Wyoming Senate Race

[Meeker]

Pretty sure this could be the sleeper race of the cycle. Democrat Tim Chestnut is getting more than 50% of the vote in his primary so far tonight and looks like he could give John Barrasso a real run for his money. Chestnut is a county commissioner in one of the state's major population centers (Albany County is the 6th largest county in the state and also home to the University of Wyoming - great source of student volunteers). Barrasso is a pretty weak candidate; he underperformed against a joke of an opponent in 2008. Plus Wyoming has been trending Democratic recently.

I'd link to Chestnut's website but he doesn't seem to have one up yet. Should have it up in the next few weeks though.

[Napoleon]

Pretty sure this could be the sleeper race of the cycle.

I'd link to Chestnut's website but he doesn't seem to have one up yet.

Not happening.

[Meeker]

People don't really have the Internet in Wyoming anyways. Not as much of a campaign necessity as in a lot of other places.

[Napoleon]

People don't really have the Internet in Wyoming anyways. Not as much of a campaign necessity as in a lot of other places.

Is that so? I can't imagine living in such a place. Still, I would think a campaign website would be extremely beneficial, if not absolutely necessary, to raise funds. Although I can see why a Democrat in Wyoming would ignore a national grassroots fundraising network..

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

The number of votes Barrasso got in the primary alone is already 5x that of the entire Democratic primary.

[Reginald]

Unless the +44 approval rating PPP found for him has substantially deteriorated (granted, this was almost two years ago, but is there anything to suggest his approvals have significantly dropped?), I don't see this as much of a possibility at all, especially in Wyoming. Though it would be nice to see at least one poll, of course.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Underperformed what? Enzi?

John Barrasso Republican 183,063 73.35%
Nick Carter Democratic 66,202 26.53%

[Meeker]

The number of votes Barrasso got in the primary alone is already 5x that of the entire Democratic primary.

Lots of competitive State House primaries drove up Republican turnout tonight. Also, Democrats typically turnout in lower numbers during summer primaries as a whole.

Keep in mind Wyoming is a very cheap state to run ads in. The DSCC could make a substantial buy here without making much of a dent in their spending in other races.

[Keystone Phil]

Can't tell if this is a dumb thread or a really dumb thread.

[Niemeyerite]

LoL. Barrasso may only win 65% of the vote.

[Zioneer]

Can't tell if this is a dumb thread or a really dumb thread.

For once, I agree with you.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I didn't know there are any Senate "elections" in Wyoming. I thought a bunch of Republicans is simply saying who's the Senator now

[Meeker]

Can't tell if this is a dumb thread or a really dumb thread.

More Republican spin.

[Holmes]

Democrats already had their chances, with the House seat twice and couldn't nab it (though, it would have been lost in 2010 either way).

[cinyc]

Keep in mind Wyoming is a very cheap state to run ads in. The DSCC could make a substantial buy here without making much of a dent in their spending in other races.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.  Geographically speaking, much of the state is in larger out-of-state TV markets including Denver and Salt Lake City.   To fully cover the state might require advertising in 7 separate TV markets, including the two largely in-state ones, Cheyenne-Scottsbluff and Casper-Riverton.

[Nichlemn]

Pretty sure this could be the sleeper race of the cycle. Democrat Tim Chestnut is getting more than 50% of the vote in his primary so far tonight and looks like he could give John Barrasso a real run for his money. Chestnut is a county commissioner in one of the state's major population centers (Albany County is the 6th largest county in the state and also home to the University of Wyoming - great source of student volunteers). Barrasso is a pretty weak candidate; he underperformed against a joke of an opponent in 2008. Plus Wyoming has been trending Democratic recently.

I'd link to Chestnut's website but he doesn't seem to have one up yet. Should have it up in the next few weeks though.

So Democratic trending, that when the R ticket lost a native son and many Western states trended Democratic... WY trended R.

[Vosem]

Wyoming is trending Republican. Also, Barrasso underperformed by winning 73%-27%. When that's underperforming, you're rightfully very confident. That said, Wyoming can be weird occasionally (1988 Senate race or 2002 gubernatorial race come to mind) but there're many reasons to think Barrasso will win a landslide and no reasons to think he won't. I saw Barrasso give an interview to somebody sometime, and he came off as pretty smart but a little stiff, very careful about what he's saying. The opposite of gaffe-prone. He should be fine.

[Meeker]

This was intended to be a critique of several posters here, but I guess I was too subtle.

Obviously the D's have no chance at this seat. Thread closed.