Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012

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Good news, obviously.

Bildu = Amaiur (+Aralar, Alternatiba and some other small things) which is know running as 'Euskal Herria Bildu' (EH Bildu). The Bildu coalition has also included EA, Garaikoetxea's old left-nationalist PNV splinter which has, since its 2009 rout, moved closer to the abertzale left. The EH Bildu candidate for lehendakari is Laura Mintegi, a fairly well known Basque author and academic.

It looks like the nationalist vote will increase by some, which must be a return to the traditional level after a poor 2009 election. Anger at the central government for the austerity measures, disappointment about a coalition without a nationalist party, and internal problems in the PP-PSOE agreement. Am I right in guessing that these are some of the reasons for the return of the nationalist vote?

Basically, yeah. In the last general election, Euskadi had already voted counter-current with Spain because the PP actually lost votes and the result was a strong nationalist victory (PNV + Amaiur). The 2009 election came on the heels of the PSOE's massive success in Euskadi in the 2008 general election, and there are certainly some nationalists among those who contributed to Socialist success back then have been voting for the abertzale left since last year. The new abertzale left is much less scary because it is no longer (entirely) a front for ETA, which has anyhow abandoned violence (ETA really wasn't a big deal in the 2011 elections). It can serve as a channel for all sorts of anger, anti-system feelings and left-wing oppositions; and the unpopularity of the austerity measures taken by Madrid have certainly helped.

Patxi Lopez himself isn't reviled or even very unpopular as Lehendakari, but his government is pretty unpopular.

The abertzale's success are based on transfers from some of those who had voted PSE in 2008/2009, for IU in those same years, some votes from the PNV; a considerable amount of votes from non-voters or people who had cast blank ballots pre-2011. At 25%, it certainly is far above the natural 10% or so floor for the radical abertzale left.

I doubt a post-election PNV-EHB formal coalition is an option, it would be very controversial in Spain even if probably not all that controversial in Euskadi itself. I guess the PNV could form a minority administration with EHB backing.

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What do the polls says in Catalunya?

I saw a poll a few days ago; CiU and PSOE down a bit from the last election, PP and ICV up a tad, ERC up a bit

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ftr, here is the poll I referenced:



It was for the very right-wing La Razon newspaper, but it doesn't seem too out of whack.

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La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.

Any reason why BNG is down?  You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

As the post you quoted said, the BNG has been going through major internal troubles. The EU-Anova list includes Xose Manuel Beiras, a former (very successful) BNG leader who has been on the losing end of recent leadership wranglings within the BNG (the winners being the current leadership formed by the communistic UPG). It is hard to assign clear ideological labels to the various factions, Beiras could be described as being kind of a New Left-type and the UPG is a bit more Old Left.

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You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

There's this factor as well. I've never really delved into it, but I don't think that Spain's peripheral nationalisms have 'tracked' each other in their surges and ebbs of electoral support.

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You'd think they'd be up right now because of their Basque/Catalan counterparts. 

Why?

Cause the austerity is causing the Basque and Catalonian left-wing nationalists to rise in support.  I'm surprised that it's not a similar situation in Galicia. 

The situation is more complex than that.

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Indeed, La Razón is basically an openly far-right newspaper (hence, one who thinks that only Franco understood how to deal with regional nationalism). I guess ABC and the online website Libertad Digital are about as right-wing.

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I thought that López's government was hated but that López the man had some fairly decent personal ratings (from the Euskobarometro poll, I think). Is his government's unpopularity due only to the stupid alliance with the Francoists or is it due to other factors, like the economy? How has his government been on economic issues - has he made any cuts? I know that the CAPV's debt has grown a lot under him, though it remains healthy by Spanish standards, and that there's some issue of him lending money to Madrid without interest meaning that Spain owes the CAPV money or something.

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Gren, sólo sé un poco sobre el "federalismo fiscal" en España, ¿puedes explicar un poco más los efectos beneficiosos del concierto sobre la economía vasca, en el contexto de la crisis?

Y estoy totalmente de acuerdo con tu análisis de la economía vasca. Bueno, me me gusta Patxi Lopez, pero creo que que cualquiera puede admitir que no merece crédito especial para el estado relativamente buena de la economía vasca.

(y espero tambien que mi espanol aqui no era demasiado mal!)

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C's is doing really well, and PP is holding up remarkably. I suspect it's due to the polarization in this campaign. Where is C's finding its new support? the PSC?