The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Tender Branson]

8 more states to start early voting today. WI started yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa absentee ballot requests so far:

Total: 153,542

Democratic: 103,200
No Party: 32,918
Republican: 17,282
Other: 142

No joke ...

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2012/general/absenteestats.pdf

A state GOP official smiled at the numbers, saying: "The Democrats always vote early in huge numbers since at least 2004 ..."

[minionofmidas]

Iowa absentee ballot requests so far:

Total: 153,542

Democratic: 103,200
No Party: 32,918
Republican: 17,282
Other: 142

No joke ...

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2012/general/absenteestats.pdf

A state GOP official smiled at the numbers, saying: "The Democrats always vote early in huge numbers since at least 2004 ..."

Do you have comparison figures on that?

[Tender Branson]

The numbers seem to be up for Democrats compared with 2008:

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[Michael]

The voting Blitz strategy sounds fun, but wouldn't it backfire at the end because it would encourage the other party to work harder on gathering votes?

[Badger]

The voting Blitz strategy sounds fun, but wouldn't it backfire at the end because it would encourage the other party to work harder on gathering votes?

Um, I think both sides are already motivated to gather as many votes as possible.

[Michael]

The voting Blitz strategy sounds fun, but wouldn't it backfire at the end because it would encourage the other party to work harder on gathering votes?

Um, I think both sides are already motivated to gather as many votes as possible.

That is true, but when people see that their opponents are doing better so far, they tend to work even harder to compete. Oh wait a minute, maybe this blitz is used to make the opponents to panic, and then probably make mistakes that would be scorned. Brilliant! : D

[J. J.]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

[Politico]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

I was mocked here just the other day for saying that NC was a virtual lock already.

Also, it's incredible that some Democrats think they should make a play for AZ or MT given all of the information coming out of everywhere other than IA, which may be tainted by the Chicago Way...

[Tender Branson]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

[Politico]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

Sure. Can you explain again exactly what all of those extra field offices are doing for Obama? I mean, just the other day we were hearing about how the extra field offices would triumph over the efforts of the Romney camp, especially when it comes to early voting...

[Eraserhead]

Obama has lead in just about every recent North Carolina poll. If you seriously think it's completely locked down for Romney, you're an idiot. Period.

[J. J.]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

It wasR +20 in 2008, from what you posted.  This is now running R +25.  Now, obviously, that can change.

[Tender Branson]

After the first day of early voting in IA, Democratic turnout is huge in Polk, Iowa's biggest county:

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[Tender Branson]

Cuyahoga County (Ohio) ballot requests so far:

87,375 Democrats (54%)
38,515 Republicans (24%)
35,817 Indies (22%)

161,707 Total

2008: 69-30 Obama (overall result)

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

[ajb]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

This is supported by the NBC/Marist poll of NC, which says that among those intending to vote early, Obama leads Romney 57-41.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/28/14137872-first-thoughts-after-nine-battleground-polls?lite

This, by the way, is one of the reasons Obama leads in the number of field offices he has. If, like the Republicans, you focus on mail-in ballots, then you don't need much personal contact with voters. But if you want to make sure they get to the polls early, that personal contact comes in handy.

[Skill and Chance]

Cuyahoga County (Ohio) ballot requests so far:

87,375 Democrats (54%)
38,515 Republicans (24%)
35,817 Indies (22%)

161,707 Total

2008: 69-30 Obama (overall result)

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

Very important note on the Ohio numbers: Ohio does not have party registration.  Party breakdowns are calculated based on primary election ballot requests.  That is, if someone voted in the GOP primary this year, they are a Republican for purposes of this count.  If someone voted in the Dem primary, they are counted as a Democrat.  The same goes for the 2008 counts to which this data is being compared.

Of course, the 2012 Dem primary and 2008 GOP primary were uncontested in Ohio.   

[J. J.]

You are confusing early mail-in ballots (which were a small number, that voted GOP+20) and "later" early and absentee voting (which was ca. 2.5 Million voters, that voted Obama+21).

You have to compare these early numbers now with the GOP+20 number from 2008, as Prof. Michael McDonald notes.

In terms of NC ballot requests the numbers are:

Party Reg    
Dem    26.7%
Rep    52.8%
None/Oth    20.5%

They have about 10% back with about 50/32 R/D

It was the same in 2008: Of all early voters, just 10% were mail-in ballots (those were strongly GOP back then too, says Prof. McDonald). But of the 90% who later voted in person, the overwhelming majority was DEM. These numbers will dramatically change over the next month in favor of Democrats.

Those 10%, according to you, were +20 Republican.  So far, these are +25.

[Tender Branson]

J.J., why are you posting this twice ?

And why are you getting giddy with excitement over a 5-point gain for Republicans among 70.000 mail-in ballot requests, out of 2.800.000 expected early votes, that will swing in massive numbers to Obama once early in-person voting starts ?

[J. J.]

J.J., why are you posting this twice ?

And why are you getting giddy with excitement over a 5-point gain for Republicans among 70.000 mail-in ballot requests, out of 2.800.000 expected early votes, that will swing in massive numbers to Obama once early in-person voting starts ?

I'm looking at trends to compare with 2008, as a measure of enthusiasm.  So far, in what was a close state, the numbers seem better.

[nhmagic]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Lookin good for us folks!  A breakdown summary from Jay Cost:

Hamilton (Cincinnati) is just under 2:1 Rs, a net gain of just under 7 points for the Republicans over 08.

Franklin (Columbus) which went for Obama by 21(!) shows a very small but steadily increasing R lead in total votes (+5893) for a significant swing (+9 over 08 absentees, +26 overall for Rs).

Summit: important county near Cleveland, 1/4m voters, went for Obama by almost 18 points: Rs only 1300 back in total votes, or 5% difference (in 08 they lost by almost three to one).

Hardin: GOP had a 1400-1100 lead in 08. It's already three to one Rs, and about one third of total GOP ballots are in. Dems down in total requests by 2500 (!)

Logan: no 2008 data (McCain won by 26.5) Rs up four to one.

Pickaway: Rs up almost two to one---lost by 1000 absentee votes in 08 but went overall for McCain by 21.5.

Washington: Rs up two to one, absentees in 08 were three to two (McCain won by 15.5).

[Lief 🗽]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

weeee

[Minnesota Mike]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

Don't ruin it for them, they are having so much fun.

[nhmagic]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

This isnt registration, its early and absentee ballot returns for the GENERAL ELECTION.  You don't have to vote in a primary to request an absentee ballot.  This was a measure of Obama's enthusiasm in 08. It is now a measure of republican enthusiasm in 2012.