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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  What's Up With Gallup? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What's Up With Gallup?  (Read 2412 times)
The Ex-Factor
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« on: August 28, 2012, 04:14:02 pm »
« edited: August 28, 2012, 04:16:33 pm by The Ex-Factor »

Mark Blumenthal explained it all in a looooong post a few months back. Basically Gallup undercounts minorities. Pew Research on average estimates the black/hispanic vote to be 24.8% of the electorate, while Gallup estimates 21.4%. If you recalculate the Gallup Obama approval rating based on Pew Research demographics then the house effect is effectively wiped out.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/17/gallup-poll-race-barack-obama_n_1589937.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Or I suppose you could argue Pew Research overcounts minorities, whatever you choose to believe.
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