Will Akin stay or go?

[Talleyrand]

I bet a new SuperPac will emerge in support of Akin that suddenly has a ton of undisclosed money. That way the establishment can pretend they arent backing Akin.

Hadn't thought of that. A pretty good idea as long as the mainstream media doesn't start reporting heavily on it.

I still think Akin is the favorite to win, although his comments are utterly despicable, but I expect they will be mostly forgotten a week from now, except in McCaskill's campaign. Fact is- despite a -34 net approval, he's still leading among independents in a GOP-leaning state against an opponent who voters are cool towards, leaning towards dislike. I expect this controversy to tighten the race, but in the end, I think he'll pull it out.

That is just my gut feeling though, and I'd love to be disproved in November.

[Talleyrand]

If not then the seat should be deliberately jettisoned like with Ted Stevens 4 years ago.

Stevens barely lost. If he hadn't been jettisoned, maybe he would have won. I don't think the GOP would risk that again, whatever their current threats.

[Talleyrand]

If not then the seat should be deliberately jettisoned like with Ted Stevens 4 years ago.

Stevens barely lost. If he hadn't been jettisoned, maybe he would have won. I don't think the GOP would risk that again, whatever their current threats.

Missouri isn't as Republican as Alaska, and doesn't have their current governor on the Republican ticket though.

Akin has not been indicted on seven counts of failing to report gifts, and hasn't trailed in most polls. He's still very much in the game, although not a shoo-in for victory.

[Talleyrand]

Exactly. The GOP isn't going to throw away a chance at this seat with a fight with Akin or a third party candidate. Expect the NRSC and Crossroads GPS to stop talking about Akin or acknowledging him, and then within a few weeks a new group funded by Koch, Adelson, or Friess called Prosperity Eagles for Freedom USA will start running ads against Liberal Claire McCaskill who wants to give your Medicare money to welfare deadbeats.

That would be pretty funny for someone watching the ad, but I agree with the substance of this argument. They're not going to give up on Akin if he stays in the race. Right now, I just see seven realistic shots at GOP pickups. Out of these, only Nebraska is a sure thing. Wisconsin is pretty likely. I'd say Missouri, North Dakota, and Montana are about 50-50 or slightly higher, with Democrats having better candidates but the dynamics of the state favoring the Republican. George Allen is a very slight underdog in Virginia and Connie Mack can win in Florida, though it'll be fairly tough.

I don't buy Ohio, Hawaii, Michigan, and Michigan being real opportunities for a gain at this point in time. I'm also pretty doubtful Wilson can win in New Mexico without a wave. Heinrich is a well-liked and strong candidate in a Democratic-leaning state, and he's going to have to make a serious slip-up for her to have a chance, although the margin won't be double digits either way.