Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012

[Hash]

You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

There's this factor as well. I've never really delved into it, but I don't think that Spain's peripheral nationalisms have 'tracked' each other in their surges and ebbs of electoral support.

[Peter the Lefty]

You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

Cause the austerity is causing the Basque and Catalonian left-wing nationalists to rise in support.  I'm surprised that it's not a similar situation in Galicia. 

[Hash]

You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

Cause the austerity is causing the Basque and Catalonian left-wing nationalists to rise in support.  I'm surprised that it's not a similar situation in Galicia. 

The situation is more complex than that.

[Niemeyerite]

Regionalist-to-nationalist conservatives in Galicia vote PP, specially in Lugo and Ourense. Politicians like Jose Manuel Baltar represent the regionalist right really well, and, now, they're all member of the PP. But it may not be this way in 3-4 years. Now, there's a corrupt banker, Mario Conde, running as a far-right candidate, and the wife of Baltar is supporting him. He may get some conservative rural votes, thus hurting the PP in Lugo and Ourense.

BNG splitted in three parts: BNG (whose candidate will be Francisco Jorquera, the leader of the party in the national Congress), ANOVA (leaded by Beiras, the former leader of the BNG in Coruña) and CxG (the conservative section of the BNG, plus some small regionalist parties, from the right to socialdemocracy).

IU, a party which always gets poor results in Galicia, asked for a coalition ANOVA-IU ("the Galician Sryza" they call it), and Beiras accepted. CxG, whose base is mainly rural and conservative, could join the coalition, too (and I really don't know why).

BNG, of course, is doing worse than in 2009. In fact, they are probably behind the "Galician Sryza" now, but I'm sure they'll recover and get at least the 12 seats they got in 2009. Jorquera is a good candidate (better, by far, than Anxo Quintana, candidate in 2005 and 2009) and it may get some votes from otherwise socialist voters.

[Associate Justice PiT]

You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

There's this factor as well. I've never really delved into it, but I don't think that Spain's peripheral nationalisms have 'tracked' each other in their surges and ebbs of electoral support.

     I'd be sort of concerned if they did. What's the point of a nationalist movement if you are joined at the hip with other groups' nationalist movements?

[Velasco]

Will CiU actually make any moves towards independence (or maybe an SNP-style "devo max" option, or whatever "confederal model" means in that poll) after the election, or is all this talk hot air?

Honestly, I'm clueless. I'd say that the September 11 demonstration is a landmark and the Artur Mas recent move is really serious. When CiU won the last election, Artur Mas stated that the independence was not his goal at that moment ( he told "Ara no toca", that roughly means "now it's not the time"). The central element of the nationalist platform was the "fiscal pact" which means a similar taxation system to the "chartered regime" that works for the Basque Country and Navarre:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communities_of_chartered_regime

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That regime (the Fueros) has origins in the Middle Ages.

A confederal model could mean the recognition of Catalonia as a nation and a complete decentralization. From XV to XVIII centuries Spain was a personal union of two crowns: Castile and Aragon (with Catalonia as the main element). After the Spanish War of Sucession which ended with the siege of Barcelona, the Catalonian institutions (the medieval Generalitat) were supressed by the Nueva Planta decrees. The National Day of Catalonia conmemorates the anniversary of the surrender of Barcelona (September 11, 1714). Basque Country and Navarre mantained their institutions because these regions were alligned with the Bourbons, while the regions of the Crown of Aragon sided with the old dinasty of the Habsburgs.

Coming back to the present, the following article by Paddy Woodworth in the Irish Times explains very well the situation. I strongly recommend it:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0925/1224324359757.html

[YL]

Thanks for that, Velasco.

There are some nasty-sounding people on the Spanish right.  From that Irish Times article:

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are some nasty-sounding people on the Spanish right.

Another case of the arboreally defecating bear, I suspect.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thanks for that, Velasco.

There are some nasty-sounding people on the Spanish right.  From that Irish Times article:

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Oh please, that's pretty standard RW rhetoric in parts of the Spanish press. This was La Razon's front page after the supreme court allowed Bildu to stand in the 2011 local elections:



"Eta wins, Spain loses"...  and puts the individual photos of the judge underneath (on top of "Una sentencia lamentable". No translation necessary, right?) and that's the front page.

[Hash]

Indeed, La Razón is basically an openly far-right newspaper (hence, one who thinks that only Franco understood how to deal with regional nationalism). I guess ABC and the online website Libertad Digital are about as right-wing.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Indeed, La Razón is basically an openly far-right newspaper (hence, one who thinks that only Franco understood how to deal with regional nationalism). I guess ABC and the online website Libertad Digital are about as right-wing.

Yes, but are you familiar with Intereconomia? It's simply the best, proof that the FOX news formula isn't something restricted to anglo-saxon countries.

