The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Fantastic news! Hopefully black turnout is huge today across the country. It's no coincidence that Obama made a photo op out of taking his daughters to church this morning.

[J. J.]

NC: 

Dem    49.5%
Rep    31.1%
None/Oth    19.4%
Age    
18-29    10.7%
30-44    18.0%
45-59    28.9%
60+    42.3%
Race    
White    66.4%
Black    28.9%
Other    4.7%
Gender    
Female    55.9%
Male    43.1%
Unk.    1.0%

Black turnout is declining.  Youngs are doing better, but still well below their 2008 numbers.

[Lief 🗽]

Good thing Jesse Jackson's flying down there to turn them out.

[Cliffy]

NC: I didn't put these #s together, swiped off another site.

A. Raw Vote Comparison
2012/2008/Diff.
Dem.- 726,400/671,700/ +54,700
Rep.- 456,300/ 338,500/ +117,800
Ind.- 282,500/ 209,900/ + 72,600

B.Percentage Change
Dem.- 49.5/ 55.0/ -5.5
Rep.- 31.1/ 27.8/ +3.3
Ind.- 19.3/ 17.2/ +2.1

NC: 

Dem    49.5%
Rep    31.1%
None/Oth    19.4%
Age    
18-29    10.7%
30-44    18.0%
45-59    28.9%
60+    42.3%
Race    
White    66.4%
Black    28.9%
Other    4.7%
Gender    
Female    55.9%
Male    43.1%
Unk.    1.0%

Black turnout is declining.  Youngs are doing better, but still well below their 2008 numbers.

[Lief 🗽]

Turnout was down in Clark today for some reason, but Democrats still increased their lead by 3000 to about 47,000.

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 9

D: 11248
R: 8272
I: 4967

Total: 24487

[J. J.]

Just looking at Clark Co early voting, here is the 2008 final

Dem
   52.0%
Rep
   30.6%
No/Oth
   17.4%

As of 10/27, the in person voting is:

D 49.9
R 32.0
I 18.1

I didn't add in the absentee voting, but it seems to running the same or better for the R's.

Washoe is currently:

D 27365
R 25814
O 11019
D 42.6
R 40.2
O 17.2

In 2008, the final was:

Dem
   52.0%
Rep
   30.6%
No/Oth
   17.4%

The gap there has closed by 21.4 points. 

[Ljube]

Just looking at Clark Co early voting, here is the 2008 final

Dem
   52.0%
Rep
   30.6%
No/Oth
   17.4%

As of 10/27, the in person voting is:

D 49.9
R 32.0
I 18.1

I didn't add in the absentee voting, but it seems to running the same or better for the R's.

Washoe is currently:

D 27365
R 25814
O 11019
D 42.6
R 40.2
O 17.2

In 2008, the final was:

Dem
   52.0%
Rep
   30.6%
No/Oth
   17.4%

The gap there has closed by 21.4 points. 

That's not enough.

[Holmes]

J.J., you have the same 2008 numbers for Clark and Washoe, mang.

[krazen1211]

Iowa today:


R: 135091
D: 192435
I: 95586

R: 31.9%
D: 45.4%
I: 22.6%

R: 151007
D: 209750
I: 109493

R: 32.1%
D: 44.5%
I: 23.2%

[Brittain33]

Interesting. Republicans are closing the gap in percentage terms, but Dems maintain and expand it in absolute terms.

[krazen1211]

Interesting. Republicans are closing the gap in percentage terms, but Dems maintain and expand it in absolute terms.

Yes, that is the pattern. For the record, in the past 3 presidential elections, registered Democrats have been at 79% turnout while registered Republicans have been at 81% turnout. The GOP put up a 70k margin on election day 2004 to counter -53k in early voting.

[Torie]

In other news, the Pub chat or spin or however one chooses to characterize it, is that the Pubs are getting to the polls early their low propensity voters, while the Dems are just cannibalizing their high propensity voters, perhaps just for the optics. So there! 

[cavalcade]

In other news, the Pub chat or spin or however one chooses to characterize it, is that the Pubs are getting to the polls early their low propensity voters, while the Dems are just cannibalizing their high propensity voters, perhaps just for the optics. So there! 

Pretty sure Axelrod has been claiming the opposite.

[Minnesota Mike]

Dem turnout in Florida has passed Rep turnout.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/02d4625f10044a63b22796a30f29eee4/FL--Early-Voting

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Only took 2 days to wipe out Rep advantage in Absentees.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting. Republicans are closing the gap in percentage terms, but Dems maintain and expand it in absolute terms.

Dems have expanded it every single day in absolute terms since Early Voting started.

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

[J. J.]

Interesting. Republicans are closing the gap in percentage terms, but Dems maintain and expand it in absolute terms.

There are a number of counties where we don't have separate numbers.

[J. J.]

Dem turnout in Florida has passed Rep turnout.

http://www.therepublic.com/view/story/02d4625f10044a63b22796a30f29eee4/FL--Early-Voting

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Only took 2 days to wipe out Rep advantage in Absentees.

To be expected, because of the changes in the times of early voting. 

[J. J.]

O'Malley cancels early voting for today and tomorrow in MD. 

[5280]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

I think Romney can pull this off in the end, but it will be down to the wire.

[Ljube]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

I think Romney can pull this off in the end, but it will be down to the wire.

The early voting is OK so far. I think Romney will win, but by a very slim margin. His margin in Colorado will be smaller than his national margin.

Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray

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[Ljube]

Clark County Day 10

D: 14113
R: 12492
I: 6352

Total 32957

[5280]

If Romney gets a 5 pt uniform swing in 2012, he wins CO by a hair margin

CO:
Romney: 49.71%
Obama: 48.66%

[Franzl]

If Romney gets a 5 pt uniform swing in 2012, he wins CO by a fair margin.

Do you not see your error?