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  New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today
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Author Topic: New Quinnipiac polls of FL, OH & WI to be released @ 7am today  (Read 1968 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 23, 2012, 12:35:53 am »

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Also, a new University of Cincinnati poll for Ohio will be released later today.

UoC is historically the most accurate pollster in Ohio, so better we take a close look at this one.

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/OhioPoll/ViewPressReleases.html
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2012, 02:27:53 am »

I have a feeling Obama will lead in all three states.
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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2012, 02:53:52 am »

I predict Obama will be losing in Ohio and Florida; while Wisconsin is neck and neck.
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philly09
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« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2012, 06:00:41 am »

Here are the results

Florida:

Obama: 49

Romney: 46

Don't Know: 5

Ohio:

Obama: 50

Romney: 44

Don't Know: 4

Wisconsin:

Obama:49

Romney: 47

Don't Know: 3

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2012, 07:07:24 am »

Here are the results

Florida:

Obama: 49

Romney: 46

Don't Know: 5

Ohio:

Obama: 50

Romney: 44

Don't Know: 4

Wisconsin:

Obama:49

Romney: 47

Don't Know: 3



Have a link?
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2012, 07:44:21 am »
« Edited: August 23, 2012, 07:50:57 am by AWallTEP81 »

http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/political/quinnipiac-university-cbs-news-new-york-times-poll-obama-has-small-lead-in-key-swing-states

So they like Ryan, but not his plan, which makes sense.  What interest would seniors and working class voters have in gutting Medicare?  Obamacare is hardly popular; but that doesn't mean that voters aren't for a working healthcare system, which at the very least Obama and the Democrats are perceived to be working towards.  

Nonetheless, I"m surprised to see Obama up 6 in any poll of Ohio and would like to see some internals.  

NOTE: this is a LIKELY voter survey.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2012, 08:40:13 am »

Nice.
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Vern
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« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2012, 09:18:09 am »

None of this polls line up with other polls..
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Solidarity Forever
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« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2012, 09:30:48 am »

None of this polls line up with other polls..

Actually, yes, they do.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2012, 09:58:38 am »

Obama could actually do better in OH and FL than WI? Finally, this election is producing something interesting...

(Also, I called the results. Tongue )
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2012, 10:28:35 am »

Loving those Ohio numbers!!!
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2012, 10:38:12 am »
« Edited: August 23, 2012, 11:06:52 am by MorningInAmerica »

I'd like to point out that all these results but Ohio represent an IMPROVEMENT for Romney from Quinnipiac's last results. Remember last months Q polls of OH, FL, and WI and how well Obama did in them?

WI LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-47% this month represents a fair improvement

FL LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-46% this month represents a fair improvement

OH Last Month
Obama - 50%
Romney 44%
So Ohio has seen no change since last month.


Party ID on that Wisconsin Poll is D+4. 2008 exit poll data indicated turnout in WI was D+6 that year. 2012 Recall turnout was R+1. PPP's recent WI poll sample was R+2.

Party ID on that Florida poll is utterly bizarre. It's D+6, which is even more DEM friendly than 2008 turnout (which was D+3).

Party ID on that Ohio poll is D+8. It was D+8 in 2008.


Also, Guardian poll analyzer Harry Enten notes this:
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At least Yahoo notices the polling improvement for Romney. Here's the headline: Obama holds lead in Ohio, but slips in Florida and Wisconsin, poll shows
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-holds-lead-ohio-slips-florida-wisconsin-poll-104836458.html?_esi=1
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President von Cat
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« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2012, 10:57:54 am »

ROMNING AHEAD TO VICTORY

oh... wait...
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2012, 11:47:37 am »

I'd like to point out that all these results but Ohio represent an IMPROVEMENT for Romney from Quinnipiac's last results. Remember last months Q polls of OH, FL, and WI and how well Obama did in them?

WI LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-47% this month represents a fair improvement

FL LAST MONTH
Obama 51%
Romney 45%
So 49-46% this month represents a fair improvement

OH Last Month
Obama - 50%
Romney 44%
So Ohio has seen no change since last month.


Party ID on that Wisconsin Poll is D+4. 2008 exit poll data indicated turnout in WI was D+6 that year. 2012 Recall turnout was R+1. PPP's recent WI poll sample was R+2.

Party ID on that Florida poll is utterly bizarre. It's D+6, which is even more DEM friendly than 2008 turnout (which was D+3).

Party ID on that Ohio poll is D+8. It was D+8 in 2008.


Also, Guardian poll analyzer Harry Enten notes this:
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At least Yahoo notices the polling improvement for Romney. Here's the headline: Obama holds lead in Ohio, but slips in Florida and Wisconsin, poll shows
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-holds-lead-ohio-slips-florida-wisconsin-poll-104836458.html?_esi=1

I see nothing truly terrible about the internals.  Florida is probably within 1-2 pts, not a 3 pt lead for Obama.  Wisconsin is going thru it's Ryan bounce.  As for identical registration advantage for this poll and 2008 in Ohio... I can buy it in Ohio more so than other states, Romney just does not seem to have traction there. 
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2012, 12:03:46 pm »

So much for Ryanmentum.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2012, 12:11:43 pm »

The Party ID's, especially in Florida, are simply bizarre.

In Wisconsin and Florida, Romney improved from Q's last poll despite the very Democratic sample. While he stays the same in Ohio under a D+8 (!) sample.

To be honest, I don't feel that is shabby at all. Under a more realistic D+2/3 sample, Romney/Ryan would probably be leading in Florida, Wisconsin and be very close in Ohio.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2012, 12:23:39 pm »


You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
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Umengus
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2012, 12:43:06 pm »

with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2012, 12:54:06 pm »

with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI

Corrected?  You went to the future and found out with the actual vote Party ID was? Why not just tell us who won?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2012, 12:59:19 pm »

with samples corrected, Romney ahead in OH, FL and WI

With the samples corrected*, Rocky Anderson leads in all three! Smiley

*Changed to what I want them to be.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2012, 01:03:13 pm »


You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
Considering how Republicans have been whining on how you're suddenly winning some of these states, yes, "Ryanmentum" is BS.
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pepper11
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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2012, 01:41:13 pm »


You must have missed the part where Obama slipped in two states (Fl and WI), and stayed the same in one (OH).
Considering how Republicans have been whining on how you're suddenly winning some of these states, yes, "Ryanmentum" is BS.

Obama is a slight favorite. Ryan has helped Romney in recent swing state polling. The two are not mutually exclusive.
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