The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Romney gets a 5 pt uniform swing in 2012, he wins CO by a fair margin.

Do you not see your error?

Yeah... political statistics are not your strong suit are they?

[J. J.]

A swing, in the UK sense of the word, of about 4.5 points would give Romney CO.

[Franzl]

A swing, in the UK sense of the word, of about 4.5 points would give Romney CO.

So what? That's not what the numbers from Colorado, that he was refering to, indicate.

[J. J.]

A swing, in the UK sense of the word, of about 4.5 points would give Romney CO.

So what? That's not what the numbers from Colorado, that he was refering to, indicate.

I'm not certain what then he was talking about. 

[krazen1211]

North Carolina.

Yep, Obama is finished.


2012:

D: 835773 (49.3%)
R: 531134 (31.3%)
I: 329992 (19.4%)

White: 1131731 (66.6%)
Black: 486899 (28.6%)
Other: 81510 (4.8%)

2008:

D: 795442 (54.7%)
R: 406830 (27.9%)
I: 251487 (17.2%)

White: 984076 (67.7%)
Black: 412303 (28.3%)
Other: 58279 (4.0%)

[Franzl]

A swing, in the UK sense of the word, of about 4.5 points would give Romney CO.

So what? That's not what the numbers from Colorado, that he was refering to, indicate.

I'm not certain what then he was talking about. 

COLORADO: Early vote stands at 39%R, 36%D with about 20k vote lead for GOP. Dems led 2008 by 2% or 31k in 2008, GOP led by 16k in 2004.

Since this was a couple of posts above his comment, I'm strongly assuming this. (And the 5% meaning the change from D+2 to R+3.

The problem is that this is not a 5% swing in the sense he interpreted it to mean.

[J. J.]

North Carolina.

Yep, Obama is finished.


2012:

D: 835773 (49.3%)
R: 531134 (31.3%)
I: 329992 (19.4%)

White: 1131731 (66.6%)
Black: 486899 (28.6%)
Other: 81510 (4.8%)

2008:

D: 795442 (54.7%)
R: 406830 (27.9%)
I: 251487 (17.2%)

White: 984076 (67.7%)
Black: 412303 (28.3%)
Other: 58279 (4.0%)

Please that this is a same point in time comparison.

Several observations:

1.  While the electorate is slightly blacker that it was 2008, it is substantially older, so far, with a two year higher median age.  Comparing it to end results the under 45 crowd makes up 9 points less of the electorate.

2.  During this week in 2008, there was an influx of Republican voters along with younger voters.

3.  It is obviously a more Republican electorate, but it is in terms of raw numbers as well as share of the electorate.  In NC, that increase is more than three times Obama's final MOV.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My clan of four voted yesterday. Two of them were not voters back in 2008.

[Simfan34]

0:08, my hope

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP47VpYsN9w

[krazen1211]

The GOP is soaring in Nevada.

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/day-10-republicans-have-most-robust-day-yet-clark-still-trail-48000-voters#.UI_y2m_A8l8

[J. J.]

The GOP is soaring in Nevada.

http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/day-10-republicans-have-most-robust-day-yet-clark-still-trail-48000-voters#.UI_y2m_A8l8

The gap is still 8 points closer in Clark than the final in 2008. 

[krazen1211]

R: 151007
D: 209750
I: 109493

R: 32.1%
D: 44.5%
I: 23.2%

Iowa

R: 159866
D: 219778
I: 117485

R: 32.2%
D: 44.2%
I: 23.6%

[J. J.]

R: 151007
D: 209750
I: 109493

R: 32.1%
D: 44.5%
I: 23.2%

R: 159866
D: 219778
I: 117485

R: 32.2%
D: 44.2%
I: 23.6%

NV? 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think that is Iowa.

[pepper11]

R: 151007
D: 209750
I: 109493

R: 32.1%
D: 44.5%
I: 23.2%

Iowa

R: 159866
D: 219778
I: 117485

R: 32.2%
D: 44.2%
I: 23.6%

Compared to O8?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think he is comparing it to the previous day.

[krazen1211]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

[Ljube]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Democrats have 80000 more requests, so it's a done deal.

[Gass3268]

Is there anyway for the next few days before the election if at the end of the night when all of the early voting reports are in that we could get one post with all of the results on it? That would be super convenient! Thanks!

[Ljube]

Is there anyway for the next few days before the election if at the end of the night when all of the early voting reports are in that we could get one post with all of the results on it? That would be super convenient! Thanks!

Tender Branson can edit his first post and include all totals.

[J. J.]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Ah, in 2008, it was +86,000. 

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Ah, in 2008, it was +86,000. 

Do you want a gold star sticker? What's your point?

[Minnesota Mike]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Ah, in 2008, it was +86,000. 

And in 2008 Obama won Iowa by 146K.

[J. J.]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Ah, in 2008, it was +86,000. 

Do you want a gold star sticker? What's your point?

The same as yours.