[Velasco]

La Vanguardia poll:


CiU 66-67 (+4/5); PSC 21 (-7); PP 15-16 (-2/3); ERC 13 (+3); ICV-EUiA 12 (+2); C's 4 (+1); SI 3 (-1). No vote percentages provided. The pollster is Feed-back (unknown to me), 1200 interviews between September 21 and 27. Notice that La Vanguardia is a newspaper published in Barcelona regarded as pro-CiU. If the poll is accurate, the parties supporting the September 11 demonstration could win at least 96 seats, more than 2/3 of the Catalonian Parliament. The newspaper also says that almost 84% agree with a referendum and the support for independence is 54.8% (33.5% against and 10.2% undecided). I don't know if La Vanguardia will provide more details tomorrow.

"Eta wins, Spain loses"...  and puts the individual photos of the judge underneath (on top of "Una sentencia lamentable". No translation necessary, right?) and that's the front page.

I'm pretty sure that years of inflamatory rethoric have contributed to fuel the independentist feelings. Perhaps is a very profitable speech in certain parts of Spain but really stupid if you want to make friends in Euskadi or Catalonia.

[Niemeyerite]

The "right" in Spain is dying. And the centre-right is alive because UPyD is growing. But, by far, the most fasicst newspaper is "La Gaceta" (Intereconomía). La Razçon is a joke newspaper who stands by Rajoy no matter what. They are clowns, not even the sane conservative voter considers them a serious newspaper. ABC is the newspaper of old, conservative people. El Mundo is the only one which I'd consider "OK", and they're the guys who still say 11-M was caused by ETA and not Al-Qaida.

My father, the typical centre-left voter who doesn't like communists and hates PP, reads El País, and sometimes La Vanguardia. La Vanguardia is a good newspaper, related to CiU but not that flawed. And they've released some good polls before. I trust this poll, but probably with ERC stronger and PP and CiU lower. But anything can happen until December.

And Montserrat Tura will challenge Pere Navarro for the nomination, This means:

1) If Tura, the "regionalist" option, wins, PSC may get more than 25 seats. She was the only popular politician from the "Tripartito", but lost to Jordi Hereu in last year primaries for Barcelona local elections.

2) If Navarro, the "federalist", wins by less than 10 points... Expect PSC to have devastating results.

3) If Navarro wins confortably, he may get from 20 to 25 seats... But could still get less than 20 seats.

And the best option is... Both of them decide to stop this nonsense and urge Lleida mayor, Angel Ros, to run. We could be talking about 30 seats with him as our candidate. But he may be too nationalist for PSC taste in the provinces of Barcelona and Tarragona.

[Velasco]

El Mundo poll:



Pere Navarro, mayor of Terrassa and current leader of the party, will be the PSC candidate. He defeated Montserrat Tura, the candidate of the 'catalanist' faction, by a comfortable margin (73% of the delegates). Tura and Ernest Maragall will not be in the PSC list in the next election. Ernest Maragall is the brother of the former President Pasqual Maragall and grandson of Joan Maragall, a Catalan poet. He was conseller (regional minister) of Education and the deputy who broke the party's discipline:

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/27/inenglish/1348774590_743204.html

[Niemeyerite]

As Dani said, Navarro has won the nomination 73-23%. He was expected to win, but this was a huge victory, probably because some catalanists, like Angel Ros, decided to support Navarro again, as they did last year. Tura has supported him, and may be already thinking about running in 4 years, in an open primary. Angel Ros is open to being the leader of the PSC in the province of Lleida. This will help Navarro, certainly.
So, if yesterday I predicted 20-25 seats for the PSC, I go for the 25-30 option now, as this was a great Sunday for Navarro, and he will be helped by some nationalist socialists. But, anything could happen, Navarro is as boring as Montilla and ICV may still steal some socialist voters, as they candidate is popular among lefties, nationalists, federalists, 15-M crowd... Joan Herrera is a good candidate, PSC'd better make a good campaign, because they can continue losing votes.

[Velasco]

Another poll, this time from El Periódico de Catalunya:




This poll shows ERC in the 3rd place with 17-18 seats and PP in the 4th with only 12-13, terrible PSC's performance and ICV's stagnation. Trust who you want. On the other hand it's remarkable the demoscopic silence in the Basque Country. Fear of an Euskal Herria Bildu's victory as someone suggest or maybe it's only the crisis?

Julio, I read this article in El País: "Who is who in the PSC". Do you know anything about Rocío Martínez-Sampere?
http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2012/09/28/catalunya/1348846823_566461.html

[Niemeyerite]

I trust this poll. As I've always thought, ERC is very strong, PSC and PP very weak. I think PSC will recover a bit now.

