The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Lief 🗽]

You should invest in a calculator bro. Your math stinks.

[J. J.]

You should invest in a calculator bro. Your math stinks.

No, you apparently don't understand.

If nothing changes it would be R+0/D+0. 

If the D's drop by 2, the D's become D+2.  You see 0 - 2 = -2.  Since the R's are staying the same, it becomes R+2.

R's gain +24.  That is 0+ 24 = +24. 

In this case it is 24 + 2 = +26.

I'm happy to explain negative numbers to you.  You'll have a lot practice using them over the next two weeks. 

[Lief 🗽]

If Republican turnout is 124% of what it was in 2008, and Democratic turnout is 98% of what it was, Romney would win 74 million votes to Obama's 68 million votes. That's far from a nationwide landslide in which Obama would only win three states.

[J. J.]

If Republican turnout is 124% of what it was in 2008, and Democratic turnout is 98% of what it was, Romney would win 74 million votes to Obama's 68 million votes. That's far from a nationwide landslide in which Obama would only win three states.

The three states were a joke, however, it wouldn't take into account people voting across party lines.  If this is accurate, and repeated across the country, Obama would basically lose every state that he didn't carry by 60%.

[J. J.]

Iowa Friday:

R: 92072
D: 147234
I: 61833


R: 30.5%
D: 48.8%
I: 20.5%

IA is now:

Dem    47.3%
Rep    31.3%
None/Oth    21.4%
   

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

How can that many people be voting none or other?

[J. J.]

How can that many people be voting none or other?

That is how they are registered. 

[5280]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

I see Obama is slightly ahead in Jefferson county.  How is Romney going to win CO without Jefferson? Everything else gives you a general idea how the state will turnout.

[ag]

I'm happy to explain negative numbers to you.  You'll have a lot practice using them over the next two weeks. 

Have anybody bothered ever explaining, say, statistics to you? This entire discussion is rather frightening, on both sides. Would you, people, mind stopping making fools of yourselves?

[J. J.]

I see Obama is slightly ahead in Jefferson county.  How is Romney going to win CO without Jefferson? Everything else gives you a general idea how the state will turnout.

You really have to do a comparison with 2008, which is lacking in the CO numbers.

I'm happy to explain negative numbers to you.  You'll have a lot practice using them over the next two weeks. 

Have anybody bothered ever explaining, say, statistics to you? This entire discussion is rather frightening, on both sides. Would you, people, mind stopping making fools of yourselves?

Yes, and some of that is why I'm saying you need to comparisons with 2008. 

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats netted another 5000 votes in Clark County today, bringing their lead in the county to 23,000. Nevada continues to slip away.

[SirMuxALot]

Democratic precincts at 98% of 2008 turnout is also pretty fantastic. Virginia will be close either way.

Actually, it's arguably terrible.  Considering the last three elections in a row saw total turnout in the state increase each year by an average of 15.5%.

So if your party's turnout was 115.5% of 2008, you're probably merely keeping pace with population increase.  But if you're at 98% of 2008, well...

[Tender Branson]

TX early voting on the first day is already a lot higher than on the first day in 2008.

379.000 vs. 347.000

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/oct22.shtml

[Lief 🗽]

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[Adam Griffin]

Fulton County, GA:

2008 Average Early Voters Per Day: 3,300
2012 Average Early Voters Per Day (10/13-10/22 @ 11:30 AM): 7,600

 

[Brittain33]

TX early voting on the first day is already a lot higher than on the first day in 2008.

379.000 vs. 347.000

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/oct22.shtml

Good luck identifying trends there other than that Republicans are voting strongly in absentee. Hidalgo County and El Paso County are at opposite ends of the spectrum.

[5280]

Here's an update for Colorado early voting...


D - 120965
R - 126539
I - 75030

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/24/file_attachments/169989/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B24%2B2012.pdf

So far the GOP is ahead in all swing counties.

[Brittain33]

Voter turnout for D/R almost exactly parallels their registration ratios. Unaffiliateds are voting much less, naturally.

Looking at the counties by population (half-assed way to do it, but whatever) but it sure looks like Republican areas are doing better than Dem areas. Depends on how well Obama does with the Indys or what happens between now and Election Day.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina:


D: 51.2%
R: 30.2%
I: 18.4%



2008:

D: 56.44%
R: 27.0%
I: 16.5%



Now we know why Obama is silently pulling out of North Carolina. He has collapsed among whites. Back then 27% of the votes were cast by white Democrats and that's down to 20%.

[Brittain33]

North Carolina:


D: 51.2%
R: 30.2%
I: 18.4%



2008:

D: 56.44%
R: 27.0%
I: 16.5%



Now we know why Obama is silently pulling out of North Carolina. He has collapsed among whites. Back then 27% of the votes were cast by white Democrats and that's down to 20%.

The overall white share of the electorate has dropped, and the share that is white D has dropped more because elderly Democrats are dying out and younger people are more likely to register Independent, including minorities. Plus the fact that Obama's not doing as well as 2008 and probably isn't winning NC. But you're taking that number out of context.

[krazen1211]

North Carolina:


D: 51.2%
R: 30.2%
I: 18.4%



2008:

D: 56.44%
R: 27.0%
I: 16.5%



Now we know why Obama is silently pulling out of North Carolina. He has collapsed among whites. Back then 27% of the votes were cast by white Democrats and that's down to 20%.

The overall white share of the electorate has dropped, and the share that is white D has dropped more because elderly Democrats are dying out and younger people are more likely to register Independent. Plus the fact that Obama's not doing as well as 2008 and probably isn't winning NC. But you're taking that number out of context.

Yes, North Carolina whites have lost some ground in terms of registration to blacks and some to the other minorities.

The problem for you is that those others are not voting, nor are the youngs. Median age of voter is higher in 2012 than 2008.

[Brittain33]

The problem for you is that those others are not voting, nor are the youngs. Median age of voter is higher in 2012 than 2008.

Well, I won't argue 2012 is going to be 2008. The question is whether things have swung far enough for Romney to match Reagan '84 levels among white voters, which is what he needs to simply break even in a more diverse country. The signs are that it's not happening outside of the south. Obama will likely lose NC (but put up a good fight) and I wouldn't bet on either FL or VA unless his ground game is as good as they say, but he's still favored to win reelection right now, and NV looks to be solidifying behind him.  

Similarly, I'm not counting on Colorado as part of Obama's coalition unless he's having a good night.

[krazen1211]

Here's an update for Colorado early voting...


D - 120965
R - 126539
I - 75030

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/24/file_attachments/169989/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B24%2B2012.pdf

So far the GOP is ahead in all swing counties.

Not too shabby. In 2008 the Democrats were able to get a 2 point lead in CO early voting due to lack of GOP enthusiasm, despite a sliver of a GOP lead in voter registration at the time.


Among the swing counties the Democrats have slightly more voters in Arapahoe County while the GOP has more voters in the other 2 counties.

[krazen1211]

The problem for you is that those others are not voting, nor are the youngs. Median age of voter is higher in 2012 than 2008.

Well, I won't argue 2012 is going to be 2008. The question is whether things have swung far enough for Romney to match Reagan '84 levels among white voters, which is what he needs to simply break even in a more diverse country. The signs are that it's not happening outside of the south. Obama will likely lose NC (but put up a good fight) and I wouldn't bet on either FL or VA unless his ground game is as good as they say, but he's still favored to win reelection right now, and NV looks to be solidifying behind him.  

Similarly, I'm not counting on Colorado as part of Obama's coalition unless he's having a good night.

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

[Brittain33]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.