Gravis poll MO

[Ben Romney]

Gravis

Missouri:

McCaskill: 38.8
Akin: 37.3

Romney: 53.1
Obama: 36.1
Johnson: 04.1

http://www.scribd.com/doc/103846007/Gravis-Missouri-Poll-Romney-Up-Akin-in-Trouble-August-24-2012-2

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

While the poll and margins themselves look kind of sketchy, it seems to confirm what the majority of polls are saying - Akin is probably done for, but he's not hurting Romney enough to put the state in play yet.

[Tidus]

"This poll is laughable..."

My numbers:

McCaskill: 53.2 %
Akin: 43.1 %

Obama: 48.9 %
Romney: 48.0 %

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Your numbers? Did you do a poll?

[MaxQue]

"This poll is laughable..."

My numbers:

McCaskill: 53.2 %
Akin: 43.1 %

Obama: 48.9 %
Romney: 48.0 %

Oh, a Ben Romney clone.

[Tidus]

Your numbers? Did you do a poll?

Obviously not.

It´s just a parody... you are free to guess on which person

[Alcon]

"On the whole, about 80% of individuals disagree with the statement, with about 61% of likely Romney voters indicating disagreement and 82% of likely Obama voters."

I may be dense here, but how is that mathematically possible in a poll where Romney leads by 17?

[NVGonzalez]

DEM DECIMALS

[CultureKing]

lulz

[MaxQue]

"On the whole, about 80% of individuals disagree with the statement, with about 61% of likely Romney voters indicating disagreement and 82% of likely Obama voters."

I may be dense here, but how is that mathematically possible in a poll where Romney leads by 17?

Well, the undediced voters are strongly disagreeing with the statement.
It's the only thing possible.

[Alcon]

"On the whole, about 80% of individuals disagree with the statement, with about 61% of likely Romney voters indicating disagreement and 82% of likely Obama voters."

I may be dense here, but how is that mathematically possible in a poll where Romney leads by 17?

Well, the undediced voters are strongly disagreeing with the statement.
It's the only thing possible.

So, 82% of Obama voters disagree, and 61% of Romney voters...together, that's 89.2% of the electorate, so...

0.82*0.361 = 29.6% of votes are Disagree/Obama
0.61*0.531 = 32.4% of voters are Disagree/Romney
= 62.0% of decided Obama/Romney voters disagree

In other words, to get to "about 80%" (let's call that 75.0%) at least 13.0% of the remaining electorate has to agree.  However, there's only 10.8% worth of electorate leftover between Johnson/Undecided.  So, Johnson/Undecided voters would have to agree with the statement at a rate of 120% for those numbers to be possible.

Either I'm missing something, or this pollster is a little shoddy, at least this time.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

"On the whole, about 80% of individuals disagree with the statement, with about 61% of likely Romney voters indicating disagreement and 82% of likely Obama voters."

I may be dense here, but how is that mathematically possible in a poll where Romney leads by 17?

Looking at the crosstabs, it's apparent that whoever wrote the statement has mixed some numbers up.

The 61% and 82% are not of likely Romney and Obama voters respectively.

The 61% is the percentage of Republican voters who are both likely Romney voters and disagree with the statement.

The 82% is the percentage of Democratic voters who are both like Obama voters and disagree with the statement.

I'll do a little number crunching to get the percentages they should have given.

[Eraserhead]

More garbage.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Okay if I'm weighting the Dem's, Rep's and Ind's correctly, I'm getting from the crosstabs that:

95% of Obama supporters disagree with Akin's statement
70 or 71% of Romney supporters disagree  (It's too close to the round off for me to be sure given I'm uncertain as to the weightings.)

91 or 92% of Democrats disagree
67 or 68% of Republicans disagree
85% of Independents disagree

[Tender Branson]

More garbage.