Kerry/Bush results for new CDs (user search)
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Author Topic: Kerry/Bush results for new CDs  (Read 7882 times)
nclib
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« on: August 28, 2012, 06:58:18 PM »

I know we have this in many different places, but it would be nice to have it all here.

I'll start with Pennsylvania:

District Kerry Bush PVI

PA-1 77.2% 22.8% D+28
PA-2 89.3% 10.7% D+39
PA-3 45.3% 54.7% R+5
PA-4 38.3% 61.7% R+9
PA-5 42.1% 57.9% R+6
PA-6 46.8% 53.2% R+1
PA-7 47.1% 52.9% R+2
PA-8 50.6% 49.4% D+1
PA-9 40.1% 59.9% R+10
PA-10 36.5% 63.5% R+11
PA-11 41.9% 58.1% R+6
PA-12 45.7% 54.3% R+6
PA-13 60.8% 39.2% D+12
PA-14 67.7% 32.3% D+17
PA-15 46% 54% R+2
PA-16 40.8% 59.2% R+5
PA-17 53.3% 46.7% D+4
PA-18 45.4% 54.6% R+6
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nclib
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2012, 06:12:43 PM »

Miles to you have the exact numbers for New Mexico and/or West Virginia?

Both of those maps are more or less unchanged from their old iterations.  

In WV they only moved Mason county from CD2 to CD3. The NM districts were also pretty much intact. According to DKE's distribution chart, CD1 and CD3 keep virtually 100% of their old voters while CD2 likewise retains 96.5% of its current electorate.

So, I just pulled the 2004 numbers from the Swing State Project's Pres-by-CD chart for the old districts.

Also, WV is composed of whole counties, as is Iowa:

Kerry/Bush in Iowa   
IA-1   53.1-46.1
IA-2   52.5-46.5
IA-3   47.1-52.1
IA-4   44.2-55.0
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nclib
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2012, 09:57:33 PM »

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too... Smiley

I seem to recall New York being posted on DKE, but I couldn't find it with their search function.
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nclib
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2012, 05:23:45 PM »

Anyone have California numbers for Bush v Kerry? Or could you guide me to the thread where I can find it?

New York and Florida too... Smiley

I seem to recall New York being posted on DKE, but I couldn't find it with their search function.

Found it on RRH, though this is for the Special Master map.

Dist. Kerry Bush Clinton Lazio
1 49.3% 50.7% 40.7% 59.3%
2 49.5% 50.5% 41.2% 58.8%
3 51.8% 48.2% 44.9% 55.1%
4 54.4% 45.6% 47.3% 52.7%
5 84.8% 15.2% 83% 17%
6 60.1% 39.9% 57.6% 42.4%
7 81.5% 18.5% 81% 19%
8 80.3% 19.7% 80.9% 19.1%
9 83.3% 16.7% 84.3% 15.7%
10 72.2% 27.8% 69.2% 30.8%
11 43.4% 56.6% 42.8% 57.2%
12 76.8% 23.2% 71.8% 28.2%
13 91.7% 8.3% 90.3% 9.7%
14 70.7% 29.3% 71.1% 28.9%
15 91.8% 8.2% 93% 7%
16 68.1% 31.9% 63.6% 36.4%
17 54% 46% 48.8% 51.2%
18 46.2% 53.8% 40.6% 59.4%
19 48.7% 51.3% 44.2% 55.8%
20 55.9% 44.1% 54% 46%
21 47.1% 52.9% 45.5% 54.5%
22 46.3% 53.7% 45.6% 54.4%
23 45.1% 54.9% 44.5% 55.5%
24 52.2% 47.8% 51.4% 48.6%
25 52.1% 47.9% 49.8% 50.2%
26 63.4% 36.6% 63.3% 36.7%
27 42.6% 57.4% 43% 57%
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nclib
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Posts: 10,300
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2012, 06:18:56 PM »

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

Great find, Miles! These appear to be the GOP/DEM incumbents running in Kerry/McCain seats.

