The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[rob in cal]

    Concerning the white racist electorate of Georgia, I'm sure that if the Dems had an all white ticket the white vote would still go very Republican, though not of course quite as Democrat as the black vote.  White voters in much of the South have taken their cue from their black fellow citizens in how to vote in a bloc.
   

[J. J.]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Actually, I've been noting that black turnout was higher in NC for a while.  It is also older there.

J.J., have you commented on lack of enthusiasm in your neighborhood?

Yes, and until this week, it was there.  We are starting to see signs up, sporadically.  In my precinct, for example the bumper stickers are tied 1 to 1.    I expect that to change.  

It is not yet as strong as last time.  In the more upscale black neighborhoods, Overbrook, there were yard signs starting to go up.  There are some along the highways, that were not there last week.

The ground game, so far, has been me hitting a few doors in my own precinct (some lady took a photo) and a few in SEIU people in another.  

[Okay, I wouldn't be putting any up before a hurricane.]

[J. J.]

To follow up a bit in PA, the has been a net loss in registered voters:

D -229,000

R -123,000

So the D's have had greater net loss. 

R = 36.9%

D = 50.1%

In 2008:

R = 37.0 %

D = 51.2 %

Net loss of 1.0 points for the D's.  There was no voter registration drive for the D's, which there was in 2008.

[Brittain33]

The net loss is likely due to interest in the D primaries in 2008 shifting to interest in the R primaries in 2012, wouldn't you think? Does Pennsylvania limit primary participation to that party?

[Speed of Sound]

The net loss is likely due to interest in the D primaries in 2008 shifting to interest in the R primaries in 2012, wouldn't you think? Does Pennsylvania limit primary participation to that party?

Bingo, mein freund. I know a great number of people who switch nearly every election cycle just to have a greater effect.

[J. J.]

The net loss is likely due to interest in the D primaries in 2008 shifting to interest in the R primaries in 2012, wouldn't you think? Does Pennsylvania limit primary participation to that party?

No.    It was a net 113 vote gain for the R's. 

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/voter_registration_statistics/12725

It is very rare for people to change parties in PA. 

[Phony Moderate]

It is very rare for people to change parties in PA. 

[Speed of Sound]

The net loss is likely due to interest in the D primaries in 2008 shifting to interest in the R primaries in 2012, wouldn't you think? Does Pennsylvania limit primary participation to that party?

No.    It was a net 113 vote gain for the R's. 

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/voter_registration_statistics/12725

It is very rare for people to change parties in PA. 

Can't argue with the numbers, and there they are. I'm not terribly surprised, I suppose. I mean, there are a ton (a ton!) of D's in PA that have no business being D's whatsoever and probably never vote D.

[J. J.]

It is very rare for people to change parties in PA. 

And look what happened.  The one before that was Gene Atkinson, who was blown out in the general after barely winning the primary.

Yes, it is very rare for people to change parties.  It gave the R's a net gain of 117 votes this year. 

[J. J.]

The net loss is likely due to interest in the D primaries in 2008 shifting to interest in the R primaries in 2012, wouldn't you think? Does Pennsylvania limit primary participation to that party?

No.    It was a net 113 vote gain for the R's. 

http://www.dos.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/voter_registration_statistics/12725

It is very rare for people to change parties in PA. 

Can't argue with the numbers, and there they are. I'm not terribly surprised, I suppose. I mean, there are a ton (a ton!) of D's in PA that have no business being D's whatsoever and probably never vote D.

I don't disagree, but that isn't the issue.

In 2008, Obama had a good ground game in PA, including voter registration.  It isn't here now.  In PA, you get purged from the rolls if you have not voted in two years.  I could not tell you the racial makeup of who has been purged, but the turnout for the intervening elections, in my precinct, has been low.  I would think that some have been purged. 

[JFK-Democrat]

I wonder if Democrats are going to open up a lead in Florida after today or tomorrows early vote totals are calculated? Its seems evident that this state will be a 1-2% assuming Mitt is still leading nationally the weekend before Nov 6th. Otherwise expect Obama to win this state with the same margin as 2008!

[Lief 🗽]

They should, especially after Sunday, with the big focus by black churches on getting their congregations to the polls after service.

[Cliffy]

Here's a link to VA early voting stats being kept by Charlie Cook
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdGhrcnotRXU3SzZUcERPMW1JSWY5Q3c#gid=0

Mccain counties are up, the bad news for Obama is Fairfax, Arlington, and Richmond City are experiencing big early voting drops and all were where he got a lot of raw votes last time.

[Brittain33]

I recall Ed Rendell recruiting tens of thousands of party switchers in 2002.

[Lief 🗽]

Yeah, a lot of people switched to vote in the 2008 Democratic primary as well.

[J. J.]

I recall Ed Rendell recruiting tens of thousands of party switchers in 2002.

It depends on your definition of "a lot."  That could mean several thousand in PA terms.  200-300  has been known to make news in a congressional district. 

[Lief 🗽]

Dems added another 5,000 to their margin in Clark County today. Romney will surely do better in Washoe this time around, but it's looking like Obama won't drop that much from his 2008 margin in Clark at least.

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 8

D: 14424
R: 9657
I: 5829

Total: 29910

[Tender Branson]

Dems added another 5,000 to their margin in Clark County today. Romney will surely do better in Washoe this time around, but it's looking like Obama won't drop that much from his 2008 margin in Clark at least.

So, about Obama by 5-10. Or what Mellman said.

I think the underpolling of Hispanics likely continues ...

[Brittain33]

I recall Ed Rendell recruiting tens of thousands of party switchers in 2002.

It depends on your definition of "a lot."  That could mean several thousand in PA terms.  200-300  has been known to make news in a congressional district. 

It's a matter of public record.

[J. J.]

I recall Ed Rendell recruiting tens of thousands of party switchers in 2002.

It depends on your definition of "a lot."  That could mean several thousand in PA terms.  200-300  has been known to make news in a congressional district. 

It's a matter of public record.

The public record shows a 14,000 vote drop of Republicans  in May 2002.  http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt?open=514&objID=572645&mode=2

Now, that is a lot for PA, but no where near "tens of thousands." 

[BaldEagle1991]

Early voting this Saturday seems to be big in Georgia, with long lines:











http://www.ajc.com/news/news/heavy-turnout-for-saturday-voting/nSp2H

Judging by the demographics of the lines, this is probably College Park, GA.

[fldemfunds]

Florida Dems, we're holding our own:

1 day after early voting Dems cut lead in half w/out AfAm heavy Duval County reporting

ht tp://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-16m-floridians-having-voted-dems-cut-gop-absentee-vote-lead-in-half-in-1st-early-vote-day.html

[Tender Branson]

Florida Dems, we're holding our own:

1 day after early voting Dems cut lead in half w/out AfAm heavy Duval County reporting

ht tp://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/with-16m-floridians-having-voted-dems-cut-gop-absentee-vote-lead-in-half-in-1st-early-vote-day.html

No, that can't be. Krazen told us other things ...

[fldemfunds]

Tis true. Lines are hours long and Souls to the Polls starts at 1-2pm, so things will pick up even more today. Florida is definitely in play more than the polls show.

It does not seem like there has been a huge drop off of volume of early vote, even with the increased absentee for Dems.