The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Ljube]

Okay, I think I found results for yesterday for Clark County. (The data from the Clark County government site is in .exe format which I can't open on my Mac, so I had to hunt around the internet and finally found a right-wing blog that looked semi-legit.)

Democrats: 14,934
Republicans: 9,725
Other: 5,900

So, as should be obvious, more Democrats than Republicans voted in Clark County yesterday.

That's expected. But more important than that is the final Democratic advantage. What's the threshold between a Democratic win and a Republican win? Is it 60000?

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 7:

Dem: 13862
Rep: 10161
Ind: 5766

Total: 29789

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 8

D: 14424
R: 9657
I: 5829

Total: 29910

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 9

D: 11248
R: 8272
I: 4967

Total: 24487

[Ljube]

Just looking at Clark Co early voting, here is the 2008 final

Dem
   52.0%
Rep
   30.6%
No/Oth
   17.4%

As of 10/27, the in person voting is:

D 49.9
R 32.0
I 18.1

I didn't add in the absentee voting, but it seems to running the same or better for the R's.

Washoe is currently:

D 27365
R 25814
O 11019
D 42.6
R 40.2
O 17.2

In 2008, the final was:

Dem
   52.0%
Rep
   30.6%
No/Oth
   17.4%

The gap there has closed by 21.4 points. 

That's not enough.

[Ljube]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

I think Romney can pull this off in the end, but it will be down to the wire.

The early voting is OK so far. I think Romney will win, but by a very slim margin. His margin in Colorado will be smaller than his national margin.

Here's a tweet from Adrian Gray

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[Ljube]

Clark County Day 10

D: 14113
R: 12492
I: 6352

Total 32957

[Ljube]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Democrats have 80000 more requests, so it's a done deal.

[Ljube]

Is there anyway for the next few days before the election if at the end of the night when all of the early voting reports are in that we could get one post with all of the results on it? That would be super convenient! Thanks!

Tender Branson can edit his first post and include all totals.

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 11

D: 13014
R: 10097
I: 6029

Total: 29140

[Ljube]

Iowa polls are meaningless now.

[Ljube]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

Sounds like Obama is soaring among Indies!

We know Iowa “Indies” are pro Obama. That’s why I called Iowa for Obama already.

[Ljube]

Iowa polls are meaningless now.

Why, did the hurricane hit Iowa?

Too many people voting early = impossible to poll properly.

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 12

D: 13083
R: 8924
I: 6017

Total: 28024

[Ljube]

Total in Nevada including all counties and all votes (early and absentee):

D: 235514
R: 200678
I: 96872

10/31/2012 data not included.

[Ljube]

Democrats have 80000 requests more.

[Ljube]

Big day for Dems in Clark, as they added 6000 to their margin and are now over 60k total. Republicans netted about 200 votes in Washoe and it's still basically tied there. Early voting ends tomorrow.

I'm sure that's what Obama was hoping for when he campaigned there the other day.

Campaigning obviously matters. A lot.

[Ljube]

Very good simplified analysis of who is winning early voting. Its from the Atlantic, who has had strong learn to the left for the last 5 years. But it seems to be a very fair analysis.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/whos-really-winning-early-voting/264436/

NC- Romney
FL - Romney
CO - Romney

IA - Obama
NV - Obama

OH- possibly Obama (but she really bases this on polling, not voting)

VA, WI, MI, PA, NH - draw or inconclusive or doesn't matter b/c there is minimal early vote.

I made the same conclusions.

[Ljube]

Arizona doesn't publish early vote numbers at all, as far as I can tell. Texas does, but there's no party registration in Texas, so all they publish are the county by county vote totals.

Wow, Republicans won Washoe today by five votes. Super close!

Remember the old rule: As goes Washoe, so goes Nevada.

[Ljube]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

[Ljube]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

What's your final prediction? Mine is Obama +4.