Basque, Catalonian and Galician parliamentary election, 2012

[Velasco]

A PNV-PSE coalition seems a bit unlikely. The relationship between the two parties is not too good after the Ibarretxe and Patxi López governments. PNV and nationalist people in general think that PSE 'stole' the lehendakaritza because they think that the ban of the radical abertzale left (Batasuna and associated labels) altered the 2009 election result. I think that with a strong nationalist majority PNV doesn't need PSE. In the case that EHB could get more seats than PNV, which is possible even if the abertzale left doesn't win the popular vote, the scenary would be more complex.

[Velasco]

The election in Galicia will be on October 21 too. The Galician president renounces to develop a controversial electoral reform.

[Velasco]

A map of the 2011 General Election in the Basque municipalities that I found somewhere. Amaiur won almost everywhere in Gipuzkoa (Guipúzcoa in Spanish) and several municipalities in eastern Biscay and northern Álava (Araba in Basque).

[Velasco]

La Voz de Galicia poll:

PP 43.4% and 39 seats (+1)

PSOE 26.4% and 24 (-1)

BNG 11.5% and 9 (-3)

EU-Anova 6.1% and 3 (+3)

According to this poll Núñez Feijoó could mantain the majority and a new force will appear in the Galician Parliament: Alternativa Galega (Galician Alternative). The latter is a coalition between the Galician branch of IU (United Left) and Anova-Irmandade Nacionalista, a new party lead by the former BNG candidate Xosé Manuel Beiras. The left-wing alliance intends to be a "Galician Syriza". Another group splitted from the BNG is CxG (Compromise for Galicia) that is composed by the former centre-left sector of BNG and other small centrist parties like Terra Galega.

[Velasco]

This poll is quite strange. Compare the predicted results in La Coruña and Pontevedra with the 2009 result. It seems a bit odd because PP is 0.4% up in the first province and 9.2% down in the second.  On the other hand the EU-Anova coalition will have to be renamed; the name "Alternativa Galega" is registered.



Nation-wide the Celeste-Tel September poll has the following results: PP 34%; PSOE 29.9%; IU 10.8% and UPyD 8.6%.

[Velasco]

There is something serious going on in Catalonia, especially after the massive independentist demonstration in Barcelona on September 11, the National Day (Diada) of Catalonia. The President of the Generalitat, Artur Mas, called for new 'constituent' elections :

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/25/inenglish/1348582138_981055.html

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[Velasco]

What do the polls says in Catalunya?

There are some listed on the Spanish Wikipedia.  I don't know how comprehensive the list is, of course.

Haven't there also been polls quite strongly pro-independence?

The Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), which depends on the Economy Department of the Generalitat, has some polls. Last poll about the question: "Which kind of political entity should Catalonia be with respect to Spain?": independent state 34%, confederal model 28.7% , current status 25.4% and "Spanish region" 5.7% .

More polls in the following link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_separatism#Polls

About La Razón poll, the PP's best records in Catalonia are 13% of the vote in 1995 and 18 seats in 2010. I think that is more realistic a vote percentage around 10-12%, although it seems that this election will be a sort of plebiscite.

[Velasco]

Will CiU actually make any moves towards independence (or maybe an SNP-style "devo max" option, or whatever "confederal model" means in that poll) after the election, or is all this talk hot air?

Honestly, I'm clueless. I'd say that the September 11 demonstration is a landmark and the Artur Mas recent move is really serious. When CiU won the last election, Artur Mas stated that the independence was not his goal at that moment ( he told "Ara no toca", that roughly means "now it's not the time"). The central element of the nationalist platform was the "fiscal pact" which means a similar taxation system to the "chartered regime" that works for the Basque Country and Navarre:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communities_of_chartered_regime

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That regime (the Fueros) has origins in the Middle Ages.

