The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Brittain33]

I'm not really sure if it matters who wins the Indiana Senate race. Either way you're going to get someone who acts, talks and votes like a Republican.

And don't talk to me about control of the Senate! We all know this seat isn't going to be the deciding factor when it comes to that.

Control of the senate matters in 2014... while I didn't care for how Bayh handled his centrism (there's a right way to do it and then there's an ineffective or corrupt way to do it), a centrist Indiana Dem is different from a hard right Indiana Republican, the same way that I'm very much down on Scott Brown, but he's distinguishable from Saxby Chambliss. I'll probably resent Donnelly a lot of he's elected but I still want him over Mourdock.

[Brittain33]

Interesting to see non-Hispanic white absolute numbers be static or dropping in most states from 2008.

[Brittain33]

Interesting to see non-Hispanic white absolute numbers be static or dropping in most states from 2008.

Ah, there must be a lot of black and Hispanic Republicans.  OH, NC, and IA (barely) are closer than 2008, so far.

Well, that's a weird way of making that inferences.

Well, strictly in terms of the party of people applying for absentee ballots, R's have been improving in terms of percentage of the electorate.

The number of people applying for absentee ballots is a subset of the total number of voters, right? Just to be sure we're on the same page?

[Brittain33]

Thanks. I'm still trying to understand how you're getting to there being more black and Hispanic republicans (even sarcastically) from the number of non-Hispanic white voters being steady, even if there's some marginal improvement in absentee ballot requests from Rs or something. Help me understand.

[Brittain33]

Romney has a 25k absentee ballot head start in CO.

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/11/analysis-romney-starts-with-25000-vote-head-start-in-colorado/#more-3902

That link gave me a headache. I don't know what he is claiming or how he documents it. The graph is misleading, too.

[Brittain33]

The Washington Post says things look good for Dems so far:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/

[Brittain33]

Sounds good, Romney can improve marginally over McCain, win NC, and lose the election.

[Brittain33]

Not all, no, but the big ones are. A cursory glance of the big counties shows that they aren't even close to 19%, let alone 21% as of 7 days ago.

Dan noted that counties don't always update their numbers daily and report them.

[Brittain33]

Larry Schweikart is a freeper who writes conservative history books and predicted a Blackwell win on FR because of the R strength he personally observed in SW Ohio.

[Brittain33]

J.J., I don't believe anyone will dispute that Republicans will do better this year than in 2008.

The problem is, stating this fact is banal. We know Republicans will do better. But the deficit to overcome in these states (except NC) is so enormous that statements like this are meaningless. Romney can win NC narrowly, lose Iowa narrowly, and lose Nevada by mid single digits and lost the election. There is simply no value in noting that Republicans are doing slightly better than in 2008, even if you talk about "trends" and "closing."

Also: Florida.

[Brittain33]

If the Dems have a higher margin than the Rs than last time, but are below their 2008 numbers, does the imply the Rs are also underperforming their '08 numbers, J.J.?

[Brittain33]

I'm not understanding the fuzziness. Either they are or they aren't no? Aside from predictions for next week.

[Brittain33]

I'm not understanding the fuzziness. Either they are or they aren't no? Aside from predictions for next week.

What part of "probably not," don't you understand? 

The use of the word "probably."

[Brittain33]

NC is now R +0.3 points over 2008 final.  D's are now running -9.4 points where they were at this point in time in 2008.  Sorry if some of you find that "fuzziness."   

No need to apologize, but I don't understand why you'd use one point of time as a reference for the Dems but a different point in time for the Republicans. What's the rationale for that? How are the R's doing compared to this point in time in 2008? How are the D's doing compared to the 2008 final?

[Brittain33]

From what I can tell, there is a higher black voter turnout.  Obama appears to be losing white Democrats in NC, in terms of turnout.  That does not bode well nationally. 

Yes, if Obama can't win the votes of southern whites registered as Democrats, he's utterly screwed in Ohio and Nevada.

[Brittain33]

Nevada turnout so far:

Dem 48.6%
Rep 35.4%
Ind 15.9%

Poll data on how early voters have voted (ARG, a favorable poll for Romney):

Obama: 57%
Romney: 43%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NV12.html

If Romney is only splitting Indys with Obama, he's doomed in Nevada.

[Brittain33]

Today NBC moved NV to lean Obama from tossup. Chuck Todd and Jon Ralston talked about how the early vote, demographics and the Las Vegas area unions are taking NV out of play for Romney. But Romney is visiting Reno today I think, so they havent given up yet.

Romney can't be seen to be giving up. His strategy now is 100% confidence to generate momentum, because if the election were held today, he'd lose the EV even if he won the PV.

[Brittain33]

TX early voting on the first day is already a lot higher than on the first day in 2008.

379.000 vs. 347.000

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/oct22.shtml

Good luck identifying trends there other than that Republicans are voting strongly in absentee. Hidalgo County and El Paso County are at opposite ends of the spectrum.

[Brittain33]

Voter turnout for D/R almost exactly parallels their registration ratios. Unaffiliateds are voting much less, naturally.

Looking at the counties by population (half-assed way to do it, but whatever) but it sure looks like Republican areas are doing better than Dem areas. Depends on how well Obama does with the Indys or what happens between now and Election Day.

[Brittain33]

North Carolina:


D: 51.2%
R: 30.2%
I: 18.4%



2008:

D: 56.44%
R: 27.0%
I: 16.5%



Now we know why Obama is silently pulling out of North Carolina. He has collapsed among whites. Back then 27% of the votes were cast by white Democrats and that's down to 20%.

The overall white share of the electorate has dropped, and the share that is white D has dropped more because elderly Democrats are dying out and younger people are more likely to register Independent, including minorities. Plus the fact that Obama's not doing as well as 2008 and probably isn't winning NC. But you're taking that number out of context.

[Brittain33]

The problem for you is that those others are not voting, nor are the youngs. Median age of voter is higher in 2012 than 2008.

Well, I won't argue 2012 is going to be 2008. The question is whether things have swung far enough for Romney to match Reagan '84 levels among white voters, which is what he needs to simply break even in a more diverse country. The signs are that it's not happening outside of the south. Obama will likely lose NC (but put up a good fight) and I wouldn't bet on either FL or VA unless his ground game is as good as they say, but he's still favored to win reelection right now, and NV looks to be solidifying behind him.  

Similarly, I'm not counting on Colorado as part of Obama's coalition unless he's having a good night.

[Brittain33]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.

[Brittain33]

In North Carolina others have gone from 218k voters (3.4% of total registration) to 523k voters (7.9% of total registration), among the largest proportional increases in the nation over the last 4 years. Yet they are still at 1% of the vote, same as 2008.

Discern from that what you will.

Not sure what you mean. 4.5% of early voters are listed outside of white and African-American categories in NC. And presumably some Hispanic voters are identifying with those categories.

I am using these links right here.

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2008/custom/3016263258/

I'm using this one:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Your data source is missing something. It shows literally 1 "other" voter in Mecklenburg County.

[Brittain33]

Adrian Gray: Virginia: Base precincts (60%+) for GOP turning at 124% of current 2008 levels. DEM precincts are at 98%. In other words, GOP doing well.

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won

If this increase carries over to final vote totals (which you can't do, but whatever) Romney edges Obama by 4,000 votes in Virginia. Which is better than losing, but shows what a hole he's digging out of.  

[Brittain33]

No, that can't be. J.J. told me that black voters weren't very enthusiastic this year.

Actually, I've been noting that black turnout was higher in NC for a while.  It is also older there.

J.J., have you commented on lack of enthusiasm in your neighborhood?