Bradley Effect Myth Persists

[Smid]

I don't think it's going to happen this year, but it may have been possible last election with likely voter models, because there were so many enthusiastic people who voted for the first time in that election. I think one of the questions that screens likely voters is "did you vote last election?" - so perhaps that should have resulted in Obama receiving a swag of votes that may not have been picked up in likely voter polling. Then again, perhaps I'm wrong. I'm just putting it out there as a suggestion.

[Smid]

Of course the results remained the same as in the pre-election polls, because more Blacks compensated the loss of Whites.

This was the point I was trying to make. That there may have been unexpected voters compensating for other "lost" voters - hiding the presence of a possible Bradley effect.