Will Akin stay or go?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Akin has led in every poll for a while. He was definitely favored to win before this comment. Maybe he'll narrowly lose now. The current Virginia Republican nominee for Senate knows how these things go.

[Mr. Morden]

Hmm, if he stays in and actually remains competitive, I'm sure Republicans will find a way to pump money to him without looking hypocritical. This is unfortunate - this just gives him more of an excuse to stay in the race.

This looks like a case of "the better it gets, the worse it gets".  If Akin can poll competitively for a while (at least until late September, beyond which point I think it's impossible for him to get off the ballot), then he may stay in the race.  Yet McCaskill will get an infusion of $ that's bigger than she would have otherwise gotten, and Akin will not get the outside support he needs.  Sure, they may pump some $ in covertly, but it won't be as much as he would get in a normal competitive race like this.  Plus Akin will get no support from prominent surrogates, because other politicians won't want to be seen with him, and some of his own campaign staff may leave.

Best scenario for the GOP would be poll numbers that looked so bad that Akin could have been convinced to drop out, but the PPP numbers suggest that may not be coming.

[LastVoter]

If PPP is biased, then they would be giving an Akin a boost right now to keep him in the race. Just sayin'.

The sample is more gop than '10

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If PPP is biased, then they would be giving an Akin a boost right now to keep him in the race. Just sayin'.

The sample is more gop than '10

Life is beautiful.

[ZuWo]

We are at the height of the scandal right now and I guess Akin will recover from this blunder if he stays in the race (which I find the most likely scenario). Akin's favorability ratings are probably going to improve if he manages to lead a flawless campaign in the next weeks while McCaskill's numbers are unlikely to change much. So Akin still has a good chance to win this race.

[Brittain33]

If PPP is biased, then they would be giving an Akin a boost right now to keep him in the race. Just sayin'.

The sample is more gop than '10

Lol, now we Dem hacks will take this at face value while the GOP hacks will argue that we should renorm it for the 2006 electorate.

[Brittain33]

If Akin's smart, he'll realize Rove and Cornyn are bluffing and will have to spend money here in October if he stays in and within striking distance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We are at the height of the scandal right now and I guess Akin will recover from this blunder if he stays in the race (which I find the most likely scenario). Akin's favorability ratings are probably going to improve if he manages to lead a flawless campaign in the next weeks while McCaskill's numbers are unlikely to change much. So Akin still has a good chance to win this race.

Because if there's one thing Akin has proven, it's that he can run a flawless campaign

[Mr. Morden]

If Akin's smart, he'll realize Rove and Cornyn are bluffing and will have to spend money here in October if he stays in and within striking distance.

But I don't see him getting the same level of support that a candidate in a similarly competitive race would have gotten under normal circumstances.  Enough party elders have declared Akin politically radioactive now that they'll have to be careful about how they handle this.  My gut tells me that Eraserhead's instincts here are right:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=157837.msg3393574#msg3393574

that Akin is probably toast one way or the other.  Even if the race is tied right now, I have the feeling that Akin is in a political death spiral.....though I'm uncertain about whether the death spiral will be slow enough that he'll decide to take his chances and stay in the race regardless.

[Brittain33]

The payoff for Akin means that even if his chance of winning is 25%, he should stay in. If it's 10%, he should stay in. The lesson of Rand Paul and god knows what other teabaggers from 2010 plus this poll show he can win. What's more, republicans have so successfully blackballed him that he has no reason to drop out. A nice appointment in the Romney administration? A cushy job at a Koch-funded "think tank"? Those could lure him out, but now they're off the table.

This guy has nothing to lose and a poll showing he's got something to win. The one thing of value he has is his nomination and he won't give it up.

[Keystone Phil]

The payoff for Akin means that even if his chance of winning is 25%, he should stay in. If it's 10%, he should stay in. The lesson of Rand Paul and god knows what other teabaggers from 2010 plus this poll show he can win. What's more, republicans have so successfully blackballed him that he has no reason to drop out. A nice appointment in the Romney administration? A cushy job at a Koch-funded "think tank"? Those could lure him out, but now they're off the table.

This guy has nothing to lose and a poll showing he's got something to win. The one thing of value he has is his nomination and he won't give it up.

