MO: Akin could really blow this

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Just because the polling is close doesn't mean it is winnable. Especially if you think the particular canidate has a ceiling that will ensure he loses as result of some controversy. In New Jersey you don't even need a controversy for that to happen.

The guy can be leading 44-38 and still lose, because no one will vote for him beyond 45%.

Now on the flip side of that is the potential for an unpolling. Supporting AKin is likely to be seen as embarrasing. So there may be a number of people who aren't selecting Akin in these polls but do so on election day. Of course there is also the people who are overcome with the seriousness of their vote and can't bring themselves to vote for him when it is also said and done. Those two probably cancel each other out for the most part.

Akins only possibility is a net marginal underpolling (The first scenario above outweighs the later) and a decision by some based on the decline in GOP chances nationwide to rally around the flag and reduce the damage by holding their noses and voting for Akin. Still I don't see either getting him to 50%.

I think he can legitimately claim that throwing money in here is washing it down the drain. You can disagree, but such a claim isn't baseless.

[Earthling]

Cornyn is saying that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has limited resources?

Is the Republican Party going to transit money from the presidential campaign to the congressional campaign to give them more breathing space?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guys, if Akin ends up winning this, let's finally conclude there is no hope left for America.

[LiberalJunkie]

Akin releases that he was arrested at an abortion clinic for an anti abortion protest two decades ago.

[mondale84]

Akin releases that he was arrested at an abortion clinic for an anti abortion protest two decades ago.

Great...now Missouri can elect a criminal to the US Senate...

[Craigo]

An arrest does not make you a criminal.

He suggested recently that he opposes the Equal Pay Act.

[Svensson]

Akin releases that he was arrested at an abortion clinic for an anti abortion protest two decades ago.

How about we look at the operating phrase here: "two decades ago".

As Craigo said, one arrest twenty years ago does not make one a criminal. Rod Blagojevich is a criminal. As stupid a statement as he has made, Akin is not.

[LiberalJunkie]

An arrest does not make you a criminal.

He suggested recently that he opposes the Equal Pay Act.

That makes him a sexist. There is no reason to oppose that.

[BigSkyBob]

Wow! I must admit that came out of the blue and runs contrary to all the polling evidence.

http://blogs.courier-journal.com/politics/2012/09/27/sen-john-cornyn-says-gop-is-not-going-to-spend-money-to-help-missouri-senate-candidate-todd-akin/

Texas Sen. John Cornyn, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said on Thursday that he does not intend to put money into the race of controversial Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin.

“We have no plans to do so,” Cornyn told The Courier-Journal in an interview just a short time ago.

“I just think that this is not a winnable race,” he said. “We have to make tough calculations based on limited resources and where to allocate it, where it will have the best likelihood of electing a Republican senator.”

Cornyn and the rest of the establishment screwed up badly and are trying to minimize the damage they have inflicted upon themselves. Their first line was that they wouldn't spend a dime even if the race was tied. Many conservatives correctly noted that was tantamount to an endorsement of McCaskill, whom voted for Obamacare and the trillion dollar "stimulus" boondoggle. That put Cornyn in the awkward position of soliciting conservatives to support Republican nominees in some states while de facto endorsing a liberal Democratic in MO.

Cornyn is now trying to smooth things over by claiming that he is not intentionally sandbagging Akin, but, rather merely bowing to the political reality that the RNC and Rove are sandbagging him. I suggest that this isn't going to go over well with conservatives. During the last weeks of 2010, the Republicans injected millions of dollars into California in a hopeless attempt to elect a moderate Senator there. Conservatives aren't blind to the reality that Cornyn's judgments about whom to triage, and whom to support, seem skewed against conservatives.

At this point, Cornyn's best option is simply to resign. If he wants to persist, his best option is spend a million on Akin in the next several days and see what happens.

[Torie]

The best option is for Akin to lose by a landslide, the better to teach a certain wing of the Pub party a lesson - a lesson that it seems necessary to be given frequently.

[BigSkyBob]

The best option is for Akin to lose by a landslide, the better to teach a certain wing of the Pub party a lesson - a lesson that it seems necessary to be given frequently.

The best option is for Akin to win. It would teach another wing of the Republican party a lesson they don't seem to have accepted: conservatives nominees don't serve at their pleasure.

[Ogre Mage]

Guys, if Akin ends up winning this, let's finally conclude there is no hope left for America.

It's not out of the question he could still win, but at this point the odds are against it.  The parallels with "macaca" and the Ken Buck/Sharron Angle crowd are pretty clear.  The fact he followed up his "legitimate rape" comment with the "ladylike" comment shows what a horrible candidate he is.  The race has (with good reason) turned into a referendum on Akin.  Now that the deadline has passed, I expect McCaskill to all-out attack and try to bury him ASAP.

We will probably hold the Senate because Akin is batsh!t crazy. 

[Hash]

Guys, if Akin ends up winning this, let's finally conclude there is no hope left for America.

My first impulse would be to agree with this sentiment, but then I have to remember that my MP said "I oppose the wholesale slaughter-on-demand of the innocent unborn" and opposes abortion in all circumstances. Many Todd Akins out there in elected office, just that they're smart enough not to tell the whole world that they're misogynists.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guys, if Akin ends up winning this, let's finally conclude there is no hope left for America.

