Iowa (PPP): Obama leads by 2 among likely voters

[Tender Branson]

If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 45%

...

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3.

Democrat ........................................................ 35%
Republican...................................................... 38%
Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,244 likely Iowa voters from August 23-26. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_IA_828.pdf

[Miles]

You beat me by about 30 seconds, Tender!

Entered.

[MorningInAmerica]

PPP's last poll of Iowa was of registered voters, taken in mid-July. It had Obama leading by 5 points, 48-43%.

[Likely Voter]

IA certainly seems to be a state trending R. Even though it has traditionally been more D, this year it seems that it will be a bit more R than the national avg. Romney could win IA, while losing states like OH, VA and/or CO.

In the past, that would seem ridiculous.

[Sbane]

Seems like a good poll. Party ID seems about right, maybe even a little R friendly. I want more polling out of Iowa though.

[tmthforu94]

It makes sense - Mitt will improve in statewide polls once LV is used instead of RV.

[California8429]

It makes sense - Mitt will improve in statewide polls once LV is used instead of RV.

^

However I don't understand how he can piss off Iowa with wind, retreat from the comment while sticking by it and not offend these people. Only McCain can say screw your ethanol and still come in a respectable place in the caucus.

[Devils30]

This sample was plenty GOP friendly. Still think Obama wins here by roughly the same as his national average (which means a GOP trend from 2008)

[pbrower2a]

The difference is between 'likely voters' and 'registered voters'. That is about a 4% difference to the apparent favor of Republicans. Does anyone think that the Obama campaign won't be seeking the 'not-so-likely voters'? That's why politicians have get-out-the-vote drives. 

A 'likely voters' screen well fits off-year and midterm elections. It 'favors' the older and more entrenched part of the electorate. Count on the Obama campaign to seek out voters of 2008 and new voters, especially the current undergrad students who were too young to vote in 2008. Count on the GOP to try to push despair upon people who might support President Obama and Democrats in general.

President Obama is still up in Iowa with a 'likely voters' screen similar to the sort that Rasmussen uses. Face it -- if Republicans are down in with 'likely voters' at this stage in Iowa and Wisconsin, then they are in deep trouble. They are going to need a catastrophic failure of President Obama between now and Election Day -- and time is running out for that. An economic collapse? There's no speculative boom to go awry.

Iowa and Wisconsin go largely in tandem due to similar demographics. Sure, one went for Dubya in 2004 as the other went for Kerry -- by razor-edge margins that show how close things were for those two states.  Iowa and Wisconsin together have as many electoral votes as Michigan, and if Romney gets one he gets the other. The VP choice doesn't have that much effect.