The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[ag]

Yes

Sorry to say: it is entirely not obvious from the level of this discussion.

[krazen1211]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.

I am using these links right here.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/3016263258/

[Brittain33]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.

I am using these links right here.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/3016263258/

I'm using this one:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Your data source is missing something. It shows literally 1 "other" voter in Mecklenburg County.

[krazen1211]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.

I am using these links right here.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/3016263258/

I'm using this one:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Your data source is missing something. It shows literally 1 "other" voter in Mecklenburg County.

Ah, yes, thank you. Something appears to be missing.

It does look like others voted 4.3% of total absentees in the 2008 election and are 4.5% of total absentees thus far in this election based on the links you have.

[krazen1211]

Adrian Gray: Virginia: Base precincts (60%+) for GOP turning at 124% of current 2008 levels. DEM precincts are at 98%. In other words, GOP doing well.

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won

3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)

[Skill and Chance]

This is overall encouraging for the GOP.  We have to remember, though, that McCain didn't really play the early voting game at all in most states while Romney is trying significantly harder on that front.  The degree to which either party is merely cannibalizing election day turnout will be very important here.

[J. J.]

Democrats netted another 5000 votes in Clark County today, bringing their lead in the county to 23,000. Nevada continues to slip away.

Clark Co. shows a closing of 2.1 points from 2008 total, so far.  Obama will win early voting across the US, but by greatly reduced numbers.

[Brittain33]

Adrian Gray: Virginia: Base precincts (60%+) for GOP turning at 124% of current 2008 levels. DEM precincts are at 98%. In other words, GOP doing well.

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won

If this increase carries over to final vote totals (which you can't do, but whatever) Romney edges Obama by 4,000 votes in Virginia. Which is better than losing, but shows what a hole he's digging out of.  

[J. J.]

Adrian Gray: Virginia: Base precincts (60%+) for GOP turning at 124% of current 2008 levels. DEM precincts are at 98%. In other words, GOP doing well.

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won

If this increase carries over to final vote totals (which you can't do, but whatever) Romney edges Obama by 4,000 votes in Virginia. Which is better than losing, but shows what a hole he's digging out of. 

D's were more likely to vote early in 2008, so this might have been what Obama won by in a few states. 

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats netted another 5000 votes in Clark County today, bringing their lead in the county to 23,000. Nevada continues to slip away.

Clark Co. shows a closing of 2.1 points from 2008 total, so far.  Obama will win early voting across the US, but by greatly reduced numbers.

You keep repeating that like it's significant. It's not. Romney needs to close by three or four times that to even have a chance. He's only going to get about a 30,000 vote margin in rural Nevada to offset Obama's margin in Clark County (Washoe is likely to be a wash). Obama's already at a 25,000 margin in Clark after just four days.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats netted another 5000 votes in Clark County today, bringing their lead in the county to 23,000. Nevada continues to slip away.

Clark Co. shows a closing of 2.1 points from 2008 total, so far.  Obama will win early voting across the US, but by greatly reduced numbers.

But it's not true that better than 2008 = Romney wins that state.  Unless we are talking about NC or IN, Romney needs to do dramatically better than 2008 to flip states.  2004 is a good standard of comparison where available.  How did 2004 early voting look in NV, VA, etc?  I know we have that data for IA and it looks reasonably good for Romney, but what about the other states?

[J. J.]

Democrats netted another 5000 votes in Clark County today, bringing their lead in the county to 23,000. Nevada continues to slip away.

Clark Co. shows a closing of 2.1 points from 2008 total, so far.  Obama will win early voting across the US, but by greatly reduced numbers.

You keep repeating that like it's significant. It's not. Romney needs to close by three or four times that to even have a chance. He's only going to get about a 30,000 vote margin in rural Nevada to offset Obama's margin in Clark County (Washoe is likely to be a wash). Obama's already at a 25,000 margin in Clark after just four days.

What isn't significant is the raw vote numbers.  If Obama got 5,000 this cycle and 10,000 votes last cycle, that very poor performance, and it ma effect the result.  This happens to have been the area where Obama was the strongest in 2008.  If he weakens in his strongest segment of the vote, then he becomes weaker overall. 

