1) The conservative Peter Fitzgerald defeating Moseley-Braun in IL in 1998? Actually, you could say he almost blew that one. One more week and Moseley-Braun, who had all the momentum in the last two weeks probably overtakes him. Still though, a conservative republican winning a senate seat in IL? Unlikely.
2) Saxby Chambliss defeating Max Cleland in GA in 2002 was not expected.
3) Maria Cantwell knocking out Slade Gorton in WA state in 2000. At the beginning of that race (despite Gorton's relatively weak win compared to the rest of the GOP in '94), most thought Gorton would win.
4) Stabenow's victory over Spence Abraham in 2000.
The only thing surprising about the Mosely-Braun loss was that she almost won. She was behind by double digits for most of September and October, although the final Zogby poll put her ahead 45%-42%.
Gordon's loss wasnt that surprising. Most fall polls showed the race pretty tight.
The 2000 Michigan race was one that closed fast in the final week and Stabanow was almost certainly pulled accross the finish line by Gore's larger than expected victory in the state.
And that's why it's always dangerous for the minority party in a state because the "home team" always tends to come home in the end and that's exactly what happened in IL in '98. Plus, Fitzgerald's lack of face time with the public didn't help him one bit and Carol had the full backing of Bill and Hillary Clinton who were VERY popular in IL in the late 90s.
Gorton found out that his strategy to ignore King County, which to this day tends to kill the GOP there didn't work.