About the article, I read that this afternoon, too. And I dind't know who she was, but after reading what the article said about her, I googled "Rocio Martinez-Sampere" and read the Catalonian Wikipedia entry about her haha... She seemed dumb in the photo ElPais chose for her, but she's cute and young. Expect her to become something important in the future

[Zanas]

and he will be helped by some nationalist socialists.

I couldn't help but shudder reading this. It's strange to see these words associated in a kind of progressist context...

[Velasco]

I trust this poll. As I've always thought, ERC is very strong, PSC and PP very weak. I think PSC will recover a bit now.

ERC failed to reach an agreement with the other independentist forces: Solidaritat (SI), Reagrupament Independentista (RI) and the very left-wing Popular Unity Candidatures (CUP). The deputy Joan Laporta, former president of the FC Barcelona and SI head of list who left the party, was regarded the 63th deputy of CiU during the Legislature and is supposed to support Mas. Some people say that RI will do the same. The CUP will decide on October 13 if they run for the election, in that case it would be the first time because this group only stood for municipal elections (with some success in 2011).

and he will be helped by some nationalist socialists.

I couldn't help but shudder reading this. It's strange to see these words associated in a kind of progressist context...

At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans. It's a bit hard to explain, but in Catalonia exists a strong sense of cultural and 'national' identity. There is a word, 'Catalanism', that describes a cultural movement, emerged in the XIX Century, in defence of the "proper and distinctive values of the historic personality of Catalonia". All nationalists are supposed to be catalanists and also the 'federalist' left-wing parties (PSC-PSOE and PSUC, later ICV and EUiA). Those parties that supported the new Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia (2006) are regarded as catalanist parties. The Catalan Parliament approved it with 120 of 135 affirmative votes. Only PP voted against.

PSC and ICV-EUiA are federalist parties with a sizeable portion of 'nationalist' or 'sovereignist' members but, while ICV is comfortable supporting the 'Right to Decide' (i.e. a Referendum on Independence) in PSC is a terrible headache. When the Catalan Parliament voted a resolution to hold a referendum last thursday there were opposed positions inside the socialist parliamentary group that they tried to solve with abstention. As I quoted before, a PSC deputy broke the discipline and voted "yes".

[Velasco]

Today starts the official campaign in the Basque Country and Galicia. Apparently tomorrow the CIS will publish polls for both elections.

There is a poll published by Gara and Naiz, both are media linked to the abertzale left. According to that poll:

PNV 35.1% and 26 seats (-4); EH-Bildu 26.8% and 22 (+17, keeping in mind that Aralar and EA got 5 seats in the last election); PSE-EE 16.3% and 14 (-11); PP 14.1% and 11 (-2); Esker Anitza (IU) 3.8% and 2 (+1) and UPyD 1.7% and 0 (-1).

http://www.naiz.info/media/asset_publics/resources/000/011/004/original/20121004encuesta_voto.pdf

I can't believe the result that they give for Araba (PNV gets 9 seats and PSE only 4).

[ag]

At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans.

It's not the Balkan associations that cause the shudder here

Courtesy of a certain midcentury political movement, there is a kind of a ban in force in Europe on using the words "nationalist" and "socialist" in one sentence in any sort of a remotely positive context

Of course, as the many leftist chavistas on this forum would seem to be testifying to, the ban does not apply outside Europe It seems, Catalunya in this case is equally non-European

[Velasco]

At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans.

It's not the Balkan associations that cause the shudder here

Courtesy of a certain midcentury political movement, there is a kind of a ban in force in Europe on using the words "nationalist" and "socialist" in one sentence in any sort of a remotely positive context

Of course, as the many leftist chavistas on this forum would seem to be testifying to, the ban does not apply outside Europe It seems, Catalunya in this case is equally non-European

I knew, ag, "national" and "socialism" make me shudder too . I shudder when I think about Greece or Hungary but in the case of Catalonia my main concerns are the economic consequences if secession comes true and the wild beast of the incomprehension. About Chavismo I'm glad to see that in this forum there are people who go further than the primaries "pro" and "anti" poses.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Britain there once was a small Marxist political party called the National Socialist Party; it was the right wing of what had been the British Socialist Party (previously the SDF) the majority of which became the CPGB. The split in the BSP was caused by the First World War, which the right supported and the left didn't. The NSP merged into the Labour Party - although in its West Ham stronghold it would be more accurate to put things the other way round - after the 1918 General Election.

[Niemeyerite]

CIS

Galicia:

PP 38 seats (=)
PSdeG 23-24 (-1/-2)
BNG 12-13 (-2/-3)
EU-ANOVA 1 (+1)

Euskadi:

PNV 27
EH-BILDU 21-22
PSE-EE 14
PP 9-10
Esker Anitza (IU) 3

[Velasco]

Camp Nou this evening.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2012/oct/07/barcelona-real-madrid-live-mbm

Visça Veneto Lliure! Ahem... I'm just kidding, don't worry