Rasmussen Poll of Wisconsin: Romney-Ryan 48%, Obama-Biden 47%
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  Rasmussen Poll of Wisconsin: Romney-Ryan 48%, Obama-Biden 47%
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Poll of Wisconsin: Romney-Ryan 48%, Obama-Biden 47%  (Read 4869 times)
H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #25 on: August 16, 2012, 12:45:56 PM »

LOL @ Democrats who think Ryan is going the way of Palin (I can hear them already, "NATE SILVER HAS PROBABILITY AT BLA BLA BLA AND BS AVERAGES ACROSS BLA BLA BLA SO THIS POLL IS GARBAGE AND THE OBAMA LANDSLIDE IS IMMINENT! HAHA!")

Obviously GREAT News. This should spread throughout the rest of the Midwest as the campaign marches forward.
Huh. I seem to remember your side saying things a lot like that whenever Obama was up in, say, North Carolina.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #26 on: August 16, 2012, 12:47:08 PM »

Don't delude yourselves here guys.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #27 on: August 16, 2012, 01:36:00 PM »

Seriously, I know it's been a rough few months, but the excitement over Rasmussen showing Romney tied or up one in states like OH and Ryan's homestate of WI is really crazy to behold.
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opebo
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« Reply #28 on: August 16, 2012, 01:42:55 PM »


I'm not - Ryan is a serious problem.
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mondale84
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« Reply #29 on: August 16, 2012, 02:15:34 PM »


I'm not - Ryan is a serious problem.

Yeah, for Mitt Romney.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #30 on: August 16, 2012, 02:35:17 PM »

Gotta love the heavy spinning Scotty put on this:

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Problem is he reported in his June poll  Romney 47% Obama 44%.  Now maybe with a different rounding, that 47% is 46%, but that doesn't change the fact that he had Romney with a 3 point margin two months ago, and only a 1 point margin now.

Does Ryan help Romney here? Of course he does, but you can't prove it with Scotty's numbers.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #31 on: August 16, 2012, 03:03:15 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2012, 03:04:53 PM by MorningInAmerica »

Gotta love the heavy spinning Scotty put on this:

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Problem is he reported in his June poll  Romney 47% Obama 44%.  Now maybe with a different rounding, that 47% is 46%, but that doesn't change the fact that he had Romney with a 3 point margin two months ago, and only a 1 point margin now.

Does Ryan help Romney here? Of course he does, but you can't prove it with Scotty's numbers.

Not sure I see what part of that is spinning on "Scotty's" part, much less "heavy spinning." He doesn't say that "this is the Republican's largest MARGIN of support yet in the Bader State. He says "this is the Republican's largest LEVEL of support..." And that would be truth, not spin. Romney's highest level of support in Wisconsin at this point is 48%. He even illustrates that point in the second sentence you quoted.

And again, this pretending that Rasmussen is significantly worse than PPP is a fantasy. Nate Silver's full ratings list puts them 2 spots apart from each other out of about 60 different pollsters (they both rank relatively high). http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html  And Nate's recent article points to the fact that PPPs house effect this year has been much worse than "Scotty's." http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #32 on: August 16, 2012, 03:34:53 PM »

In June, when other polls were showing Obama up in the state by 5 or 6 percent, Rasmussen was showing Romney up by 3. In late July, Rasmussen showed Obama up only 3% in Wisconsin, while polls released around the same time had Obama doing significantly better, in the high single digits. For whatever reason, Rasmussen has been seeing a more Republican-leaning electorate in the state of Wisconsin than all other pollsters have for the past few months.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #33 on: August 16, 2012, 03:46:08 PM »

Gotta love the heavy spinning Scotty put on this:

Quote
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Problem is he reported in his June poll  Romney 47% Obama 44%.  Now maybe with a different rounding, that 47% is 46%, but that doesn't change the fact that he had Romney with a 3 point margin two months ago, and only a 1 point margin now.

Does Ryan help Romney here? Of course he does, but you can't prove it with Scotty's numbers.