A confederal model could mean the recognition of Catalonia as a nation and a complete decentralization. From XV to XVIII centuries Spain was a personal union of two crowns: Castile and Aragon (with Catalonia as the main element). After the Spanish War of Sucession which ended with the siege of Barcelona, the Catalonian institutions (the medieval Generalitat) were supressed by the Nueva Planta decrees. The National Day of Catalonia conmemorates the anniversary of the surrender of Barcelona (September 11, 1714). Basque Country and Navarre mantained their institutions because these regions were alligned with the Bourbons, while the regions of the Crown of Aragon sided with the old dinasty of the Habsburgs.

Coming back to the present, the following article by Paddy Woodworth in the Irish Times explains very well the situation. I strongly recommend it:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0925/1224324359757.html

[Velasco]

La Vanguardia poll:


CiU 66-67 (+4/5); PSC 21 (-7); PP 15-16 (-2/3); ERC 13 (+3); ICV-EUiA 12 (+2); C's 4 (+1); SI 3 (-1). No vote percentages provided. The pollster is Feed-back (unknown to me), 1200 interviews between September 21 and 27. Notice that La Vanguardia is a newspaper published in Barcelona regarded as pro-CiU. If the poll is accurate, the parties supporting the September 11 demonstration could win at least 96 seats, more than 2/3 of the Catalonian Parliament. The newspaper also says that almost 84% agree with a referendum and the support for independence is 54.8% (33.5% against and 10.2% undecided). I don't know if La Vanguardia will provide more details tomorrow.

"Eta wins, Spain loses"...  and puts the individual photos of the judge underneath (on top of "Una sentencia lamentable". No translation necessary, right?) and that's the front page.

I'm pretty sure that years of inflamatory rethoric have contributed to fuel the independentist feelings. Perhaps is a very profitable speech in certain parts of Spain but really stupid if you want to make friends in Euskadi or Catalonia.

[Velasco]

El Mundo poll:



Pere Navarro, mayor of Terrassa and current leader of the party, will be the PSC candidate. He defeated Montserrat Tura, the candidate of the 'catalanist' faction, by a comfortable margin (73% of the delegates). Tura and Ernest Maragall will not be in the PSC list in the next election. Ernest Maragall is the brother of the former President Pasqual Maragall and grandson of Joan Maragall, a Catalan poet. He was conseller (regional minister) of Education and the deputy who broke the party's discipline:

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/09/27/inenglish/1348774590_743204.html

[Velasco]

Another poll, this time from El Periódico de Catalunya:




This poll shows ERC in the 3rd place with 17-18 seats and PP in the 4th with only 12-13, terrible PSC's performance and ICV's stagnation. Trust who you want. On the other hand it's remarkable the demoscopic silence in the Basque Country. Fear of an Euskal Herria Bildu's victory as someone suggest or maybe it's only the crisis?

Julio, I read this article in El País: "Who is who in the PSC". Do you know anything about Rocío Martínez-Sampere?
http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2012/09/28/catalunya/1348846823_566461.html

[Velasco]

I trust this poll. As I've always thought, ERC is very strong, PSC and PP very weak. I think PSC will recover a bit now.

ERC failed to reach an agreement with the other independentist forces: Solidaritat (SI), Reagrupament Independentista (RI) and the very left-wing Popular Unity Candidatures (CUP). The deputy Joan Laporta, former president of the FC Barcelona and SI head of list who left the party, was regarded the 63th deputy of CiU during the Legislature and is supposed to support Mas. Some people say that RI will do the same. The CUP will decide on October 13 if they run for the election, in that case it would be the first time because this group only stood for municipal elections (with some success in 2011).

and he will be helped by some nationalist socialists.

I couldn't help but shudder reading this. It's strange to see these words associated in a kind of progressist context...

At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans. It's a bit hard to explain, but in Catalonia exists a strong sense of cultural and 'national' identity. There is a word, 'Catalanism', that describes a cultural movement, emerged in the XIX Century, in defence of the "proper and distinctive values of the historic personality of Catalonia". All nationalists are supposed to be catalanists and also the 'federalist' left-wing parties (PSC-PSOE and PSUC, later ICV and EUiA). Those parties that supported the new Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia (2006) are regarded as catalanist parties. The Catalan Parliament approved it with 120 of 135 affirmative votes. Only PP voted against.

