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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  What's Up With Gallup? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What's Up With Gallup?  (Read 2436 times)
Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

« on: August 28, 2012, 02:30:44 pm »

Gallup pollings has been really GOP-friendly so far this cycle. Even Nate Silver over at 538 says they've been off.
According to them, Obama's approval rating has fallen to -5 (43-48) and hasn't been positive since like early August or so. He hasn't lead in national tracker since right before the Ryan pick either. He's been mired at 46 percent.
At Rasmussen for some reason he's been leading Romney for the past week or so. His approval has been hovering between 47-50. Right now he leads Romney by two and his approval is +1 (50-49). And you know how off Scott's results can be. So what's up with Gallup?
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,595
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2012, 03:39:40 pm »

Gallup himself is a conservative. That is not a secret and should tell you what you need to know.

PPP is a liberal company, so why should we not consider them biased?
I don't think it necessarily matters about the political leanings of a pollster. We should just adjust for "house effects" like Silver says. PPP skews Dem and Rasmussen skews a tad Rep. We all know this.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,595
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -4.70

« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2012, 03:58:53 pm »

Gallup pollings has been really GOP-friendly so far this cycle.

http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/08/poll-watch-gallup-2012-daily_28.html#more. Read this. Nate Silver may be down on Gallup, but they haven't necessarily been "GOP friendly."  Barack Obama led Mitt Romney for 42 out of the 45 days prior to the Ryan selection. How is that "GOP-friendly?" Out of the 130 total days Gallup has been tracking the race, Obama has led or tied Romney 88/130 days. Romney has led or tied Obama 68/130 days. Again, where are you getting this "Gallup is GOP-friendly" meme from? If you're ONLY looking at the past 2 weeks, then okay. But other than that, facts don't bare it out.
I mean he hasn't been able to crack 46-47 percent really. And his approval and tracking numbers are far worse with them than other polling firms.
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