The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Badger]

Your "party" in Ohio is just a record of the last primary election you voted in. In 2008, 2.4 million Ohioans voted in the Dem primary, 0.5 million in the GOP primary. This year, it was 1.1 million in the Dem primary and 1.2 million in the GOP primary. So you can't really draw any concrete conclusions through a comparison of 2012 and 2008, at least by looking at the party "registration" of the voters. Michael McDonald, a (as far as I know) non-partisan George Mason professor who's sort of an expert on early voting, wrote the following about the state last Friday:

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link

The professor makes good points, but the crux of his theory is bolded above, and  perhaps a little overstated. Republicans can rightly claim individuals who voted in the Republican primary are overwhelmingly likely to vote Republican in November.

There are certainly exceptions which fit McDonald's analysis. Anecdoteally I've heard of a number of Democrats who voted in the GOP primary around here, not because they cared much for the race between Romney and Santorum, but rather some hotly contested local races being decided in the GOP primary, and not a contested Dem. primary race anywhere on the ballot.. Few of them will pull the lever for Romney, but those are very much the exception rather than the rule. There may be a number of "independent" (small i) voters who chose to vote in the GOP primary for the same reason. Very few voters who went to the polls primarily to pull the lever for Romney or Santorum, however, are switching to Obama in two weeks.

[Cliffy]

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source with access to ballot return numbers, the figures are as follows:

Total:

R: 187,824 (39.7%)

D: 171,971 (36.3%)

U: 108,421 (22.9%)

Mail-In/Absentee Ballots

R: 172,461

D: 158,139

U: 98,532

Early Voting

R: 15,363

D: 13,832

U: 9,889

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

[J. J.]

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source with access to ballot return numbers, the figures are as follows:

Total:

R: 187,824 (39.7%)

D: 171,971 (36.3%)

U: 108,421 (22.9%)

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

D's led in the final in 2008 by 1.8%:

Dem
   37.7%
Rep
   35.9%
No/Oth
   26.4%

[5280]

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source with access to ballot return numbers, the figures are as follows:

Total:

R: 187,824 (39.7%)

D: 171,971 (36.3%)

U: 108,421 (22.9%)

Mail-In/Absentee Ballots

R: 172,461

D: 158,139

U: 98,532

Early Voting

R: 15,363

D: 13,832

U: 9,889

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

I posted that this morning, but yeah those are good numbers.  Keep it up!

[Badger]

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source with access to ballot return numbers, the figures are as follows:

Total:

R: 187,824 (39.7%)

D: 171,971 (36.3%)

U: 108,421 (22.9%)

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

D's led in the final in 2008 by 1.8%:

Dem
   37.7%
Rep
   35.9%
No/Oth
   26.4%

How about this time in 08?

[Dan the Roman]

Colorado Numbers in 2010

1,211,297

Republicans 40.7%
Democrats   34.6%
Independents 24%

[Minnesota Mike]

Clark County Day 6

Dem- 14,969
Rep- 9,434
Other- 5,866

Total- 30,269

Clark County total (Including Absentees)


Dem- 105,338
Rep- 69,294
Other- 37,107

Total- 211,739


Does not look like Washoe updated their numbers tonight.

[Lief 🗽]

Another +5,500 votes in Clark. Democrats aren't slowing down at all.

[J. J.]

Another +5,500 votes in Clark. Democrats aren't slowing down at all.

The problem for Romney will be this weekend's numbers. 

[Mister Twister]

Colorado Numbers in 2010

1,211,297

Republicans 40.7%
Democrats   34.6%
Independents 24%

Uh oh for the GOP.... Republicans are currently running under what they did in 2010... where Buck lost by 1.5%

[Tender Branson]

Oregon numbers so far:

D: 103.000 returned (12% of all registered Dems)
R:   77.000 returned (11% of all registered GOPers)
I:    33.000 returned (  7% of all registered Indies)

http://oregonvotes.org/doc/history/nov62012/Ballot_Return_Wksht_G12.pdf

[Holmes]

With two weekends still to go, it'd be cool if we can call Nevada based on the early votes alone. Does anyone know if has Miller projected how much of the electorate will have voted early? Upwards of 40%?

[krazen1211]

The GOP is soaring in North Carolina


Yesterday:

Party Reg   
Dem   50.7%
Rep   30.5%
None/Oth   18.8%


Race   
White   65.3%
Black           30.2%
Other   4.5%


Today:


Party Reg   
Dem   50.3%
Rep   30.8%
None/Oth   18.8%


Race   
White   65.9%
Black           29.5%
Other   4.5%

[J. J.]

Here is the same point in time from 2008:  http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1224745200/

In 2008, this was the D's best week.

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida

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Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

Democrats are doing much better in absentees in 2012 compared to 2008, cutting the margin from 16% to 5%. In person Early Voting starts tomorrow and Democrats are expected to dominate as they did in 2008. With a shortened in person early voting window will be interesting to see if they can run up the same margins as last time.

[Minnesota Mike]

Here is the same point in time from 2008:  http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/date/1224745200/

In 2008, this was the D's best week.

Hard for Republicans not to improve on their 2008 numbers, they made almost no effort to promote early voting in 2008. Democrats also have improved from 2008 but they had a much higher bar to clear since they had very good early turnout in 2008.

[krazen1211]

As of today in Colorado

Total:
 
R: 187,824 (39.7%)
D: 171,971 (36.3%)
U: 108,421 (22.9%)
 
Mail-In/Absentee Ballots
 
R: 172,461
D: 158,139
U: 98,532
 
Early Voting
 
R: 15,363
D: 13,832
U: 9,889

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

[krazen1211]

Iowa today:

R: 118716
D: 175019
I: 81927

R: 31.6%
D: 46.7%
I: 21.8%


Compared to 2004, both D and R are roughly 20k below total absentee counts. I's are 40k below. That is very nice as these are liberal leaning I's.

Iowa today:


R: 135091
D: 192435
I: 95586

R: 31.9%
D: 45.4%
I: 22.6%

[J. J.]

Florida

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Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/#storylink=cpy

Democrats are doing much better in absentees in 2012 compared to 2008, cutting the margin from 16% to 5%. In person Early Voting starts tomorrow and Democrats are expected to dominate as they did in 2008. With a shortened in person early voting window will be interesting to see if they can run up the same margins as last time.

Much like OH, this has another explanation.  And thank you for noting it. 

[J. J.]

IA yesterday:

R: 31.6%
D: 46.7%
I: 21.8%

IA 10/25/12

Dem    45.4%
Rep    31.9%
None/Oth    22.7%

The gap was 18 points in 2008.  It is now 13.5. 

[BaldEagle1991]

Does anyone have the data for TX?

[J. J.]

Does anyone have the data for TX?

No, but a partial is here:  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

See also:  http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

[Dan the Roman]

With two weekends still to go, it'd be cool if we can call Nevada based on the early votes alone. Does anyone know if has Miller projected how much of the electorate will have voted early? Upwards of 40%?

Probably around 70%

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 7:

Dem: 13862
Rep: 10161
Ind: 5766

Total: 29789

[J. J.]

Washoe, NV:

10/25

Total = 8,347  Dems =   3,432  Reps = 3,396

10/26

Total = 5,408 Dems =  2,218, Reps = 2,197