MI-Mitchell Research (R): Tied race (or Romney/Ryan+1)

[Tender Branson]

Romney 47% - Obama 47%

When the vice presidential candidates are added to a trial ballot question, Romney/Ryan leads Obama/Biden by 1% (46%-45%).

When asked if Congressman Ryan’s vice presidential candidacy makes them more or less likely to vote for Romney, 53% say it makes them more likely and 47% less likely,” Steve Mitchell, Chairman of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Mitchell_MI_0826.pdf

[Miles]

Excellent news for Governor Romney

[tmthforu94]

Well, on stuff like this, I just base how good of news it is based on their last polls - the poll they came out with back on the 13th had Obama ahead by 5. So based off that, a six point swing is very good for Mitt.

[Reds4]

I wish this were true... but I'm not buying it for a second.. Romney has virtually no chance in Michigan, unless he wins nationally by a lot.

[tmthforu94]

I wish this were true... but I'm not buying it for a second.. Romney has virtually no chance in Michigan, unless he wins nationally by a lot.

Romney won't win Michigan without winning the election.

That being said, I could see Michigan being one of the first states to vote for Romney after the 270 mark.

^^^This, in my opinion, is probably Romney's most realistic shot at 270, with Ryan as his VP. Now, after that, Iowa is probably next to fall, and after that, Colorado and New Hampshire. But after that point, I'd say Michigan is arguably the most likely state to fall to Romney, more than Pennsylvania, Nevada, or New Mexico.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would agree with that assesment. He could be doing better in Michigan and possibly putting it as a possibly state to 270, had he addressed the auto bailout issue during the primaries against Santorum more effectively.

[opebo]

Ryan is a perfect fit for Michigan, but I still doubt the white working class will go heavily enough for him to overwhelm other elements of the electorate.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Obama is likely going to have to campaign heavily in Michigan and will probably eke out a 2-point win. That's good news for Romney if things keep up.

[TheGlobalizer]

FWIW, I could see MI going for Romney before VA.  Both are trending in opposite directions and Romney/Ryan seems exceptionally well-suited to push both trends.

[Sbane]

Hasn't this pollster always shown good results for Romney here?

[Likely Voter]

Hasn't this pollster always shown good results for Romney here?

Two weeks ago their poll was Obama +5, but their previous polls showed a significant Romney bias relative to other polls. The poll from late July was Romney+1 when Rasmussen had it as Obama +6 and PPP had it as Obama +14. In June Mitchell had it as Obama +1, Rasmussen as Obama +8.

[pbrower2a]

Junk pollster; unreliable poll.

[J. J.]

Junk pollster; unreliable poll.

Not a great poll, but it does show a closing trend.