The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[SirMuxALot]

AFAIK you are only registered with a party in Ohio if you voted in the primary for it in either 2010 or 2012.

This is the second time I've seen this claim in this thread.  What is the basis for it?

The link from the Ohio laws posted earlier (http://codes.ohio.gov/orc/3513.19) was a section of law that determines party affiliation in the case of a challenge to eligibility to vote at a primary election.  There is nothing in that section of code to indicate that the same criteria will be applied somehow to someone's existing registration.

So where is the idea that Ohio automagically re-registers voters or somehow changes existing affiliations at some point between election cycles coming from?  Not saying it's wrong, but where is this spelled out?

[SirMuxALot]

Blowing up the "19% of Ohioans have already voted" poll finding:

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/14/watch-out-for-phony-early-vote-numbers-in-ohio/

[SirMuxALot]

oh cool, more pollster conspiracy theories, that's just what this forum needs

Right, so now it's a conspiracy theory to point out that PPP gets 19% of OH has already voted, but the OH SoS says about 5-6% have?  Just because I point out PPP got a bad result doesn't mean I think it's intentional or conspiratorial.

Oh right, the OH SoS is that evil Republican Husted.  He's to be trusted less than a pollster.

One of us is pushing a conspiracy theory here, but it isn't me...

[SirMuxALot]

So, it means that Democrats have actually requested MORE ballots in percentage terms than Republicans.

That would only be true if the absentee vote ends up being more than 41.7% of the total vote.  Is that at all likely?

[SirMuxALot]

   The SUSA poll that came out yesterday of Ohio had 18% of total voters saying they had already voted. 

Interesting.  Since a previous OH poll had 19% already voted, it looks 1% of Ohioans chased down their local mailman, grabbed the mail bag off his shoulder or broke into his van, found the envelope they already mailed, and took it back home with them.

I think the pollsters will need a screening question set for "likely un-voters".

[SirMuxALot]

I'm hoping you're just kidding around, because...margin of error.

Of course, I'm kidding, but just to extend this...

What is the margin of error on the "already voted" component?  How does the polling outfit screen out the crowd  who says they've voted but really haven't?

I only point this out because the previous poll that arrived at the 19% conclusion was a few days before the Ohio Secretary of State was reporting about 5.5% already voted (absentee + in-person early).

So unless the margin of error there is +/-13.5%...

[SirMuxALot]

Democratic precincts at 98% of 2008 turnout is also pretty fantastic. Virginia will be close either way.

Actually, it's arguably terrible.  Considering the last three elections in a row saw total turnout in the state increase each year by an average of 15.5%.

So if your party's turnout was 115.5% of 2008, you're probably merely keeping pace with population increase.  But if you're at 98% of 2008, well...