Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012

[Hifly]

Does the entire PSOE and PSC support gay marriage and liberal social policies or are there deputies and influential people within them who are socially conservatve?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know it's entirely their own fault, but what's happened to the PSOE and PSC of late is really quite tragic.

[Velasco]

Does the entire PSOE and PSC support gay marriage and liberal social policies or are there deputies and influential people within them who are socially conservatve?

There's no controversy on such issues, even socialists with deep Catholic convictions like José Bono (former regional president, minister and  President of the Congress of Deputies as well) assume same-sex marriage and liberal social policies.

As for the PSOE and PSC hapless state, deserved or not my opinion is that Spain can't afford its social democrat party turning into PASOK. Probably is what some IU followers are expecting, but it should be a tragedy for our political system. I think that PSOE has a great responsability right now: broad renewal and reform or sharp falling into the precipice and/or insignificance.

[Velasco]

New polls. El País: CiU falls short to get a majority (68 seats needed); PP second in a tight contest with PSC and ERC; ICV-EUiA stagnated; C's above 5%, CUP gets 2 seats and SI dissapears.


La Vanguardia: CiU gets 62-64 seats; PSC and PP are virtually tied in the second place;  remarkable increase for ICV-EUiA (almost 4% and 3-6 seats); ERC is 4-5 seats up from 2010; 7-8 seats for C's; CUP and SI on the edge of getting seats or being outside.



El Periódico: The main difference with the other polls is that ERC gets the 2nd place, while PSC and PP are tied in the 3rd.

[Velasco]

Polls are still showing a strong support for independence...

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/18/catalan-short-of-majority-independence

... but this support is conditioned. For example, the poll released by El País says that 46% are in favour of independence and 42% against. If independence implies being outside of EU, support for independence falls to 37%, while a 50% chooses remaining in Spain.
The poll by La Vanguardia says that 47% support independence (falling from 55% the past month), with 40% against (up from 33%). If Catalonia achieves a 'fiscal pact' support for independence is 42%, while 46% should be against.

On the other hand Artur Mas, harassed by a 'ghost report' accusing him and the former  president Jordi Pujol of having secret bank accounts in Switzerland, is increasing the tone of his campaign. He promises that his successor as Catalonian president won't be able to be legally deposed because Catalonia will be independent in that time. He promises more cutbacks as well, because "if someone promises that there won't be more adjustments, they're simply deceiving you".

[Zanas]

On what platform does the ERC stand these days ? I mean on independence and also on other subjects. At one time it was my chosen party in Catalonian politics, but I really don't know nowadays...

[Velasco]

ERC (founded by Jaume Aiguader in 1931) was a federalist party in its origins. During the Spanish II Republic it was the main force in Catalonia. In 1931, after winning the elections, Francesc Macià proclaimed the "Catalan Republic inside the Iberian Federation". Such initiative caused a constitutional crisis and subsequent negotiations ended with the 1932 Catalan Statute of Autonomy. Lluis Companys replaced Macià in 1933 as President of the Generalitat. In the following year, while Revolution is going on in Asturias, Companys proclaimed the "Catalan State inside the Spanish Federal Republic". The central government (a coalition between the right-wing monarchist CEDA and the 'centrist' Lerroux's Radical Party) crushed down the Asturian revolutionaries and suspended the Catalan autonomy. After the Popular Front's triumph it was reestablished until 1939, when Franco invaded Catalonia in the final stages of the Civil War.

Nowadays ERC is independentist. Reorientation occurred in 1989, when Àngel Colom was elected General Secretary. By that time ERC assimilated several small and scattered independentist groups, alongside with members of the former terrorist band Terra Lliure (dissolved in the early 90's). Under Carod-Rovira, Puigcercós and Oriol Junqueras, who is the current leader, this orientation continues.

