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Author Topic: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here  (Read 17424 times)
Badger
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« Reply #75 on: October 31, 2012, 09:39:23 am »

Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.

Yes, Badger, that is the good news for you. The bad news is that NV-04 is about three quarters of a point more Dem than the state as a whole (3.44% Dem PVI versus 2.68% Dem for NV as a whole).  Tongue

"Good news"? I'm merely calling Krazen out on yet another misleading post. Nothing more, nothing less.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #76 on: October 31, 2012, 01:32:04 pm »

Romney surges in Nevada in the latest poll!

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1028fb62-ff4a-4f44-aaa1-f8093e463df4



Romney 48
Obama 48

In NV-4 you mean? Get it right.

Yes, Badger, that is the good news for you. The bad news is that NV-04 is about three quarters of a point more Dem than the state as a whole (3.44% Dem PVI versus 2.68% Dem for NV as a whole).  Tongue

"Good news"? I'm merely calling Krazen out on yet another misleading post. Nothing more, nothing less.

Haha, what? The thread title is " Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here"

One would expect presidential polls for Congressional districts. Not only is NV-04 a close bellweather, it is nearly 30% of the vote of Nevada!

Of course Romney is surging!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #77 on: November 01, 2012, 12:57:38 am »

CA-52 (SurveyUSA):

48-45 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bda34d6c-8324-4cd9-92d5-3d8a4a9bfc46&c=37

How did it vote in 2008 ?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #78 on: November 01, 2012, 01:00:02 am »

Obama won it 55-43.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #79 on: November 01, 2012, 01:05:17 am »

Obama won it 55-43.

Hmm. That's odd.

A Obama+12 result would imply a Democratic leaning district.

But the sample is actually R+7 in SUSA's poll.

Either this district has become much more Republican with Democrats staying at home, or Obama has won Indies by 2:1 there in 2008 (he is about tied there right now).

Or the poll is wrong ...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #80 on: November 01, 2012, 01:10:22 am »

I don't know, maybe my numbers (from here) are wrong? The district's CPVI is only D+1.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #81 on: November 01, 2012, 12:15:27 pm »

Obama won it 55-43.

Hmm. That's odd.

A Obama+12 result would imply a Democratic leaning district.

But the sample is actually R+7 in SUSA's poll.

Either this district has become much more Republican with Democrats staying at home, or Obama has won Indies by 2:1 there in 2008 (he is about tied there right now).

Or the poll is wrong ...
This is San Diego's northern suburbia (some of it within city limits). This kind of place did swing VERY hard in 2008, and is highly likely to be swinging back far above the national average this year.
But probably not that far. To be polling below Romney must be ringing all the Drudge Sirens in Bilbray's campaign office, and is certainly not something I would have expected - or that Bilbray can afford.
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Torie
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« Reply #82 on: November 01, 2012, 02:22:40 pm »

CA-52 (SurveyUSA):

48-45 Romney

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bda34d6c-8324-4cd9-92d5-3d8a4a9bfc46&c=37

How did it vote in 2008 ?

It's 2008 PVI was Dem 3%, so it went about 56% for Obama, 43% for McCain, or something like that. This should be an area that does trend Pub vis a vis the nation, just like my CD right up the road will.
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Torie
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« Reply #83 on: November 01, 2012, 02:25:27 pm »

I don't know, maybe my numbers (from here) are wrong? The district's CPVI is only D+1.

56-43 (the numbers from the Kos link), makes it a Dem 3% PVI CD based on 2008. It would have had a lower Dem PVI for 2004.
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