So I'd like to talk about Utah politics and what they will look like in the future (from later this year to 2018), regardless of how predictable they will probably be. I'll include Gubernatorial and Salt Lake County Mayoral races because I don't want to make another thread in the other section, and because the SLC Mayoral race is important enough for this (as Salt Lake County has over a million people in it). This thread will be sort of like Vosem's prediction thread, but centered on Utah, and anyone can offer a critique of my thoughts, or their own.
Anyway, My thoughts/predictions:
2012Utah's 1st: Rob Bishop will win, no real contest. Donna McAleer might be the Tammy Duckworth of Utah (female veteran, good candidate, etc), but that won't nearly be enough. Bishop is too entrenched and Utah's 1st is just too conservative. Plus, McAleer came out in favor of gay marriage, which is of course a method of electoral suicide in Utah. Bishop will win by at least 70%.
Utah's 2nd: I firmly believe that this is a more competitive race then it seems, as not only does the 2nd District contain a
fairly sizable chunk of Salt Lake City, but also Democrat Jay Seegmiller is a Matheson-style moderate who has defeated incumbents before. Additionally, Chris Stewart was only nominated after a
damaging bit of convention intrigue. Seegmiller knows how to target politicians perceived to be corrupt. But I will concede that Stewart will most likely win, and win by around 5-10%. There's a chance Seegmiller could win though.
Utah's 3rd: Let me put it this way. Democrat Soren Simonsen doesn't even have a campaign website, while Jason Chaffetz was given a speaking role at the RNC (before Hurricane Issac forced the GOP to change plans). Chaffetz will win, even if he dies in mid September or whatever.
Utah's 4th: Mia Love is probably the best candidate to topple Jim Matheson this year, but since she's still trailing Matheson by around 15 in the polls (what few polls there are... even in the most competitive race in Utah, we still don't get polled much), it still looks bad for her. Matheson will probably win by about 10-12%, judging by his previous performance against Morgan Philpot in 2010. It's unfortunate because I can't stand Matheson, but Mia Love's politics are dangerous. Regardless of my own personal feelings, there is a chance that Matheson could lose, as Love could pull off an upset.
Senate: Scott Howell talks an excellent game, and would be a great moderate Democratic candidate in a swing state, but this is Utah, his opponent is the living institution Orrin Hatch, and he already lost against Hatch twelve years ago. My guess is Hatch wins by roughly the same amount as he did in 2000, maybe up to 5% more.
Gubernatorial: Originally, I thought that Peter Cooke would be a fantastic candidate against Herbert, and could pull off a squeaker of a win. I even volunteered for him at the state Democratic convention, and though I met him and think he's a good guy, he doesn't seem to be as great a campaigner as I thought. He's still very unknown, and though Cooke's credentials as a retired Army Reserve General are beneficial, they don't outweigh the fact that Herbert hasn't really screwed up badly (he actually has, but none of his scandals have lasted). Cooke hasn't really been able to build a campaign narrative that can stick to Herbert, while the Governor himself just targets Obama (as all Utah Republicans do). I predict that Herbert will win in similar margins to 2010, with Cooke maybe getting 5-7% more than Corroon did.
Salt Lake County Mayor: This one is an actually interesting one, since the County Mayor position has been traditionally Democrat for a while, and Ben McAdams (the Democratic nominee) is fairly popular among Republicans. Remarkably for a Utah Democrat, McAdams has been able to pass half the bills he's introduced, and he's gotten endorsements from several Republican Mayors. I may be a bit biased (I'm personal friends with McAdams), but he seems to be a fantastic campaigner and very good at making friends among Utahns. Crockett on the other hand, has had angry issues in the past, and a few prominent Utah Republicans have denounced him. The few polls taken on this race vary wildly, but basically, it's a toss-up slightly favoring Crockett. I think that with the help of Peter Corroon's political machine McAdams will win, but Crockett has about a 50-50 chance of winning, probably.