As for the political platform, ERC pursues the attainment of a future Catalan Republic and they understand that exercising the Right to Decide is the way to find the exit from the crisis. Ideologically ERC is more or less socialdemocrat. The electoral program includes mentions to a new Catalan estate, reindustralization, knowledge economy, sustainable tourism... and a roadmap for the consecution of an independent state in 2013-14. If you are interested and you can understand Catalan, here you are:
http://file01.lavanguardia.com/2012/11/08/54354976158-url.pdf

Btw, another poll released by Sigma2 for El Mundo is a bit more optimistic about the outcome of PSC: CiU 60-63 (36,6%); PSC 21-23 (15,3%);  PP 20-21 (13,8%); ERC 14 (9,5%); ICV 10-12 (8,1%); C's 5 (4,5%); SI 0-2 (2,8%); Others 9,4%

[Zanas]

How would you say ERC is placed on the political spectrum as opposed to ICV and PSC. From what I can gather, and notwithstanding the independentism spectrum, they are somewhere in between those two, but closest to which ? I'll try and read the link you posted : I don't understand Catalan, but I can understand French, Spanish and somewhat Italian, so I should get a few things.

[Velasco]

Ideologically it's between PSC and ICV as you say, perhaps they're just in the middle... depending on issues, maybe a bit to the right from ICV on social agenda and a bit to the left from PSC on economics or environment. It's not easy to place them in the exact point between the other two parties. The main issue where ERC differs significantly from PSC is independentism, but  members of the 'catalanist' wing of PSC, such as Montserrat Tura or Ernest Maragall, were tempted by ERC to join the party list for this election.  ICV is not openly independentist but supports the Right to Decide and many of its voters support independence, according to recent polls. I'd say the last issue and perhaps economics tips the balance slightly in favour of ICV.

[Velasco]

The main issue these days in the Catalan campaign is the controversy around the supposed secret bank accounts of Artur Mas and his political godfather Jordi Pujol.  While opposition is asking ministers to back up the insinuations made in the past days, the judicial machinery is acting in Catalonia:

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/22/inenglish/1353603425_667563.html

A police chief admitted that there are no reports that they should not have been put in knowledge o the judge who investigates the CDC's supposed financing across the Palau de la Música. The corruption scandal involves the former Palau's director, whose family had links with the venerable musical institution since since its foundation. There are investigated supposed grafts from Catalan builders to CDC across the Palau , and El Mundo published that departs from these commissions were addressed to Artur Mas, Jordi Pujol and relatives of both in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. The newspaper also published that Felip Puig, the regional minister (conseller) of Interior received 250000 euros in cash.

It sounds like a dirty war, especially when El Mundo and its director, Pedro J Ramírez are involved. The case Palau has been around for months and seems to be pretty ugly as well.

[Velasco]

Fortunately, this electoral campaign is over. Yesterday, during the habitual press conference after the cabinet's meeting, Deputy Prime Minister and Government's spokeswoman, Soraya Sáez de Santamaría, stated: "those who have overseas bank accounts must to declare them". It's a clear allusion to the allegations that have been spilt on Mas and other CiU leaders in the last days.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/23/inenglish/1353700228_287157.html

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If this isn't entertaining enough, the minister of Interior, the Catalan Jorge Fernández Díaz, admits that the document does not exist officially but...

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/11/21/inenglish/1353521419_889882.html

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Artur Mas gave his final campaign's meeting in a crammed Palau Sant Jordi (home the FC Barcelona basketball team) with many Catalan independentist flags (esteladas). The aspiration of gaining an absolute majority has been rather stooped. Following his usual line of these days, Mas appeals to epic and to the historical importance of this election for the Catalan people. Allegations have helped CiU in presenting its leader as a victim of a dirty campaign that would chase discredit him. In the habitual language of campaign, Durán i Lleida alluded to a "state that is a sewer". "Catalans will be called in these four years to decide freely on our future", concluded Mas.



