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  Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post random Presidential polls for Congressional Districts here  (Read 18052 times)
Fuzzybigfoot
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« on: August 29, 2012, 12:12:33 am »

According to a KING 5 poll, Obama is up 10 in WA-1.  This poll was from a month ago, but I haven't seen any since.  

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-TV-commercials-boost-DelBene-163966816.html


It's at the very bottom of the article.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2012, 04:23:53 am »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 09:44:13 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »

Here's a map for the districts polled:




Sue me if I don't use the latest poll for WA-1, but the district was basically +15% Obama in 2008 so I highly doubt it will be tied this time.   So I went with the PPP poll instead, which was 50%-40% in Obama's favor (which makes a lots more sense considering what the statewide polls are saying).
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 04:25:07 am »

We need moar polls!!!
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2012, 05:27:19 am »
« Edited: September 25, 2012, 05:30:50 am by Fuzzybigfoot »


Wow, so Obama could actually win Staten Island?  Dude.  



Edit: The map has been updated.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 06:43:18 pm »


Purple heart
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2012, 09:21:58 pm »

Does anyone have that poll for NE-2 which came out a few days ago?
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2012, 05:53:04 pm »

Thanks guys, the map has been updated.  Smiley
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2012, 12:48:27 pm »


It was only about +8% Obama in 2008:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Av8O-dN2giY6dGtYTV8xS2hHcXJnX0pOZkdCU2V1N2c#gid=0
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2012, 12:52:57 pm »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 09:43:51 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »

In progress:

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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2012, 12:59:26 pm »

So far, the polls show Romney picking up MI-1 and NY-18, while Obama flips NY-11 and FL-26.  Two Obama districts are tied (NY-1 and NE-2).
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2012, 03:17:17 pm »

Thanks Gass, the map has been updated.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2012, 03:09:47 am »

So let's see, Obama gains 8 in AZ-2 (flip), and 14 in NJ-2.  Romney gains 6 in NC-8.

The map has been updated.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2012, 03:11:11 am »

Btw, I decided to put AZ-2 at 40% Dem to be safe.  Tongue
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2012, 05:27:51 am »

This poll was released couple of weeks ago. I don't see it on your map, so I'll post it.

Siena (NY-21):

Obama 45 / Romney 40

Same poll shows Owens beating Doheny 49-36

lol sorry, I don't know how I missed that.  Thank you.  Smiley
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2012, 05:49:07 am »

The last poll from NC-07 was 61-32 Romney.

The PA-12 poll out a few days ago was 51-46 Romney.

Cool, updating the map now. 
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2012, 05:57:04 am »

Obama up 3 in MA-6 (48%-45%):

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/young-guns-poll-tisei-leads-tierney-136922.html


And Obama's up 13 in IL-17 (54%-41%):

http://www.scribd.com/doc/107620193/IL-17-GBA-Strategies-for-Cheri-Bustos-Sept-2012
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2012, 06:01:57 am »

The last poll from NC-07 was 61-32 Romney.

The PA-12 poll out a few days ago was 51-46 Romney.

Awesome, thanks.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2012, 03:58:31 am »

This poll is a bit dusty, from July, but its still seems realistic. Romney was up 53-45 in KY-06.

Thanks, the map has been updated.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2012, 03:59:30 am »

I wish we could get some polls from Ohio.  
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2012, 04:24:42 pm »

As usual, I have a few more polls Smiley

NV-03

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

Excellent, thanks!
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2012, 02:48:37 pm »

NY-27 (Siena):

51-42 Romney

Was 53-44 McCain in 2008.

The Buffalo News/WGRZ-TV/Siena College Poll
October 1-4, 2012
633 New York State Likely Voters Congressional District 27
MOE +/- 3.9%

http://www.wgrz.com/assetpool/documents/121006105816_CD27%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

Huh, that's actually an improvement from the last poll of NY-27.  It showed Romney leading by 12 or something. 
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2012, 06:43:18 pm »

As usual, I have a few more polls Smiley

NV-03

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%

MI-01

Obama- 48%
Romney- 48%

FL-10

Romney- 47%
Obama- 47%

NH-01

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

CA-10

Obama- 47%
Romney- 46%
These are the new districts?

Yep.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2012, 01:09:08 am »

VA-2 may have been atypically strong for McCain in Virginia because it's a naval district.

Not really, the old 2nd was 58%-42% for Bush, and it isn't all that different from the new one.



Anyways, I need to update the map!
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2012, 01:18:29 am »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 09:43:33 pm by Fuzzybigfoot »




lol at Obama winning VA-2 but losing MN-8.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2012, 07:09:56 pm »


It was 63%-36% McCain.


Here's a link from Daily Kos on all the disticts:  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/17/1051740/-Daily-Kos-Elections-complete-redistricting-resources?detail=hide


Smiley
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