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  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  What's Up With Gallup?
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« on: August 28, 2012, 02:30:44 pm »

Gallup pollings has been really GOP-friendly so far this cycle. Even Nate Silver over at 538 says they've been off.
According to them, Obama's approval rating has fallen to -5 (43-48) and hasn't been positive since like early August or so. He hasn't lead in national tracker since right before the Ryan pick either. He's been mired at 46 percent.
At Rasmussen for some reason he's been leading Romney for the past week or so. His approval has been hovering between 47-50. Right now he leads Romney by two and his approval is +1 (50-49). And you know how off Scott's results can be. So what's up with Gallup?
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2012, 03:17:52 pm »

From what I've heard, their polling technology is very outdated.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2012, 03:18:48 pm »

Considering the train wreck they were in 2008, this isn't a shock.
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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2012, 03:20:39 pm »

Gallup himself is a conservative. That is not a secret and should tell you what you need to know.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2012, 03:33:59 pm »

Gallup himself is a conservative. That is not a secret and should tell you what you need to know.

PPP is a liberal company, so why should we not consider them biased?
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2012, 03:39:40 pm »

Gallup himself is a conservative. That is not a secret and should tell you what you need to know.

PPP is a liberal company, so why should we not consider them biased?
I don't think it necessarily matters about the political leanings of a pollster. We should just adjust for "house effects" like Silver says. PPP skews Dem and Rasmussen skews a tad Rep. We all know this.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2012, 03:46:07 pm »

Gallup is not a good polling firm. See 2008 and 2012.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2012, 03:53:08 pm »

Gallup pollings has been really GOP-friendly so far this cycle.

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/08/poll-watch-gallup-2012-daily_28.html#more. Read this. Nate Silver may be down on Gallup, but they haven't necessarily been "GOP friendly."  Barack Obama led Mitt Romney for 42 out of the 45 days prior to the Ryan selection. How is that "GOP-friendly?" Out of the 130 total days Gallup has been tracking the race, Obama has led or tied Romney 88/130 days. Romney has led or tied Obama 68/130 days. Again, where are you getting this "Gallup is GOP-friendly" meme from? If you're ONLY looking at the past 2 weeks, then okay. But other than that, facts don't bare it out.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2012, 03:58:53 pm »

Gallup pollings has been really GOP-friendly so far this cycle.

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/08/poll-watch-gallup-2012-daily_28.html#more. Read this. Nate Silver may be down on Gallup, but they haven't necessarily been "GOP friendly."  Barack Obama led Mitt Romney for 42 out of the 45 days prior to the Ryan selection. How is that "GOP-friendly?" Out of the 130 total days Gallup has been tracking the race, Obama has led or tied Romney 88/130 days. Romney has led or tied Obama 68/130 days. Again, where are you getting this "Gallup is GOP-friendly" meme from? If you're ONLY looking at the past 2 weeks, then okay. But other than that, facts don't bare it out.
I mean he hasn't been able to crack 46-47 percent really. And his approval and tracking numbers are far worse with them than other polling firms.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2012, 04:14:02 pm »
« Edited: August 28, 2012, 04:16:33 pm by The Ex-Factor »

Mark Blumenthal explained it all in a looooong post a few months back. Basically Gallup undercounts minorities. Pew Research on average estimates the black/hispanic vote to be 24.8% of the electorate, while Gallup estimates 21.4%. If you recalculate the Gallup Obama approval rating based on Pew Research demographics then the house effect is effectively wiped out.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/17/gallup-poll-race-barack-obama_n_1589937.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Or I suppose you could argue Pew Research overcounts minorities, whatever you choose to believe.
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pepper11
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« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2012, 04:22:00 pm »

Gallup : Romney + 1
RCP average: Obama + 1

Margin of error. Nothing is up with them.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2012, 04:28:00 pm »

Gallup : Romney + 1
RCP average: Obama + 1

Margin of error. Nothing is up with them.

Leading Romney for 88/130 days doesn't sound "GOP friendly to me." Neither does leading for the 42/45 days prior to the Ryan-pick.
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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2012, 06:56:54 pm »

Gallup himself is a conservative. That is not a secret and should tell you what you need to know.

PPP is a liberal company, so why should we not consider them biased?

Who said I wasn't?
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J. J.
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« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2012, 06:59:45 pm »

Gallup was way off in 2008, but its results were in favor of Obama.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2012, 08:47:16 am »

Gallup himself is a conservative. That is not a secret and should tell you what you need to know.

George Gallup has been dead for like 30 years.
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