Pere Navarro, that man scantily known outside Terrassa, chose the most modest location of a room of concerts, has being doing calls to the useful vote on the left, criticizing the ICV's sovereignty drift. It's a desperate attempt to recover votes to his left side and to avoid a predictable precipice in the polling booths. There is consensus in regarding his candidacy as a loser one and in the vagueness of his federalist offers that apparently don't seem to please many people. PSC has very modest goals: they conform themselves with 20 seats.

El País entitles: "PP hides the cuts under the carpet". So PP's campaign has been focused on discrediting the Mas' independentist bet. Mas is being accused of coward and Messianic for not having courage enough to confront the crisis.  In the photo above, Alicia Sánchez-Camacho, the head of list, alongside with Dolores de Cospedal, regional premier of Castilla-La Mancha and PP's general secretary.



Oriol Junqueras, the ERC leader, proclaims his love for Catalonia showing a cute T-Shirt.  ERC has tried to avoid mentions to the competence on the independentist ground, especially the far-left and anti-capitalist CUP, which aspires to obtain 5 seats and parliamentary group. Junqueras doesn't hide his desire of reaching a compromise with CiU over a sovereignist agenda and avoids criticizing Mas. ERC aspires to be the second force after this election and gaining the elections some day.



Finally Joan Herrera (ICV-EUiA) is postulating himself as the only and real opposition to the cut policies.  Recently he received the visit of Syriza's leader Alexis Tsipras (see photo above) and they gave a common meeting at a Barcelona rail station. "We are a project that adds up federalists who don't lower the head before Madrid and independentists which aren't a trendy progressive complement of CiU", stated Herrera ( both clear allusions to PSC and ERC, respectively).

[Velasco]

A survey by Sigma Dos (the usual El Mundo's pollster) for The Guardian, released on Thursday, suggests that CiU will lose seats (57-59, down from 62), PSC and PP would pick up 21-22 seats each one and ERC 16.  I take advantage of this to say that The Guardian has been published a series of articles about the ongoing electoral process in Catalonia. It's a collaborative effort with La Vanguardia, what includes translations of articles by Quim Monzó (valuable writer in catalan language) or Pilar Rahola (former ERC deputy, nowadays a part of the flatterers' choir surrounding Mas and , IMO, a moron). Also there's a test called "Can you spot the Catalan?", which is the 2nd most viewed entry in World News. Needless to say that I got 10/10 correct answers

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2012/nov/23/spot-the-catalan-interactive-quiz

[Niemeyerite]

And I thought Rahola had become a social democrat. LoL. Don't know why she keepsher seat on the left in the programme "El Gran Debate".

Turnout is 29%, 4 points higher than two years ago. Pretty massive.

[Tender Branson]

And I thought Rahola had become a social democrat. LoL. Don't know why she keepsher seat on the left in the programme "El Gran Debate".

Turnout is 29%, 4 points higher than two years ago. Pretty massive.

In Catalonia ? At noon ? What was the final turnout ?

[Tender Branson]

I'll try a Catalonia prediction:

38% CiU
13% PSC
12% ERC
11% PPC
10% ICV-EUiA
  7% C's
  3% SI
  3% CUP
  1% PxC
  2% Others

[Niemeyerite]

My prediction:

CiU 60 seats
PSC 21
ERC 16
PP 15-16
ICV 12
C's 7
CUP 3-4 (3.5%)
SI 0 (2.4%)
PxC 0 (1.9%)

[Velasco]

And I thought Rahola had become a social democrat. LoL. Don't know why she keepsher seat on the left in the programme "El Gran Debate".

Turnout is 29%, 4 points higher than two years ago. Pretty massive.

In Catalonia ? At noon ? What was the final turnout ?

I remember have read a Rahola's interview to the Honourable President (Artur Mas) in a local newspaper's Sunday magazine a few weeks ago at the dentist's consultation. I assure you that calling Rahola flattering and servile is speaking in a smooth way.

