20/20 Insight, LLC: Romney barely ahead in GA
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  20/20 Insight, LLC: Romney barely ahead in GA
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Author Topic: 20/20 Insight, LLC: Romney barely ahead in GA  (Read 1061 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 21, 2012, 12:54:43 PM »

Registered voters (incl. leaners):

47-47 Obama/Romney

Likely voters (incl. leaners):

49-46 Romney

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http://gallery.mailchimp.com/20fc851ac4a956667bd8db927/files/BGAugustSurvey082312A.pdf
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2012, 12:56:06 PM »

What's with all these awful polls this week?
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2012, 12:59:25 PM »

GA, due to demographic trends and some depressed conservative turnout, will likely trend Democratic. However, it's a bad sign if Romney isn't ahead by 8-10 points.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2012, 01:00:14 PM »

What's with all these awful polls this week?

What? Romney can't be tied in Georgia and leading by 18% in North Carolina at the same time? Tongue
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2012, 03:10:44 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2012, 03:18:45 PM by IDS Legislator Griffin »

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Even if you flipped the R & D samples, it would still be overly Democratic (although not by much). A real sample should look something like 34 D/42 R/23 I.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2012, 03:12:47 PM »

lol. no.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2012, 03:14:33 PM »

So Obama is tied in Georgia, Romney's up 14 in Florida, 18 in North Carolina, and 4 in Michigan.

Are we all a part of a joke that we're just not in on?
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anvi
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2012, 03:17:32 PM »

So Obama is tied in Georgia, Romney's up 14 in Florida, 18 in North Carolina, and 4 in Michigan.

Are we all a part of a joke that we're just not in on?

Pollsters' realignment!  Tongue Smiley
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old timey villain
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2012, 03:18:05 PM »

A lot of very bizarre polls out lately. Most of what we've seen of Georgia shows Mitt leading by 7-9 points, which seems more reasonable. This poll looks like junk, but I think Georgia might be a little closer than people think.

Anybody who has spent time here can see that the minority population is surging. We'll probably be a majority/minority state by 2020. The Republicans had a lot of success in converting conservative white democrats but I think they've hit their limit. They have about 75% of white voters now, but the base has stagnated while the Democrat's base is continually growing through migration and natural increase.

Another factor? The HOPE Scholarship. This program has made college more affordable for thousands of Georgia students. And the big schools in Georgia, like science heavy Georgia Tech and hipster meets fratty UGA do a great job converting young Republicans into moderates or liberals.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2012, 04:10:16 PM »

Unless this election is going to be all over the map...


If Georgia is tied...



If Romney is ahead in Michigan-




or maybe its really like this-

Tongue That could actually be reasonable under certain circumstances..or not.
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2012, 04:14:38 PM »

Georgia goes D before South Carolina and definitely before Tennessee.

The last map seems legit.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2012, 05:40:11 PM »

They last polled Georgia back in February. (Of 2011!)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131654.0

At that time they had Romney leading 50-44, doing better than Huckabee, Gingrich, or Palin against Obama.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2012, 12:51:02 AM »

They last polled Georgia back in February. (Of 2011!)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=131654.0

At that time they had Romney leading 50-44, doing better than Huckabee, Gingrich, or Palin against Obama.

Some comparisons between the two polls:

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I'd love to know why they felt it necessary to change their RV D/R/I tabs so dramatically over the past 18 months.
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2012, 01:27:15 AM »

What do they think this is? 2008?
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