The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Holmes]

Probably around 70%

That would be impressive. I'm really interested to see which way Washoe will go, too. Nevada's fun.

[J. J.]

Probably around 70%

That would be impressive. I'm really interested to see which way Washoe will go, too. Nevada's fun.

It was 67% in 2008. 

[J. J.]

In this week in 2008, NC had a net D gain of 18,317 due to one stop registration.  This was the best week the D's had.

This week NC had a net gain of 5719.

Democrats have a net lost, so far, about 51,000 voters relative to the Republicans from 2008. 

[Lief 🗽]

After one week, the Democrats are up 40,000 in Clark County and tied in Washoe. Republicans need to do a lot better in both.

[Franzl]

After one week, the Democrats are up 40,000 in Clark County and tied in Washoe. Republicans need to do a lot better in both.

That's not exactly a close race for the win in Nevada with numbers like that.

[Lief 🗽]

No, it's not. Democrats if they keep up their turnout for another week (don't know how likely that is) will have the same early vote margin as they had in 2008.

[pepper11]

Romney, Karl Rove, Mr and Mr Koch, Wake up and get out of Nevada. Wisconsin and Iowa would be good places to use your funds.

[J. J.]

No, Democrats if they keep up their turnout for another week (don't know how likely that is) will have the same early vote margin as they had in 2008.

I think this weekend's voting will be the key. 

[Lief 🗽]

Romney, Karl Rove, Mr and Mr Koch, Wake up and get out of Nevada. Wisconsin and Iowa would be good places to use your funds.

And anger Sheldon Adelson? Never!

[BaldEagle1991]

Does anyone have the data for TX?

No, but a partial is here:  http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

See also:  http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

Looks like the Harris County has a high turnout rate for early voting, that's a good sign if Obama wants to keep this county.

[J. J.]

Yesterday:


Party Reg   
Dem   50.3%
Rep   30.8%
None/Oth   18.8%


Race   
White   65.9%
Black           29.5%
Other   4.5%

Today:

Party Reg    
Dem    50.3%
Rep    30.8%
None/Oth    19.0%
Age    
18-29    10.2%
30-44    16.8%
45-59    27.8%
60+    45.1%
Race    
White    65.9%
Black    29.6%
Other    4.5%
Gender    
Female    55.9%
Male    43.1%
Unk.    1.0%

Younger voters dropped slightly while black voters increased slightly.  The most noticeable changes from 2008 final is a 3.1 points increase with black voters, and a drop in the under 45 voters, of 11.3 points.

[Tender Branson]

Cuyahoga absentee ballots look pretty good so far:

Registered Voters 927,996 D 343,392 R 124,967 I 458,193 O 1,444

Vote by Mail Ballots Requested

263,878 133,539 51,107 78,472 760

Vote by Mail Ballots Returned

161,889 91,775 33,149 36,503 462

Requests: 39% of Dems, 41% of Reps and 17% of I
Returned: 27% of Dems, 26% of Reps and 8% of I

...

Composition of requests: 51% D, 19% R, 30% I
Composition of returned: 56% D, 21% R, 23% I

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Early voting this Saturday seems to be big in Georgia, with long lines:











http://www.ajc.com/news/news/heavy-turnout-for-saturday-voting/nSp2H

[Yank2133]

Isn't AA turnout in Georgia suppose to be at a record high?

[Tender Branson]

Isn't AA turnout in Georgia suppose to be at a record high?

Yep:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://atlantablackstar.com/2012/10/27/record-turnout-already-among-black-voters-in-georgia/

[Lief 🗽]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

[Tender Branson]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Well, Obama could plunge to 15% among GA Whites.

So, even 33% Blacks won't help carry the state.

60% Whites (x 0.15) = 9%
33% Blacks (x 0.95) = 31.4%
  7% Others (x 0.65) = 4.6%

Obama => 45% in Georgia

[Lief 🗽]

Ugh, are whites in Georgia really that racist? Aren't there some enlightened ones living in Atlanta?

[Mehmentum]

Still, its pretty amazing that African Americans are turning out even more than in 2008.

[J. J.]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Actually, I've been noting that black turnout was higher in NC for a while.  It is also older there.

[Brittain33]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Actually, I've been noting that black turnout was higher in NC for a while.  It is also older there.

J.J., have you commented on lack of enthusiasm in your neighborhood?

[krazen1211]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Well, Obama could plunge to 15% among GA Whites.

So, even 33% Blacks won't help carry the state.

60% Whites (x 0.15) = 9%
33% Blacks (x 0.95) = 31.4%
  7% Others (x 0.65) = 4.6%

Obama => 45% in Georgia

You need to add more whites.

[King]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Well, Obama could plunge to 15% among GA Whites.

So, even 33% Blacks won't help carry the state.

60% Whites (x 0.15) = 9%
33% Blacks (x 0.95) = 31.4%
  7% Others (x 0.65) = 4.6%

Obama => 45% in Georgia

You need to add more whites.

♫ Sugar, spice, and everything white.  That's what the perfect electorate is made of.  ♫

[krazen1211]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Actually, I've been noting that black turnout was higher in NC for a while.  It is also older there.

http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/Earlyvotingstats08.htm

Early voting in Georgia in 2008 was 34.6% black, 60.7% white. This 33% is actually below 2008 pace.

Early + total election day voting in Georgia was 30.0% black, 64.1% white.


But why should anyone examine the real numbers when we can just crap them out?

[Dan the Roman]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Actually, I've been noting that black turnout was higher in NC for a while.  It is also older there.

http://www.sos.ga.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/Earlyvotingstats08.htm

Early voting in Georgia in 2008 was 34.6% black, 60.7% white. This 33% is actually below 2008 pace.

Early + total election day voting in Georgia was 30.0% black, 64.1% white.


But why should anyone examine the real numbers when we can just crap them out?

It would be so wonderful if Mr. Kemp had kept up Karen Handel's updates about early voting on a day to day basis rather than replacing them with his page on zero-base budgeting.