[Lief 🗽]

I have no idea what you're trying to say.

[J. J.]

But it's not true that better than 2008 = Romney wins that state.  Unless we are talking about NC or IN, Romney needs to do dramatically better than 2008 to flip states.  2004 is a good standard of comparison where available.  How did 2004 early voting look in NV, VA, etc?  I know we have that data for IA and it looks reasonably good for Romney, but what about the other states?

We don't know what the rest of his numbers will look like, or even the state final early voting party split.

The state where we have the best data, and can do same point in time comparisons, is NC.  Comparing how Obama is doing now, compared to his end point numbers, indicates that his support has slumped slightly.  Comparing it to the same point in time indicates Obama is getting creamed. 

Perhaps, at this point in time in 2008, Obama was was up 70/30 in NV.  Perhaps he was down 40/60.  We don't have the data to show which.  The only thing that we can say is, in a few counties, Obama is not running as well as he ended up in 2008.

[krazen1211]

https://twitter.com/guypbenson

Source on the ground in Wisconsin tells me a county clerk in a populous area says she's seen a major increase in GOP early voting.

more early votes from Waukesha County (suburban Milwaukee, pop 390k) than Dane County (Madison, pop 495k)

[J. J.]

Washoe County, NV: 

Dem    44.2%
Rep    40.2%
None/Oth    15.6%

R's again outpolled D's for the day, by a slightly higher margin. 

Total = 9,255
Dems =  3,782 
Reps =  3,954

I would not necessarily call it a trend.  D's might come out on the weekends.  It might have been front loaded for the Democrats just as well. 

[pepper11]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

[J. J.]

I have no idea what you're trying to say.

Then perhaps you should be panicking. 

[Lief 🗽]

I have no idea what you're trying to say.

Then perhaps you should be panicking. 

If I started panicking every time I had no idea what you were trying to say, I'd be dead.

[J. J.]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

There was one, but I don't know if it is still up and I can't find it.

This article, from 5 days ago, indicates that it is running better in OH:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

[pepper11]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

There was one, but I don't know if it is still up and I can't find it.

This article, from 5 days ago, indicates that it is running better in OH:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

Thanks.

36 D, 29 R  through last  Wednesday!!??

How are these polls getting a 30 point Dem margin on early voting?

[J. J.]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

There was one, but I don't know if it is still up and I can't find it.

This article, from 5 days ago, indicates that it is running better in OH:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

Thanks.

36 D, 29 R  through last  Wednesday!!??

How are these polls getting a 30 point Dem margin on early voting?

The good ones are not.    Registration is not "firm" in OH, so the statistics are not as firm as the should be. 

[pepper11]

anyone have the Ohio link or numbers?

There was one, but I don't know if it is still up and I can't find it.

This article, from 5 days ago, indicates that it is running better in OH:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/republicans-point-to-early-vote-gains-in-ohio/

Thanks.

36 D, 29 R  through last  Wednesday!!??

How are these polls getting a 30 point Dem margin on early voting?

The good ones are not.    Registration is not "firm" in OH, so the statistics are not as firm as the should be. 

Somethings gotta give. Secretary of state says its a 7 point margin, the polls say its a 30 point margin.

PPP:

Obama does have one big advantage in Ohio though- he's already winning the election there. 21% of voters in the state say they've already voted, and they report having supported Obama 66/34

Marist:

Among voters who indicate they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads Romney, 63% to 37%

Time:

Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.

[Lief 🗽]

Once again, for the seventeenth time, Ohio does not have party registration, those party figures are meaningless, anyone who is treating them seriously (including that CNN reporter) is laughably uninformed about this sort of stuff.

[J. J.]

Once again, for the seventeenth time, Ohio does not have party registration, those party figures are meaningless, anyone who is treating them seriously (including that CNN reporter) is laughably uninformed about this sort of stuff.

In all fairness, Marist was well off in its numbers on this in IA. 

OH is probably closer than 2008, but I wouldn't guess how much.