Not sure I see what part of that is spinning on "Scotty's" part, much less "heavy spinning." He doesn't say that "this is the Republican's largest MARGIN of support yet in the Bader State. He says "this is the Republican's largest LEVEL of support..." And that would be truth, not spin. Romney's highest level of support in Wisconsin at this point is 48%. He even illustrates that point in the second sentence you quoted.

And again, this pretending that Rasmussen is significantly worse than PPP is a fantasy. Nate Silver's full ratings list puts them 2 spots apart from each other out of about 60 different pollsters (they both rank relatively high). http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-results.html  And Nate's recent article points to the fact that PPPs house effect this year has been much worse than "Scotty's." http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

MIA, since margin is what matters and not level, then most certainly referring to level instead of margin is spinning,   And where did I mention the relative inaccuracy of Rasmussen compared to other pollsters?  My post was solely about the spin Scott put on his own numbers.  My point was that even if one takes Scotty's numbers as being based on accurate model of likely voters, they can't prove a bounce.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #34 on: August 16, 2012, 03:59:11 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2012, 04:01:15 PM by MorningInAmerica »


MIA, since margin is what matters and not level, then most certainly referring to level instead of margin is spinning,   And where did I mention the relative inaccuracy of Rasmussen compared to other pollsters?  My post was solely about the spin Scott put on his own numbers.  My point was that even if one takes Scotty's numbers as being based on accurate model of likely voters, they can't prove a bounce.

Fair enough. Though by that same token, none of these polls can really prove anything. We'll have to wait three more months for proof.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #35 on: August 16, 2012, 04:57:30 PM »

People thought I wasn't serious when I said Wisconsin could very well be the closest state.
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J. J.
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« Reply #36 on: August 16, 2012, 05:16:02 PM »

WI has gone from "Safe D" to "toss-up."  Deal with it.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #37 on: August 16, 2012, 05:48:12 PM »

In June, when other polls were showing Obama up in the state by 5 or 6 percent, Rasmussen was showing Romney up by 3. In late July, Rasmussen showed Obama up only 3% in Wisconsin, while polls released around the same time had Obama doing significantly better, in the high single digits. For whatever reason, Rasmussen has been seeing a more Republican-leaning electorate in the state of Wisconsin than all other pollsters have for the past few months.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #38 on: August 16, 2012, 07:29:45 PM »

Guys, I'd like to tell you a story about my work as a Japanese major.

Last year, one of the major projects that I worked on was a long-ish paper for a class on Japanese popular culture in which I analyzed readership statistics and demographics for various Japanese magazines, mostly literary anthologies and manga, over the past few decades. The purpose of the paper was to demonstrate the vastly larger female periphery demographic for boys' magazines as compared to the male periphery demographic for girls' magazines and to develop several theories, which I left it as an exercise for my professor and the graduate students to determine the merits of, as to why this might be the case.

There were several points of data that did not at face value appear to corroborate my thesis, as well as several that, while they seemed helpful on the surface, in fact were not because of frankly any number of factors. For example, there were certain series running in shoujo (girls') magazines that had anecdotally significant male readerships (the general circulation of shoujo magazines does not usually rise above 10-12% male, whereas the circulation of shounen (boys') magazines is in the 35-45% female range). In each case there was something particular about these series that attracted these small but vocal male fanbases--Nana, for instance, has a variety of well-crafted and likable male characters beyond the usual romantic lead types, and also involves punk rock. (Compare this to Sex and the City, which, while it's now normally seen as a 'chick show' or a 'gay show', in fact had a straight male following in the day for reasons that I do not claim to fathom.) Strike Witches, meanwhile, had a following almost as overwhelmingly male as the shoujo magazines' was female, and this is because Strike Witches is a terrible series that I honestly can't think of a reason why almost any straight woman would enjoy.

Hence, the readership of the magazines was at least in part affected by the specifics of what was running in them at any given time and how it was being marketed. This did not mean that I could not arrive at general conclusions--indeed, I arrived at several, and theorized about several more. It did, however, mean that I had to be very careful to corroborate perceived trends across several magazines and preferably several years or even decades of readership statistics (where they were available; in some instances I did have to rely on mostly anecdotal scholarship, but I made sure to cite it from several sources).