PSC and ICV-EUiA are federalist parties with a sizeable portion of 'nationalist' or 'sovereignist' members but, while ICV is comfortable supporting the 'Right to Decide' (i.e. a Referendum on Independence) in PSC is a terrible headache. When the Catalan Parliament voted a resolution to hold a referendum last thursday there were opposed positions inside the socialist parliamentary group that they tried to solve with abstention. As I quoted before, a PSC deputy broke the discipline and voted "yes".

[Velasco]

Today starts the official campaign in the Basque Country and Galicia. Apparently tomorrow the CIS will publish polls for both elections.

There is a poll published by Gara and Naiz, both are media linked to the abertzale left. According to that poll:

PNV 35.1% and 26 seats (-4); EH-Bildu 26.8% and 22 (+17, keeping in mind that Aralar and EA got 5 seats in the last election); PSE-EE 16.3% and 14 (-11); PP 14.1% and 11 (-2); Esker Anitza (IU) 3.8% and 2 (+1) and UPyD 1.7% and 0 (-1).

http://www.naiz.info/media/asset_publics/resources/000/011/004/original/20121004encuesta_voto.pdf

I can't believe the result that they give for Araba (PNV gets 9 seats and PSE only 4).

[Velasco]

At least nationalism in Catalonia has not the same connotation that it has in the Balkans.

It's not the Balkan associations that cause the shudder here

Courtesy of a certain midcentury political movement, there is a kind of a ban in force in Europe on using the words "nationalist" and "socialist" in one sentence in any sort of a remotely positive context

Of course, as the many leftist chavistas on this forum would seem to be testifying to, the ban does not apply outside Europe It seems, Catalunya in this case is equally non-European

I knew, ag, "national" and "socialism" make me shudder too . I shudder when I think about Greece or Hungary but in the case of Catalonia my main concerns are the economic consequences if secession comes true and the wild beast of the incomprehension. About Chavismo I'm glad to see that in this forum there are people who go further than the primaries "pro" and "anti" poses.

[Velasco]

Camp Nou this evening.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2012/oct/07/barcelona-real-madrid-live-mbm

Visça Veneto Lliure! Ahem... I'm just kidding, don't worry

[Velasco]

I found a questionaire about the Galician election. Unfortunately it's only in Spanish and Galician languages. I must be a voter of the Galician Left Alternative (AGE) if I have to trust this test.

http://www.horizontegalicia.com/

My result: AGE (EU, Anova, Equo, etc) 62.1%; BNG 54.6%; CxG 49%; PSOE 39.2%; UPyD 21.9% and PP -41.7%. Yes, you've read well, my proximity to PP is in negative numbers.

There is a "graphic of distance" which says that I'm relatively near to AGE, BNG, CxG and PSOE, far from UPyD and at a sideral distance from PP. On economics my distance from AGE is 9.4, 13.4 from BNG, 25 from CxG, 34.1 from PSOE, 37.8 from UPyD and... 87.6 from PP! On society I'm at 16.4 from BNG and CxG, 18.9 from AGE and PSOE, 39 from UPyD and... 84 from PP. On politics I'm at 25 from CxG, 31.3 from BNG, 32.7 from AGE and PSOE, 40.8 from UPyD and 68.1 from PP. On Galician issues 25 from AGE, 26.4 from PSOE, 45.1 from UPyD and 56.5 from PP.

Finally there is a left/right-centralism/devolution axis. On the ideologic axis I'm between PSOE and CxG (at my right) and AGE and BNG (at my left). On the other axis I'm closer to PSOE.

[Velasco]

Would Barca really want independence?

The current president, Sandro Rosell, is not as openly independentist as Joan Laporta but anyways:

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/05/barcelona-real-madrid-catalan-nationalists

I didn't answer all the questions, and I gave "no opinion" to most of the Galician questions as I don't have strong feelings about that issue.

