Kerry/Bush results for new CDs
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Author Topic: Kerry/Bush results for new CDs  (Read 7808 times)
nclib
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« on: August 28, 2012, 06:58:18 PM »

I know we have this in many different places, but it would be nice to have it all here.

I'll start with Pennsylvania:

District Kerry Bush PVI

PA-1 77.2% 22.8% D+28
PA-2 89.3% 10.7% D+39
PA-3 45.3% 54.7% R+5
PA-4 38.3% 61.7% R+9
PA-5 42.1% 57.9% R+6
PA-6 46.8% 53.2% R+1
PA-7 47.1% 52.9% R+2
PA-8 50.6% 49.4% D+1
PA-9 40.1% 59.9% R+10
PA-10 36.5% 63.5% R+11
PA-11 41.9% 58.1% R+6
PA-12 45.7% 54.3% R+6
PA-13 60.8% 39.2% D+12
PA-14 67.7% 32.3% D+17
PA-15 46% 54% R+2
PA-16 40.8% 59.2% R+5
PA-17 53.3% 46.7% D+4
PA-18 45.4% 54.6% R+6
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2012, 08:35:01 PM »

The Republican districts in NC are remarkably consistent; they're all 63%-ish Bush:

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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2012, 08:59:22 PM »

Texas

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Napoleon
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2012, 12:10:58 AM »

This thread is fcking awesome.
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2012, 12:12:48 AM »

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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2012, 03:07:04 PM »

Those new county splits are going to be annoying when I break down AR results by CD for the next decade.

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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2012, 03:32:53 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2012, 12:47:31 AM by MilesC56 »

Here are the states we've done plus a few more obvious states:

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Sbane
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2012, 05:00:22 PM »

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?
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Napoleon
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2012, 06:37:41 PM »

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too... Smiley
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2012, 12:31:53 PM »

Here's Illinois, with thanks to Krazen:

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10
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muon2
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2012, 04:45:59 PM »

Here's Illinois, with thanks to Krazen:

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10


Harrumph.
Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2012, 07:46:39 PM »

Here's Illinois, with thanks to Krazen:

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10


Harrumph.
Here's what I have for '04 (Kerry/Bush), '08 (Obama/McCain), and PVI for each district.

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10


Yes, I linked that post to Mr. Miles. He should not have give me credit.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2012, 10:06:30 PM »

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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2012, 10:19:07 PM »

Ahhh...I'm sorry moun.

I think I was just about to lose power in the hurricane last week when I posted that; I sent Krazen a PM asking about the IL numbers and just hastily copied the ones he gave me without checking the source.
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muon2
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2012, 05:52:02 PM »

Ahhh...I'm sorry moun.

I think I was just about to lose power in the hurricane last week when I posted that; I sent Krazen a PM asking about the IL numbers and just hastily copied the ones he gave me without checking the source.

No problem. I do think this project is useful. Presumably the numbers must be around the web for other states, since PVIs have been calculated and they need both 04 and 08 results. If you have PVIs and 08, you can reverse the calculation to get the 04 set.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2012, 12:41:03 AM »

Miles to you have the exact numbers for New Mexico and/or West Virginia?
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2012, 12:53:13 AM »

Miles to you have the exact numbers for New Mexico and/or West Virginia?

Both of those maps are more or less unchanged from their old iterations.  

In WV they only moved Mason county from CD2 to CD3. The NM districts were also pretty much intact. According to DKE's distribution chart, CD1 and CD3 keep virtually 100% of their old voters while CD2 likewise retains 96.5% of its current electorate.

So, I just pulled the 2004 numbers from the Swing State Project's Pres-by-CD chart for the old districts.
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2012, 01:10:23 AM »

If anyone is interested in breaking down the numbers for Georgia, I just dug up precinct-level results for 2004 from the SoS.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2012, 07:21:08 AM »

New Jersey.