I got an A for the paper and in the class.
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morgieb
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« Reply #39 on: August 16, 2012, 07:36:36 PM »

Didn't most people think that a poll would show this tight with Ryan as the Veep? Not surprised that Rassy says Romney is leading.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #40 on: August 17, 2012, 04:16:23 AM »

People thought I wasn't serious when I said Wisconsin could very well be the closest state.

And that remains incredibly unlikely.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #41 on: August 17, 2012, 06:03:46 AM »

Romney leading by 1 where he trailed by just 3 last month and was actually leading by 3 in June. And there's another poll where Obama leads by 4. Yes, surely, with Ryan, WI will be closer, but I still believe Obama will carry it.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #42 on: August 17, 2012, 06:51:10 AM »

LOL @ Democrats who think Ryan is going the way of Palin (I can hear them already, "NATE SILVER HAS PROBABILITY AT BLA BLA BLA AND BS AVERAGES ACROSS BLA BLA BLA SO THIS POLL IS GARBAGE AND THE OBAMA LANDSLIDE IS IMMINENT! HAHA!")

Well, he was more accurate than any of the pollsters in 2008, soooo...
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Sbane
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« Reply #43 on: August 17, 2012, 12:13:09 PM »

Can entire threads be infracted?
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Sbane
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« Reply #44 on: August 17, 2012, 12:16:24 PM »

By this time we usually have 10 dem responses aout howw great Obama is doing? Anyone?

You should stop making these types of comments. You are trying to get a rise out of people, which is textbook trolling.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #45 on: August 17, 2012, 12:32:59 PM »

By this time we usually have 10 dem responses aout howw great Obama is doing? Anyone?

You should stop making these types of comments. You are trying to get a rise out of people, which is textbook trolling.

No, he's not trolling. Did you not see what he was responding to?
But I suppose Tweed Sees the Truth's comment was just fine with you, and not "trying to get a rise out of people," or trolling at all? Is it just habit on this board to completely loathe people on the opposite side of the political spectrum as you?
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Sbane
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« Reply #46 on: August 17, 2012, 12:39:53 PM »

Ok new people, looks like you have met Tweed. No one takes him seriously. You want to be like him, be my guest. But you are not going to be taken seriously. Trolling should not be retaliated with more trolling (yeah, I'm looking at you Mondale 84).

Also I have seen Pepper make similar comments on other threads and they certainly are not appreciated. This is going beyond spiking the football, and actually trash talking the other team after scoring a touchdown (which I don't think this poll is but that's beside the point).
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #47 on: August 17, 2012, 12:42:54 PM »

Ok new people, looks like you have met Tweed. No one takes him seriously. You want to be like him, be my guest. But you are not going to be taken seriously. Trolling should not be retaliated with more trolling (yeah, I'm looking at you Mondale 84).

Also I have seen Pepper make similar comments on other threads and they certainly are not appreciated. This is going beyond spiking the football, and actually trash talking the other team after scoring a touchdown (which I don't think this poll is but that's beside the point).

I really don't care who is new and who isn't or who knows Tweed and who doesnt. You called someone a troll for calling someone out for their hypocrisy (most likely cause they have a blue avatar). You were wrong. Why not admit that.
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Sbane
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« Reply #48 on: August 17, 2012, 01:02:33 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2012, 01:05:07 PM by Senator Sbane »

Because it is trolling? Like I said, you can make excuses for why you were trolling, but it indeed is trolling.

Oh and another thing. Pretty unfair for newbies but we tend to excuse what old timers do here. It's just how it is. And no it is not on a partisan basis...you should learn about the saga of jmfcst. Just act more or less like mature individuals and you should be fine.
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Tricky Dickie
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« Reply #49 on: August 17, 2012, 02:27:10 PM »

Every topic on here seems to descend into trolling.
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