Bradley Effect Myth Persists

[Alcon]

I agree -- I don't get this line of thinking.

It's really hard for me to believe that the social desirability effect could possibly be higher this year in 2008, when there wasn't any indication people lied to pollsters to avoid being perceived as racist and then voted Republican.  Obama now is an incumbent with a record.  Surely it's a lot easier now than in 2008 to oppose Obama for a reason perceived as race-neutral.

[Alcon]

the bradley effect:

1. now responsible for the statistical margin of error and/or arbitrarily state-specific

2. happens backwards for mexicans

[Alcon]

the bradley effect:

1. now responsible for the statistical margin of error and/or arbitrarily state-specific

2. happens backwards for mexicans

Iowa was outside of the MOE. 

It's almost like that happens 1-in-20 times or something, or there can be other explanations besides the Bradley Effect for people who aren't trying to force data to conform to their hypotheses.

I'm also glad you wouldn't call an overperformance in Hispanic states the Bradley Effect, because that would be completely and ridiculously incoherent.