My first impulse would be to agree with this sentiment, but then I have to remember that my MP said "I oppose the wholesale slaughter-on-demand of the innocent unborn" and opposes abortion in all circumstances. Many Todd Akins out there in elected office, just that they're smart enough not to tell the whole world that they're misogynists.

Indeed, that's the point. The depressing thing isn't that people like Akin exist, but that a majority of people could actually elect them even after their sickening views are widely exposed. And we're not even talking about a small nutjob-filled constituency, but a freaking 6-million-inhabitants State which is conservative but not overwhelmingly so.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

The best option is for Akin to lose by a landslide, the better to teach a certain wing of the Pub party a lesson - a lesson that it seems necessary to be given frequently.

The best option is for Akin to win. It would teach another wing of the Republican party a lesson they don't seem to have accepted: conservatives nominees don't serve at their pleasure.

Akin isn't 'conservative', he's a misogynistic [pick one: lunatic, idiot, bullsh**t artist].

[BigSkyBob]

The best option is for Akin to lose by a landslide, the better to teach a certain wing of the Pub party a lesson - a lesson that it seems necessary to be given frequently.

The best option is for Akin to win. It would teach another wing of the Republican party a lesson they don't seem to have accepted: conservatives nominees don't serve at their pleasure.

Akin isn't 'conservative', he's a misogynistic [pick one: lunatic, idiot, bullsh**t artist].

It is precisely this sort of unjustified attack against Todd Akin that has engendered a backlash. If Todd Akins does win the race, one of the people he will have to thank is you.

[BigSkyBob]

An arrest does not make you a criminal.

He suggested recently that he opposes the Equal Pay Act.

That makes him a sexist. There is no reason to oppose that.

1) That makes him an opponent of the bill, no more, no less.

2) There are reasons to oppose the bill.

[Marokai Backbeat]

The best option is for Akin to lose by a landslide, the better to teach a certain wing of the Pub party a lesson - a lesson that it seems necessary to be given frequently.

The best option is for Akin to win. It would teach another wing of the Republican party a lesson they don't seem to have accepted: conservatives nominees don't serve at their pleasure.

Akin isn't 'conservative', he's a misogynistic [pick one: lunatic, idiot, bullsh**t artist].

It is precisely this sort of unjustified attack against Todd Akin that has engendered a backlash. If Todd Akins does win the race, one of the people he will have to thank is you.

"Hey, we know we're disgusting bigots, but we ain't gonna be told we're disgusting bigots by you liberal elites! Bigot pride!" - The intellectual state of the conservative movement.

[Eraserhead]

I'm pretty sure that the Republican establishment does not want to deal with this guy managing to get elected on a night where Romney is beaten badly. Talk about Tea Party porn.

I still think he's done for personally btw but we'll see.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If he does manage to get reelected, it will likely be because Romney somehow pulled 8 to 9 point victory out of his ass in Missouri. Huffpo has an article along these lines. Not at all impossible if the rural areas surge out of fear of a Democrat sweep, and a bunch of voters polling as Romney/McCaskil in the surburbs secretly vote for Akin with no one watching. Missouri suburbs are still highly conservative compared to the rest of the country, and the most suburban district is Akin's! However such a pro-Romney result can only happen if Romney is winning or just falling short nationwide. The only difference between this possibility and the one I talked abotu before regarding the, "poll one way vote another" people, is that the group wouldn't have to be as big in this situation, as the rural turnout would make up more of the difference.

Besides, I am not concerned at all about this, "We should have nominated a more conservative candiate". Hell that is the very argument many Romney supporters used for their candidate in a so different world of 2008 and still use when comparing him to McCain. And the funny thing is that it will still serve my purposes regarding the strategic direction of the GOP, considering who the most likely candidates are and their traits and skills.
 

[HAnnA MArin County]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I saw somewhere where the NRSC is considering supporting him now? I know there for a while after his comment that the state party demanded that his signs be taken now, but lately they've been sprouting up everywhere across the state. McCaskill has been running ads going after all the crazy stuff he's said in addition to the rape comment, like his opposition to raising the minimum wage and his comparison of student loans to "stage 3 cancer." Unfortunately, he is our state's Michele Bachmann/Steve King loon. Don't discount the possibility that he could pull this one out since the state is more cuckoo crazy for Cocoa Puffs than Nevada and Colorado. It pains me to say that, but maybe Claire can hope for some coattails on Jay Nixon, who looks all but guaranteed to win a second term as our Governor.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

At this point the NRSC would benefit more by blowing $2 to $3 million on the Libertarian candidate then on Akin.

[Franzl]

This is a fun thread to read with hindsight

[smoltchanov]

Yes. Akin not only "could blow this", but did it so spectacularly, that i have few analogs. So did Mourdock and some other right-wing fanatics)))

[Landslide Lyndon]

The scary thing is, Akin may still win this.

I'd put his chances at about 35%. A clear chance, but he's still an underdog atm.

He's still the underdog, but his gaffs have not been fatal.  He's closing.