2014 (no Senate, Gubernatorial, or County Mayor race this year)Utah's 1st: Rob Bishop will most certainly run again, and I predict that the Democrats will chose Ryan Combe (the loser of this year's 1st District Democratic primary) as the candidate against Bishop. And the outcome will likely be exactly the same as 2012.
Utah's 2nd: If Chris Stewart wins in 2012 (the likely scenario), I can see only two Democrats who would bother to mount an effort against him.
Tim Cosgrove or
Jen Seelig. They're one of the few Utah Democratic legislators that have a seat outside the Salt Lake City metro area (if you're a Democrat from SLC, you're hated by most of Utah and can't win, unless you're running for County Mayor), and so they'd be the only ones with a chance against Stewart. Not much of a chance though, since Stewart will be even more of a conservative favorite. And if my dream scenario happens and Seegmiller wins in 2012, there's literally a multitude of Utah Republicans ready to run against him.
Utah's 3rd: Doesn't matter who runs (I can't think of any current Democrats who would even
try), Chaffetz wins. It's probable that he'll just run unopposed. He won't have a GOP challenger in any case, as he's been a proto-Tea Partier his entire career.
Utah's 4th: If Jim Matheson wins, I predict a safe and young state legislator (Aaron Osmond, possibly, as he's a darling of conservatives in Utah) challenging him. And if he couldn't be picked off in 2010 or 2012 (with Mitt Romney at the head of the Republican ticket), then he will be even harder to beat in 2014. He might get a primary challenge though, which could make things interesting. If Mia Love wins, then I think the aforementioned Tim Cosgrove could make a credible try for this district as well. He's a Matheson-style moderate, so yeah, just needs the name recognition. But it's Matheson's race to lose, really.
2016Utah's 1st: Same as 2012 and 2014, unless Rob Bishop decides to retire for some reason. Then it's still safe Republican, but the primary would be interesting. Bishop probably won't go anywhere though.
Utah's 2nd: Again, if Stewart won in 2012, he now has a safe seat, even with scandals or dissatisfaction. Not sure who could run against him. If Seegmiller wins in 2012 and survives 2014, he attains Matheson status, and becomes known as an "independent", like Matheson. To be honest, if he wins, then he probably serves alongside Matheson. Running against Seegmiller/Matheson will become where Utah Republican careers go to die.
Utah's 3rd: Chaffetz smashes everything placed against him, again. Probably has a safe seat for 30+ years.
Utah's 4th: See the Utah's 2nd entry. Matheson will become a Utah institution at this point.
Senate: If Mike Lee keeps up his Strom Thurmond-esque tactics and does nothing else, he'll probably face minor opposition, but nothing serious. He'll keep his seat until all of Utah becomes more liberal. A possible Democratic challenger could be one of the already-rans from another year. Or Ben McAdams if McAdams wins as County Mayor in 2012, then tries for Senate.
Governor: I don't doubt that Herbert will run again in 2016 (assuming a crazy upset doesn't happen). He might get a conservative challenger again, and judging by how "more right-wing than thou" Utah is getting, he may run out of luck and lose in convention/primary. Assuming he doesn't, he'll only face token opposition again, unless Ben McAdams wins the County Mayor race in 2012. Then Ben could provide a potentially strong challenge with his powerbase in Salt Lake County. Herbert would probably easily win in any case though.
County Mayor: Just as Corroon didn't face any strong opposition in his second term as County Mayor, McAdams wouldn't face any if he won in 2012. If Crockett wins, there'll be a strong effort to defeat him from Salt Lake City itself to beat him.
2018:No idea for anything else (the rest are just Congressional races, which I've gone over repeatedly), but Hatch has said he'll retire this year, so it'll be interesting to see his replacement in the Senate. Whoever he chooses to endorse will basically win the election, so his choice will be the big factor in the race. I predict that Chaffetz will be his successor if Chaffetz doesn't want to stick around in the House.
I know this is terribly obscure Utah local politics stuff, but does anybody have any thoughts on it? Criticism or different views?