Turnout figures collected at 13.00 to be precise. It was 29.45%, the highest since 1988. Anyways the final turnout could be only relatively massive (by Catalan elections' standard); highest turnout ever was in 1984 with 64.3%.

[Velasco]

Turnout at 18.15 is 56.14% (+7.75% compared with 2010). Polling stations close at 20.00 (local time). Maybe we'll see a turnout record after all.

[Kitteh]

I got 7/10 on that quiz. Not bad for pretty much just random guessing (I knew Dali for certain, no clue on any of the others).

[Velasco]

7/10 is pretty good

Turnout figures (at 18.00) are pretty interesting in some Barcelona's districts. The highest turnouts are in the affluent and pro-CiU conservative areas such as Sarriá-Sant Gervasi (63.2%), Les Corts (62.1%) and in the district of Gràcia (60.2%). Ciutat Vella, the Barcelona´s old downtown, has the lowest (45.8%). Nevertheless, major turnout increases are in the working-class districts, such as Nou Barris (+8.7%), Sant Martí and Sant Andreu (+ 8%, approx.), while the increase in the posh Sarriá-Sant Gervasi is the lowest (+5.35%).  Nou Barris is were PSC traditionally performs better and CiU has its worst results. The district has declared itself as "very infuriated" due to the closing of health centers and schools. Many families have all their members in unemployment and the diminishing social helps are insufficient.

Turnout in provincial capitals (18.00): Barcelona 57.5% (+7.1%), Tarragona 55.4% (+9.5%), Girona 60% (+8.6%) and Lleida 51.8% (+5.7%)

[Velasco]

TV3 released an Israelite:

CiU 54-57; ERC 20-23; PP 16-18; PSC 16-18; ICV-EUiA 10-12; C's 6-7; CUP 5-6

[Niemeyerite]

Devastating for CiU and PSC, excellent news for ERC, CUP and C's, if accurate.

[Velasco]

Fernando Garea is writing in El País that Artur Mas has been fattened the tiger in order to be devoured himself. According to Garea "Artur Mas deserves a bust in ERC's headquarters" (to the side of Aznar's) and also notes how good is for the Catalan independentism having a PP's government in Madrid. He comes to say that the CiU's sovereignist draft has been a terrible business because people always prefer originals to the copy, that is to say, a conservative, pactist and pro-establishment party cannot turn into radicalism and being still credible. The independentist challenge and the early election would have served him to avoid a major defeat, due to the terrible economic situation, but the draft has been so big that it doesn't justify such a short result. Now" the Messiah who was going to take Catalonia to the promised land" is in the hands of others. The result wouldn't be so bad for PP, because the sovereignist forces are divided (even at the cost of reinforcing ERC), and at least they and Ciutadans have managed to make profitable the polarization Spain-Catalonia. For PSC it's an utter disaster and the days of Pere Navarro seem to be over. The Catalan socialists will have a debate on its own identity. On the left the CUP, and to a lesser extent ICV, gather the social discomfort in a similar way of the Galician Syriza.

[Hash]

C's is doing really well, and PP is holding up remarkably. I suspect it's due to the polarization in this campaign. Where is C's finding its new support? the PSC?

[Velasco]

Given that PP is performing well, the C's voters must be people dissapointed with PSC's weak position between two waters. A 9% in the province of Barcelona is a remarkably good result; PSC is polling 18.5% right now (34.55% counted). In Tarragona (48.8% counted) C's is performing better than ICV and PSC is literally sinking (14.2% and 4th place).

Update with 68.59% counted:

CIU   48   721798   29.26 %
PSC   23   382836   15.52 %
ERC-CAT SÍ   20   327781   13.29 %
PP   19   324687   13.16 %
ICV-EUIA   13   248201   10.06 %
C'S   9   192848   7.81 %
CUP-ALT.ESQUERRES   3   84733   3.43 %