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  NV-GHY/DSCC: Internal Democratic poll has Obama ahead by 5
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Author Topic: NV-GHY/DSCC: Internal Democratic poll has Obama ahead by 5  (Read 2802 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 17, 2012, 01:04:55 pm »

49-44 Obama

Berkley leads 44-42.

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/08/120816_file_survey_haberman.pdf
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Supersonic
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2012, 01:08:47 pm »

If an internal Democratic poll only has the President leading by five in Nevada, surely that isn't exactly good news for him.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2012, 01:09:39 pm »

Heller is really taking a beating on his votes for the Ryan budget and Medicare.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2012, 01:10:10 pm »

If an internal Democratic poll only has the President leading by five in Nevada, surely that isn't exactly good news for him.

Standard 5% underpolling factor because of the Hispanics and suckish state GOP applies here.

So, Obama+10 in reality.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2012, 01:52:55 pm »

It's an internal Democratic poll. I'm bettting if it was really Obama +10, they would have reported that.
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Tricky Dickie
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2012, 02:26:30 pm »

An internal Democratic Poll huh. Suspicious.
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Umengus
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2012, 04:08:30 pm »

party id of the sample: D +4
Cnn exit poll 2008: D +8

nevada Registered voters: D +4

Not a bad poll... Rasmussen gave the same 07/24
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2012, 04:11:52 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2012, 04:33:48 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2012, 04:43:32 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2012, 04:45:46 pm »

Romney at the Republican floor again as he is in most polling.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2012, 05:03:19 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Just curious. Any evidence (cites, etc) that Democrats "underpoll" in Nevada? Turnout in Nevada was R+4 in 2004, and as Umengus pointed out, D+8 in 2008. So where are we coming up with this "underpoll" thing (of course, besides your own personal speculation)?
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2012, 05:05:49 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Just curious. Any evidence (cites, etc) that Democrats "underpoll" in Nevada? Turnout in Nevada was R+4 in 2004, and as Umengus pointed out, D+8 in 2008. So where are we coming up with this "underpoll" thing (of course, besides your own personal speculation)?

/shrug. I know Reid overperforming the polls in 2010 against Angle fueled it, as he had a much better ground game than her. And I'm sure Obama's gonna have a much better ground game than Romney will in Nevada too, so.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2012, 05:06:09 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Basically this. Unless they feel very comfortable with the person they are talking to they will not tell. That only happens when they are face to face with someone and that efficiency will double with a fellow Latino. Something I am good with Smiley
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2012, 05:07:30 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Just curious. Any evidence (cites, etc) that Democrats "underpoll" in Nevada? Turnout in Nevada was R+4 in 2004, and as Umengus pointed out, D+8 in 2008. So where are we coming up with this "underpoll" thing (of course, besides your own personal speculation)?

/shrug. I know Reid overperforming the polls in 2010 against Angle fueled it, as he had a much better ground game than her. And I'm sure Obama's gonna have a much better ground game than Romney will in Nevada too, so.

The NV GOP is basically non-existent right now and the demographics has had a dramatic shift.
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« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2012, 05:07:43 pm »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Just curious. Any evidence (cites, etc) that Democrats "underpoll" in Nevada? Turnout in Nevada was R+4 in 2004, and as Umengus pointed out, D+8 in 2008. So where are we coming up with this "underpoll" thing (of course, besides your own personal speculation)?

I would submit that it's not so much underpolling as overperforming due to a very good Democratic political machine in the state, whereas the Republicans there are an absolute shambles.
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pikachu
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2012, 05:10:23 pm »

Even though it's an internal, the Senate numbers are giving me more hope for a pick-up now. IIRC, pretty much everything else has shown Heller+3 or something around that so this is a nice surprise...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2012, 05:23:11 pm »

Just curious. Any evidence (cites, etc) that Democrats "underpoll" in Nevada? Turnout in Nevada was R+4 in 2004, and as Umengus pointed out, D+8 in 2008. So where are we coming up with this "underpoll" thing (of course, besides your own personal speculation)?

Just simple polling analysis.

2010 Senate:
Average of polls a week before election day: R+3.2
Election day result: D+5.74

2010 Governor:
Average of polls a week before election day: R+18.5
Election day result: R+11.75

2008 President:
Average of polls a week before election day: D+7.13
Election day result: D+12.5
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opebo
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« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2012, 05:31:17 pm »

More evidence of a very negative week or so for Obama.  Don't get me wrong, I feel quite confident Nevada will hold, but this drop there means our Republican poster's crowing about Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio is probably not misplaced at all.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2012, 05:32:31 pm »

Hi! What r the crosstabs for this poll`can`t open the link!!
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2012, 06:52:20 pm »
« Edited: August 17, 2012, 07:36:13 pm by MorningInAmerica »

Hi! What r the crosstabs for this poll`can`t open the link!!

Unfortunately, you're not missing anything. The link doesn't provide any crosstabs...http://images.politico.com/global/2012/08/120816_file_survey_haberman.pdf ...which always causes my eyebrows to raise.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2012, 07:39:39 pm »

Nevada is just outside the toss-up column, though given the poor economy in the state, it's probably one that Romney is stupidly letting Obama keep.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2012, 11:42:27 pm »

Hi! What r the crosstabs for this poll`can`t open the link!!

Unfortunately, you're not missing anything. The link doesn't provide any crosstabs...http://images.politico.com/global/2012/08/120816_file_survey_haberman.pdf ...which always causes my eyebrows to raise.

Well, it's very common for internals.
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change08
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« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2012, 07:01:05 pm »

How's Mitt Romney not winning here? His dad was hispanic!
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change08
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« Reply #24 on: August 18, 2012, 07:43:55 pm »

Does this internal poll include illegals who cannot find work, and therefore have no money to make it back to Mexico? Fair question since we are talking about an internal Democratic poll in Nevada...

Reported.
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