District   Kerry   Bush   PVI   Gore   Bush   2004PVI
1   60.50%   39.50%   D+12   65.40%   34.60%   D+13
2   49.10%   50.90%   EVEN   55.70%   44.30%   D+3
3   47.90%   52.10%   R+1   54.60%   45.40%   D+2
4   42.50%   57.50%   R+7   49.90%   50.10%   R+3
5   45.70%   54.30%   R+4   50.60%   49.40%   R+1
6   55.30%   44.70%   D+6   61.40%   38.60%   D+9
7   43%   57%   R+6   44.80%   55.20%   R+6
8   68.90%   31.10%   D+20   73.20%   26.80%   D+22
9   60.60%   39.40%   D+11   64.90%   35.10%   D+13
10   81.40%   18.60%   D+32   83.60%   16.40%   D+33
11   42.50%   57.50%   R+6   45.30%   54.70%   R+6
12   61.40%   38.60%   D+13   65.10%   34.90%   D+14
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2012, 05:23:35 PM »

I crunched the numbers for Louisiana:



CDs 2, 4, 5 all stayed remarkably stagnant from 2004 to 2008, with Obama and Kerry performing within a point or two of eachother.

The most salient swings against Obama were in Cajunland (CD3) and in the suburban New Orleans CD1, neither of which surprise me. CD3 swung 7.5 points against Obama, going from 60.5/38 Bush to 64/34 McCain. CD1 was similar, moving 8 points towards McCain; it shifted from 69/30 Bush to 73/25 McCain.

Other than that, CD6 also saw a noticeable Republican swing of 5.5 points; in 2004, it was 65/34 Bush but increased to 67.5/31 McCain in 2008.
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Miles
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« Reply #20 on: September 07, 2012, 11:17:36 AM »

I added a few states that were relatively unchanged after redistricting:



And I started a 2004-2008 swing map:

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nclib
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« Reply #21 on: September 07, 2012, 06:12:43 PM »

Miles to you have the exact numbers for New Mexico and/or West Virginia?

Both of those maps are more or less unchanged from their old iterations.  

In WV they only moved Mason county from CD2 to CD3. The NM districts were also pretty much intact. According to DKE's distribution chart, CD1 and CD3 keep virtually 100% of their old voters while CD2 likewise retains 96.5% of its current electorate.

So, I just pulled the 2004 numbers from the Swing State Project's Pres-by-CD chart for the old districts.

Also, WV is composed of whole counties, as is Iowa:

Kerry/Bush in Iowa   
IA-1   53.1-46.1
IA-2   52.5-46.5
IA-3   47.1-52.1
IA-4   44.2-55.0
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nclib
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« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2012, 09:57:33 PM »

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too... Smiley

I seem to recall New York being posted on DKE, but I couldn't find it with their search function.
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nclib
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2012, 05:23:45 PM »

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too... Smiley

I seem to recall New York being posted on DKE, but I couldn't find it with their search function.

Found it on RRH, though this is for the Special Master map.

Dist. Kerry Bush Clinton Lazio
1 49.3% 50.7% 40.7% 59.3%
2 49.5% 50.5% 41.2% 58.8%
3 51.8% 48.2% 44.9% 55.1%
4 54.4% 45.6% 47.3% 52.7%
5 84.8% 15.2% 83% 17%
6 60.1% 39.9% 57.6% 42.4%
7 81.5% 18.5% 81% 19%
8 80.3% 19.7% 80.9% 19.1%
9 83.3% 16.7% 84.3% 15.7%
10 72.2% 27.8% 69.2% 30.8%
11 43.4% 56.6% 42.8% 57.2%
12 76.8% 23.2% 71.8% 28.2%
13 91.7% 8.3% 90.3% 9.7%
14 70.7% 29.3% 71.1% 28.9%
15 91.8% 8.2% 93% 7%
16 68.1% 31.9% 63.6% 36.4%
17 54% 46% 48.8% 51.2%
18 46.2% 53.8% 40.6% 59.4%
19 48.7% 51.3% 44.2% 55.8%
20 55.9% 44.1% 54% 46%
21 47.1% 52.9% 45.5% 54.5%
22 46.3% 53.7% 45.6% 54.4%
23 45.1% 54.9% 44.5% 55.5%
24 52.2% 47.8% 51.4% 48.6%
25 52.1% 47.9% 49.8% 50.2%
26 63.4% 36.6% 63.3% 36.7%
27 42.6% 57.4% 43% 57%
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2012, 06:13:46 PM »

Great find! I'll update the map soon.
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