Interesting that most people here seem to be getting about the same results.

Maybe that's the reason why your star is up on the 'centralism' axis, close to UPyD, or did you answer any question related to language policies?

[Velasco]

I didn't answer the language policy questions. But I did answer questions related to the EU, and I am strongly pro-EU. Maybe they included those in the centralism scale and that's why I'm so far up?

I don't know how it works but I don't think so. I'm not Euro-Sceptic and my result was different. Trust the circle: you are in the middle.

Let's give a face to the Galician candidates.



Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP). He's running a personal campaign showing himself as an example of solvent and austere manager and trying to take distance from the central government. The oposition tries to attack him claiming that the regional deficit is made up (El Pais published some evidence days ago) and with the issue of a supposed contract between PEMEX and the Galician shipyards. Feijóo stated that the contract is done but it seems that the Mexican Oil Company is considering various offers.



Pachi Vázquez (PSOE). Former mayor of O Carballiño (Ourense). The Galician socialists had to face a corruption scandal involving the mayor of Ourense in the beggining of the campaign. Also, other PP and BNG's elected officials are accused as a consequence of the 'Pokemon Operation'. Vázquez is regarded as a quite uncharismatic candidate.



Francisco Jorquera (BNG). Veteran nationalist who was Senator and Deputy in Madrid. Elected as the representant of UPG, the major faction in the BNG. The main challenge of the candidate is trying to mantain the strenght of the Galician Nationalist Bloc after several splits.



Xosé Manuel Beiras (Anova) and Yolanda Díaz (EU). Beiras is a charismatic and quite populist nationalist leader who was the BNG candidate when the Galician nationalism was at its peak. He left BNG and created a new party, Anova, composed by his former BNG faction (Encontro Irmandiño) and other nationalist groups. Later Anova reached an agreement with the Galician IU (Esquerda Unida) in order to create a "broad front" against the "barbaric" PP's policies. The coalition was named Alternativa Galega de Esquerda (AGE). Yolanda Díaz, the EU leader, is a combative Ferrol councillor.

Other candidates are Xoán Bascuas (CxG, Compromise for Galicia) and the former banker Mario Conde who has Galician roots and leads Civil Society and Democracy (SCD). Conde was released from prison five years ago, after being accused of embezzlement. Now he is commentator in the very right-wing Intereconomía, among other things. It seems that his choices are lower as long the campaign is advancing. An article about the guy:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/12/inenglish/1350065631_786311.html

[Velasco]

The same test for the Basque Country.

http://www.horizonteeuskadi.com/

Result: Equo-Berdeak 53%; Ezker Anitza (IU) 47.9%; EH-Bildu 45.8%; PSE-EE 37.1%; EAJ-PNV 24.6%; UPyD 15.4%; PP -29.2%

Alternative result (with another algorithm): Equo 59.5%; IU 56.7%; PSE-EE 53.3%; EHB 46.7%; PNV 38.3%; UPyD 25%; PP -25%

Proximity: IU on Economics, PSE on Society, Politics and Basque Country issues.

Ideological axis: between PSE and Equo. Centralism/Decentralisation: close to Ezker Anitza.

[Velasco]

El Mundo poll:

PNV 33.3% 24-26 seats; EHB 24.5% 20; PSE-EE 20.2% 16-18; PP 14.7% 12; UPyD 1-2 seats; IU 1.

Deia, Grupo Noticias:



EDIT: I forgot this one from Eustat




http://www.lehendakaritza.ejgv.euskadi.net/contenidos/informe_estudio/o_12praut/es_12praut/adjuntos/12praut_es.pdf

[Velasco]

It's curious, but depending on the algorithm (I wrote "logarithm" before, lapsus linguae) PSE and EHB appear in different places in my results. This didn't occur with the Galician test. If I remember well I was relatively close to EHB except on Basque Country issues. I support the release of prisoners with terminal illness, despite my strong antipathy for ETA.