Kerry/GOP

Walsh (IL-8)
Dold (IL-10)
Biggert (IL-11)
Schilling (IL-17)
Cravaack (MN-8)
Bass (NH-2)
Buerkle (NY-24)
Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

McCain/Dem

Barber (AZ-2)
Barrow (GA-12)
Chandler (KY-6)
Peterson (MN-7)
McIntyre (NC-7)
Kissell (NC-8)
Hochul (NY-27)
Critz (PA-12)
Matheson (UT-4)
Rahall (WV-3)
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nclib
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2012, 08:54:30 PM »

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

Great find, Miles! These appear to be the GOP/DEM incumbents running in Kerry/McCain seats.

Kerry/GOP

Walsh (IL-8)
Dold (IL-10)
Biggert (IL-11)
Schilling (IL-17)
Cravaack (MN-8)
Bass (NH-2)
Buerkle (NY-24)
Fitzpatrick (PA-8)

McCain/Dem

Barber (AZ-2)
Barrow (GA-12)
Chandler (KY-6)
Peterson (MN-7)
McIntyre (NC-7)
Kissell (NC-8)
Hochul (NY-27)
Critz (PA-12)
Matheson (UT-4)
Rahall (WV-3)


There's got to be a couple Kerry/GOP districts in California now.  CA-26, CA-31, CA-41, and possibly CA-52 come to mind. 

All of those voted for Bush. You might forget how strong the swing to Obama was, but Kerry didn't do nearly as well in California as Obama did.

Yes, the combination of Obama overperforming among higher-income suburban whites, and Bush overperforming among Hispanics (though Cook's report mentions that CA-26 and CA-52 are too close to be confirmed).
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nclib
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Posts: 10,300
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2012, 07:35:31 PM »

BTW, does anyone know of a site (here or elsewhere) with racial data and/or area (sq. miles) for the new CD's?
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nclib
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Posts: 10,300
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2012, 09:17:36 PM »

Comparing the Kerry/Bush results before/after, in some states more relevant than 2008 (unlisted states stayed the same):

AZ - New CD narrowly for Bush
GA - Bishop's and Barrow's CD's go from narrowly Bush to safely Kerry and safely Bush
IL - goes from 10-9 Kerry to 12-6 Kerry; one Bush CD eliminated; Walsh and Biggert go from Bush to Kerry, narrowly for Biggert
IA - Boswell (Bush) and Latham (Bush) combined into one Bush CD
LA - lost a Bush CD
MA - lost a Kerry CD (all are/were Kerry CD's)
MI - lost a Bush CD (Peters, who is now in a black-majority CD)
MO - lost a Kerry CD
NV - Heck (NV-3) goes from narrowly Bush to safely Bush, and new (NV-4) is narrowly Bush
NJ - lost a Kerry CD
NY - all incumbents the same, with 2 Kerry seats (Turner, Hinchey) gone
NC - Brad Miller's old seat (NC-13) goes from Kerry to Bush
OH - goes from (Kerry-Bush) 5-13 to 4-12; Kaptur and Kucinich's Kerry CD's combined to one Kerry, likewise for Sutton and Ryan, Turner and Austria likewise for Bush, new Columbus CD Kerry
PA - Gerlach (PA-6) and Meehan (PA-7) go from Kerry to Bush, PA-7 narrowly; Fitzpatrick (PA-8) more narrowly Kerry, Barletta (PA-11) from Kerry to Bush, Holden's old seat (PA-17) from Bush to Kerry; Altmire (Bush) and Critz (Kerry) become one Bush CD
SC - gain Bush CD
TX - gain one Kerry CD and three Bush CD's
UT - gain Bush CD (all are/were Bush CD's)
VA - Connelly (VA-11) goes from narrowly Bush to safely Kerry
WA - new CD Kerry, and Reichert (WA-8) goes from Kerry to Bush
WI - Duffy (WI-7) goes from Kerry to Bush

Can someone try CA and FL, not sure which CD's best match up?

Looks like the pro-Republican bent is reflected in a 2004 numbers.
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