Thanks, Claire!

[Brittain33]

LOL at responding to a post assuming unreasonable wishful thinking by Akin by calling it unreasonable wishful thinking by McCaskill.

[© tweed]

McCaskill oh-so-cynically comes out in his defense

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/todd-akin-defended-democratic-rival-claire-mccaskill/story?id=17048232#.UDO9_N2PXSg

[Likely Voter]

McCaskill is in a funny position. She spent money to manipulate the GOP race to get Akin in, all in hopes that he would do something stupid. But it worked so well that he may stupid himself right out of the race. So now she has to strangely defend his right to be in the race.

I dont envy MO voters with their choice between these two

[krazen1211]

Akin is allegedly getting back on the Huckabee radio show again.


Blunt, Ashcroft, Bond, Danforth, Talent issue joint statement calling on @ToddAkin to get out of the race. #MOSen

[RogueBeaver]

He just said on the Huckabee show he's staying in.

[RogueBeaver]

Could they run an independent Republican- not Brunner or Steelman since MO has sore loser laws- as an Indie and throw everything behind that person? Sort of like CO '10.

[Likely Voter]

There must be some time limit to get on the ballot. Seems a bit late. What are the rules?

The party (and crossroads) could always pick someone for a write in campaign (ala 2010 AK Murkowski) but it would have to be someone who already had statewide name recogntion and good ratings. Not sure who that would be.

[Brittain33]

I give him even odds of being the next senator from Missouri.

[RogueBeaver]

The only one who is legally able and personally willing to do it is Auditor Tom Schweich. But he isn't all that well-known even for a statewide official. Another choice who has 100% name ID and $$$ is Matt Blunt but he's never been interested in anything since leaving office.

In the interim the GOP needs to get some big-name evangelicals to join the chorus.

[Likely Voter]

Of course MO isn't AK. It may have a big lean to R but not AK level. Claire would probably easily win in a three way race with two Republicans. Akin should be able to hold on to most evangelicals, and that would be that.

Instead of a new candidate, I bet a new SuperPac will emerge in support of Akin that suddenly has a ton of undisclosed money. That way the establishment can pretend they arent backing Akin.

[Keystone Phil]

LOL at responding to a post assuming unreasonable wishful thinking by Akin by calling it unreasonable wishful thinking by McCaskill.

Your point is that Akin should stay in no matter what since he supposedly has nothing to lose. This is exactly the type of spin Claire would personally use because she knows she's competitive (at the very least) against Akin. Unless you honestly think she wants him to withdraw...

[Talleyrand]

I bet a new SuperPac will emerge in support of Akin that suddenly has a ton of undisclosed money. That way the establishment can pretend they arent backing Akin.

Hadn't thought of that. A pretty good idea as long as the mainstream media doesn't start reporting heavily on it.

I still think Akin is the favorite to win, although his comments are utterly despicable, but I expect they will be mostly forgotten a week from now, except in McCaskill's campaign. Fact is- despite a -34 net approval, he's still leading among independents in a GOP-leaning state against an opponent who voters are cool towards, leaning towards dislike. I expect this controversy to tighten the race, but in the end, I think he'll pull it out.

That is just my gut feeling though, and I'd love to be disproved in November.

[Brittain33]

LOL at responding to a post assuming unreasonable wishful thinking by Akin by calling it unreasonable wishful thinking by McCaskill.

Your point is that Akin should stay in no matter what since he supposedly has nothing to lose. This is exactly the type of spin Claire would personally use because she knows she's competitive (at the very least) against Akin. Unless you honestly think she wants him to withdraw...

It's not "spin," it's my assessment of Akin's position. People in his position don't usually give up their one remaining asset. I don't see how saying Claire would say the same thing disproves the point, which is that Akin's interests have diverged greatly from those of the Republicans, and the Republicans made that happen.

What do you think his reason for stepping down would be, given that he's going into total obscurity if he does?

[RogueBeaver]

Scott Conroy said on Twitter that sources are telling him Akin may drop before 9/25. Has to be before the DNC ends.

If not then the seat should be deliberately jettisoned like with Ted Stevens 4 years ago.