, but I still give it to Obama, at this point in time.  I would say Obama by 1-2 points.

How generous of you.

Oh please, JJ.

Obama is going to win NV by 5-6 points.

5-6 points even today is unlikely.  We've been noting the shift in the early voting.

I do find it interesting how much the battleground has shifted on this thread.  We were talking about how NC was going Obama, then IA, now NV. 

[Lief 🗽]

5-6 points is far from unlikely. Jon Ralston was talking about a possible Obama victory of that size just today.

[Yank2133]

5-6 points is far from unlikely. Jon Ralston was talking about a possible Obama victory of that size just today.

This.

To say Obama will only win NV by 1-2 is a bit of a stretch IMO. Democrats generally under-poll in NV and their ground game is among the best in the country.

Obama won't win by 2008 margins, but he should win by 5-6 points much like Reid did in 2010.

[J. J.]

5-6 points is far from unlikely. Jon Ralston was talking about a possible Obama victory of that size just today.

This.

To say Obama will only win NV by 1-2 is a bit of a stretch IMO. Democrats generally under-poll in NV and their ground game is among the best in the country.

Obama won't win by 2008 margins, but he should win by 5-6 points much like Reid did in 2010.

Today the early vote gap in Clark Co. slightly lower than the final in 2008, 0.8 R gain.

Today the early vote gap in Washoe Co. was +4.8 R points than the 2008 final.  These are strong D voters, or were in 2008.  I'm still calling it for Obama, but not by 5-6 points.  I'm also expecting momentum on the Romney side that will lower it further.

[krazen1211]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

Registration in Nevada points to a larger victory than that.

[J. J.]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

Registration in Nevada points to a larger victory than that.

It was 44/35.7 D/R in 2008.  It is 41.9/34.7 now.  D -2.1

[Mister Twister]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

D+2 for the entire EV period.

This extrapolates to about an expected tie in Colorado on election day. Obama won CO by 9 points overall.

[J. J.]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

D+2 for the entire EV period.

This extrapolates to about an expected tie in Colorado on election day. Obama won CO by 9 points overall.

Okay, we'll add seven points on to McCain's 44.7% and get Romney 51%.  It is not a good idea to extrapolate.    Especially that way.

[Lief 🗽]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

Registration in Nevada points to a larger victory than that.

It was 44/35.7 D/R in 2008.  It is 41.9/34.7 now.  D -2.1

So Obama wins by 10 points instead of 12. You can play this game as long as you want, but the fundamentals point to moderate Obama victory here. There's a reason people are moving it to lean Obama and the Obama campaign is not putting its new 1 minute closing ad there.

[J. J.]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

Both NV's polling and early voting is trending Romney.  NV is on my "possible" list, but I credited it for Obama, because the polling tended to be off in 2008.  It is possible that Romney could take it. 

Registration in Nevada points to a larger victory than that.

It was 44/35.7 D/R in 2008.  It is 41.9/34.7 now.  D -2.1

So Obama wins by 10 points instead of 12. You can play this game as long as you want, but the fundamentals point to moderate Obama victory here. There's a reason people are moving it to lean Obama and the Obama campaign is not putting its new 1 minute closing ad there.

That is just registration, that can show longer term formation of opinions.  Some of the numbers are currently running well ahead of registration. 

Note that I reported the numbers and didn't spin them.

[krazen1211]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

We'd still need a comparison with 2008.  It is currently R +7.

D+2 for the entire EV period.

This extrapolates to about an expected tie in Colorado on election day. Obama won CO by 9 points overall.

You have to factor in the fact that Republicans have more voters than Democrats in Colorado ready to vote on election day.

[Cliffy]

Adrian Gray: Virginia: Base precincts (60%+) for GOP turning at 124% of current 2008 levels. DEM precincts are at 98%. In other words, GOP doing well.

[Lief 🗽]

Democratic precincts at 98% of 2008 turnout is also pretty fantastic. Virginia will be close either way.

[J. J.]

Democratic precincts at 98% of 2008 turnout is also pretty fantastic. Virginia will be close either way.

If accurate, it is a R +26 point gap over 2008.  About the only places it wouldn't shift a state is HI, RI, and DC.