The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

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Romney has a 25k absentee ballot head start in CO.

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/11/analysis-romney-starts-with-25000-vote-head-start-in-colorado/#more-3902

[5280]

GOP charges out of the gate in Colorado.


http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/19/file_attachments/168826/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B19%2B2012.pdf



D: 8516
R: 10884
I: 5727


D: 33.6%
R: 42.9%
I: 23.6%

I see Obama is slightly ahead in Jefferson county.  How is Romney going to win CO without Jefferson? Everything else gives you a general idea how the state will turnout.

[5280]

Here's an update for Colorado early voting...


D - 120965
R - 126539
I - 75030

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/24/file_attachments/169989/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B24%2B2012.pdf

So far the GOP is ahead in all swing counties.

[5280]

As of today in Colorado

Total:
 
R: 187,824 (39.7%)
D: 171,971 (36.3%)
U: 108,421 (22.9%)
 
Mail-In/Absentee Ballots
 
R: 172,461
D: 158,139
U: 98,532
 
Early Voting
 
R: 15,363
D: 13,832
U: 9,889

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

[5280]

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

Where?

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

[5280]

As of today in Colorado

Total:
 
R: 187,824 (39.7%)
D: 171,971 (36.3%)
U: 108,421 (22.9%)
 
Mail-In/Absentee Ballots
 
R: 172,461
D: 158,139
U: 98,532
 
Early Voting
 
R: 15,363
D: 13,832
U: 9,889

Colorado has Romney winning Unaffiliateds 43/39

According to this narrative, Ken Buck would have won in 2010:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He did not.

Besides, the SUSA poll for CO Indies you are quoting was conducted just after the 1st debate, so things might have changed in favor of Obama again. Especially CO Indies, which are a Obama-leaning folk. If Romney led by just 4 after the 1st debate, there's a good chance Obama is leading again by big margins with them.

CO Indies are not Obama leaning folks, that's a false hope which isn't true. Secondly, Romney isn't a Ken Buck so stop bringing that up, it's tiring and an old comparison. Ken Buck lost because he was a far right social con.

[5280]

According to a Colorado Peak Politics source with access to ballot return numbers, the figures are as follows:

Total:

R: 187,824 (39.7%)

D: 171,971 (36.3%)

U: 108,421 (22.9%)

Mail-In/Absentee Ballots

R: 172,461

D: 158,139

U: 98,532

Early Voting

R: 15,363

D: 13,832

U: 9,889

http://coloradopeakpolitics.com/2012/10/25/oct-25-ballot-returns-republicans-grow-lead-winning-absentee-and-early-voting/

I posted that this morning, but yeah those are good numbers.  Keep it up!

[5280]

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/26/file_attachments/170739/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B26%2B2012.pdf


R: 244253 (39.0%)
D: 225850 (36.1%)
I: 149877 (23.9%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/29/file_attachments/171536/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B29%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 1/3 of the vote is in.

D: 289733 (36.0%)
R: 309221 (38.5%)
I: 197308 (24.5%)

I think Romney can pull this off in the end, but it will be down to the wire.

[5280]

If Romney gets a 5 pt uniform swing in 2012, he wins CO by a hair margin

CO:
Romney: 49.71%
Obama: 48.66%

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http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/10/30/file_attachments/171833/Gen%2BTurnout%2B10%2B30%2B2012.pdf

Roughly 40% of the vote is in.


D: 343721 (35.5%)
R: 370982 (38.4%)
I: 241294 (25.0%)

R: 439269 (38.2%)
D: 404870 (35.2%)
I: 295112 (25.6%)


R's gaining in relative and absolute terms.

It's a glorious day!

Good news, hope it stays like this or the gap widens until election night.

Secondly, why is Denver and Boulder county high on Democrat turnout? Where is the GOP in thouse counties?

[5280]

CO looks ok so far for Obama Romney.

Remember that the final early vote in 2010 was R+6 and Bennet won by 1. Secondly, 2010 is not 2012, expect different results.

In 2008, the final early vote was D+1.5 and Obama won by 9. Democrat enthusiasm was higher in 2008 than 2012.
Currently it's R+3 in the early vote. Which would point to a Obama Romney 3-4% winning margin.

Remember that CO Indies are an Obama-leaning folk in 2008. In 2012, undecideds will break for the challenger.

Fixed

[5280]

romney up 36k in Co, not counting independents

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/11/01/file_attachments/172596/Gen%2BTurnout%2B11%2B01%2B2012.pdf

GOP ahead in all swing counties still.  I think Romney will win CO around 45-49% of the vote.

[5280]

Colorado

Total ballots cast as of November 2: 1,462,163
 
R – 547,150 (37.4%)
 
D – 509,091 (34.8%)
 
U – 390,875 (26.7%)

http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/COSOS/2012/11/02/file_attachments/172876/Gen%2BTurnout%2B11%2B02%2B2012.pdf

[5280]

Does anybody know how Arizona & Texas is doing with early voting?  I'd assume it has a good turnout for the GOP in both states.

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Anybody going to answer my question?