Florida 2016-PPP: Clinton and Rubio lead their respective primaries

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_9512.pdf


Dems:

Clinton 67%
Biden 11%
Cuomo 8%
Warren 2%
O'Malley, Patrick, Schweitzer, and Warner all get 0%

If Clinton doesn't run:

Biden 31%
Cuomo 21%
Warren 8%
O'Malley 6%
Patrick 2%
Warner 2%
Schweitzer 0%

If neither Biden nor Clinton runs:

Cuomo 31%
Warren 10%
Patrick 7%
O'Malley 6%
Warner 3%
Schweitzer 0%

GOP:

Rubio 24%
Bush 22%
Rice 12%
Christie 10%
Huckabee 10%
Ryan 10%
Rand Paul 4%
Palin 3%
Santorum 1%

[Mr. Morden]

Favorability / unfavorability among members of their own party:

Clinton 84 / 11% for +73%
Biden 69 / 20% for +49%
Warren 28 / 9% for +19%
Cuomo 32 / 18% for +14%
Patrick 15 / 8% for +7%
Warner 11 / 9% for +2%
O'Malley 10 / 12% for -2%
Schweitzer 7 / 9% for -2%

Rice 90 / 6% for +84%
Bush 87 / 8% for +79%
Ryan 84 / 9% for +75%
Christie 71 / 13% for +58%
Huckabee 70 / 13% for +57%
Palin 66 / 23% for +43%
Santorum 60 / 19% for +41%
Rand Paul 52 / 25% for +27%

Do you approve of Sen. Rubio's job performance?
yes 87%
no 9%

Interestingly, this is the one state polled so far where some of the candidates on the GOP side are getting favorability numbers from their party comparable to or better than Clinton's numbers on the Dem. side.  But it doesn't translate into the enormous lead on the presidential poll question.  Florida Republicans love favorite sons Bush and Rubio, and they lead the primary horserace.  They give Rice even higher marks, but don't favor her as much to be president.

Also, once again, we see a big difference between the two parties on name recognition for the prospective 2016 candidates.  Clinton and Biden are well known, but the Dem. candidate with the 3rd highest name recognition is Cuomo, and only 50% have an opinion of him.  Meanwhile, the least well known candidate on the GOP side is Rand Paul, and 77% have an opinion of him.

On the GOP side, who leads among….
Tea Party members: Rubio
non-Tea Party members: Bush
not sure if Tea Party members: Rubio
Evangelicals: Rubio
non-Evangelicals: Bush
moderate: Bush
somewhat conservative: Bush
very conservative: Rubio
men: Rubio
women: Bush
Hispanics: Bush
Whites: Rubio
18-45 years old: Bush
46-65 years old: Rubio
over 65 years old: Bush/Rubio tie

[Orion0]

Very interesting that Bush leads over Rubio with Hispanics and women. Rubio could prove to be a Pyrite nominee for the GOP. Would be nice to see Martinez included in the polling, as I believe she has great appeal to both Rubio and Bush supporters.

[Cobbler]

I believe Rubio would fizzle if he ran for President, especially against Bush. I just don't think he has what it takes to run for President this soon.

[後援会]

Why are they bothering to poll Clinton? Every poll would read the same conclusion (she's winning everywhere). At least now.