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Author Topic: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here  (Read 18235 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 16, 2012, 12:50:36 pm »

PPP for DFA (CO-06):

President Barack Obama maintains a lead over GOP candidate Mitt Romney by 9 points with likely voters in Colorado’s Sixth Congressional District. The margin of error for the poll is 3.6%, making his lead well outside themargin of error.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/102957297/CO-6-Poll-numbers-8-15-12
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2012, 12:51:53 am »

NY-27 (Siena):

53-41 Romney

49-40 Gillibrand

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/120818104901_CD27%20Aug%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2012, 12:55:11 am »

The NYT notes that the new re-districted 27th voted for McCain by 53-44:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html

The district is also 93% White.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #3 on: August 25, 2012, 07:11:31 am »

I presume these are Congressional Race polls that also included presidential questions?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2012, 12:12:33 am »

According to a KING 5 poll, Obama is up 10 in WA-1.  This poll was from a month ago, but I haven't seen any since.  

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-TV-commercials-boost-DelBene-163966816.html


It's at the very bottom of the article.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2012, 01:06:16 pm »

Siena poll:

Obama leads by 50-45 in the newly drawn NY-21 district.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/CD21%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

The NYT says that Obama beat McCain by a similar 51-46 margin in this new disctrict:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/20/nyregion/new-york-redistricting.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2012, 01:21:47 pm »

Siena (NY-01):

47-47 Obama/Romney

2008: 51-47 Obama

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD01%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

Siena (NY-24):

55-36 Obama/Romney

2008: 55-41 Obama

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/CD24%20September%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2012, 06:45:38 am »

AZ-09/GBA Strategies (D):

President Obama leads Governor Romney here by a 50 – 44 percent margin.

Kyrsten Sinema holds a 4-point lead over Vernon Parker, 45 – 41 percent.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/az09_poll_release_091312.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2012, 01:09:57 pm »

NY-18 (Siena):

49-45 Romney

Was 52-46 Obama in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/18th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf

WA-01 (SurveyUSA):

47-47 Obama/Romney

I have no clue how this district voted in 2008. Maybe it's even newly drawn.

http://www.king5.com/news/up-front/polls/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2012, 06:16:24 am »

NY-19 (Siena):

Obama+4

Was Obama+7 in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/19th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%20Final.pdf
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2012, 11:14:46 am »
« Edited: September 23, 2012, 11:19:49 am by Torie »


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2012, 12:52:32 pm »

CA-30 (SurveyUSA):

63% Obama
30% Romney
  2% Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cfb7b7d8-1f9a-4998-8ff0-6d217daf1725

Does anyone know how this new district voted in 2008 ?
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2012, 01:59:58 pm »

CA-30 (SurveyUSA):

63% Obama
30% Romney
  2% Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cfb7b7d8-1f9a-4998-8ff0-6d217daf1725

Does anyone know how this new district voted in 2008 ?
66-31.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2012, 04:23:53 am »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 09:44:13 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »

Here's a map for the districts polled:




Sue me if I don't use the latest poll for WA-1, but the district was basically +15% Obama in 2008 so I highly doubt it will be tied this time.   So I went with the PPP poll instead, which was 50%-40% in Obama's favor (which makes a lots more sense considering what the statewide polls are saying).
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2012, 04:25:07 am »

We need moar polls!!!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2012, 05:18:48 am »


Here they are:

NY-11 (Siena)

49-45 Obama

Was 50-48 McCain in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/sri/11th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2012, 05:27:19 am »
« Edited: September 25, 2012, 05:30:50 am by Fuzzybigfoot »


Wow, so Obama could actually win Staten Island?  Dude.  



Edit: The map has been updated.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2012, 05:42:59 pm »

Here you have, fuzzy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=160026.0

IL-08: Obama 53 Romney 40.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2012, 06:43:18 pm »


Purple heart
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2012, 09:21:58 pm »

Does anyone have that poll for NE-2 which came out a few days ago?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2012, 11:58:36 pm »

Does anyone have that poll for NE-2 which came out a few days ago?

44-44 tie
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2012, 03:01:33 pm »

One of the recent Maine polls had results for the two districts.
https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2320120917191

CD 1
    Obama: 58.7%
    Romney: 33.9%
    Johnson: 1.6%
    Undecided: 5.8%
CD 2
    Obama: 47.8%
    Romney: 41.0%
    Johnson: 2.4%
    Undecided: 8.8%
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2012, 05:53:04 pm »

Thanks guys, the map has been updated.  Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2012, 02:32:46 pm »

NY-25 (Siena):

53-39 Obama

Was 58-40 Obama in 2008.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/25th%20CD%20September%202012%20Poll%20Release%201%20--%20FINAL.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2012, 02:37:22 pm »

CA-44/SurveyUSA:

71-19-3 Obama/Romney/Johnson

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=de36efa0-bdcd-40c5-a6da-b5c007b9e7ed
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