[Velasco]

Disgracefully a CiU absolute majority is possible, despite the cutbacks, the high unemployement rate, the sinking regional finances... Artur Mas is a magician: he's turning sad waters into wine (my apologies to Nick Cave, this is a plagiarism). Worst of all, he is receiving an unvaluable help from PP's ministers.



Up: José Ignacio Wert (Spain's Minister of Education): "We want to 'Hispanicize' Catalan children" ("Españolizar" sounds pretty ugly, believe me).

Down: Artur Mas (Catalonian President): "This is just what I need".

Even the King is worried:

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/12/inenglish/1350053206_866433.html

Indeed Mr. Wert is a fire-eater and an arsonist, but his words reflect the mentality of certain right-wing (and UPyD and some leftists, for the record) in Madrid. I've read somewhere that if Catalonia gets independence, the Spain's Monarchy is over. I don't care too much about the King, because I'm Republican, but the consequences of a seccesion could be terrible. I'm sure that all of we, in the Rest of Spain, will be even poorer. Spain needs a deep Constitutional Reform but I'm afraid that this will never happen because of the blind resistance to change that show many people in Madrid and other parts of Spain.

Oh, I have another poll from El Correo/ Diario Vasco:

[Velasco]

To return on the subject, what CiU will do on the autonomy/independance front if elected with a majority?

Artur Mas has promised to hold a Referendum, with a CiU majority or with the support of other parties. There is some controversy about the referendum question, because Mas has a curious resistance to pronounce the word "independence". Days ago he told to La Vanguardia that the question could be: "do you want Catalonia turning into a new European state?". There are different opinions about what would happen with the EU if Catalonia secedes, because now belongs to it, but as a new country they´ll probably have to seek for admission. He also says that Catalonia needs to have an "estatal structure" and other things in the same fashion. Anyways he's pretty clear when he says that he would personally vote for independence. "Our ideal is to be part of the United States of Europe", he stated.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/world/europe/in-catalonia-spain-artur-mas-threatens-to-secede.html?pagewanted=1&ref=spain

[Velasco]

Wecome, it's great to have a Basque here.

Hi! As a Basque voter, I'm pretty interested in this particular issue. I think this election will be a turning point for Euskadi: a lot of things are going to change, hopefully, after O-21.

First of all, the current lehendakari will be ousted from office, something I'm extremely happy about. Someone said in a previous post that he's not particularly unpopular, but that's simply not true. Patxi Lopez is disliked by a whopping majority of the Basque people, particularly (but not exclusively) by the nationalists and the ezker abertzalea. He's been despised by the Basque society ever since he was sworn in as Lehendakari after a contra-natura deal with Basagoiti's PP. As far as I'm concerned, he's been a fairly incompetent leader and administrator and he'd better go home after the election.

I think that I wrote in a previous post something about what you're saying about the "contra-natura" deal and the ban of the abertzale left. Anyways I wonder if the dislike of López is because of his leadership and administration skills or it's only the "national question" what plays a role here.

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Agree mostly. I was always opposed to the ban of Batasuna but I can't avoid thinking that this measure was helpful in order to fight against ETA, so I understand the other position.

About PNV, you will win according to the polls so... I see PNV as center-right, not right wing, and some people has told me that they have developed some good social policies in Euskadi. Obviously, I've heard some criticism towards jetzales too.

[Velasco]

I love quoting myself...

...and with the issue of a supposed contract between PEMEX and the Galician shipyards. Feijóo stated that the contract is done but it seems that the Mexican Oil Company is considering various offers.

Enrique Peña Nieto is backing the contract negotiations. Well, he promises (generically) to help us to alleviate our dire straits:

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/10/15/inenglish/1350312477_915937.html

Good news for the shipyards in Vigo and Ferrol and for Feijóo.

Polls say that the incumbent Galician Premier is retaining the majority (37-41 seats according to Faro de Vigo and 39-41 if we trust La Voz de Galicia tracking)

Artur Mas gave more details about the steps that he will follow after the election on the referendum issue in an interview in TV3, the Catalan public television. Maybe I'll go into this later.