Kerry/Bush results for new CDs

[Miles]

The Republican districts in NC are remarkably consistent; they're all 63%-ish Bush:

[Miles]

Texas

[Miles]

Those new county splits are going to be annoying when I break down AR results by CD for the next decade.

[Miles]

Here are the states we've done plus a few more obvious states:

[Miles]

Here's Illinois, with thanks to Krazen:

CD 1: 76/22, 80/18, D+28
CD 2: 74/24, 81/18, D+27
CD 3: 53/45, 57/40, D+5
CD 4: 71/26, 79/18, D+26
CD 5: 63/35, 69/29, D+16
CD 6: 41/58, 51/47, R+5
CD 7: 83/14, 89/9, D+37
CD 8: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 9: 63/35, 68/30, D+15
CD 10: 53/45, 63/35, D+8
CD 11: 50/48, 61/37, D+5
CD 12: 50/48, 55/43, D+2
CD 13: 47/50, 54/43, D+1
CD 14: 38/60, 50/48, R+6
CD 15: 36/61, 42/55, R+11
CD 16: 43/56, 50/48, R+4
CD 17: 53/45, 60/38, D+6
CD 18: 37/61, 44/54, R+10

[Miles]

Ahhh...I'm sorry moun.

I think I was just about to lose power in the hurricane last week when I posted that; I sent Krazen a PM asking about the IL numbers and just hastily copied the ones he gave me without checking the source.

[Miles]

Miles to you have the exact numbers for New Mexico and/or West Virginia?

Both of those maps are more or less unchanged from their old iterations.  

In WV they only moved Mason county from CD2 to CD3. The NM districts were also pretty much intact. According to DKE's distribution chart, CD1 and CD3 keep virtually 100% of their old voters while CD2 likewise retains 96.5% of its current electorate.

So, I just pulled the 2004 numbers from the Swing State Project's Pres-by-CD chart for the old districts.

[Miles]

If anyone is interested in breaking down the numbers for Georgia, I just dug up precinct-level results for 2004 from the SoS.

[Miles]

I crunched the numbers for Louisiana:



CDs 2, 4, 5 all stayed remarkably stagnant from 2004 to 2008, with Obama and Kerry performing within a point or two of eachother.

The most salient swings against Obama were in Cajunland (CD3) and in the suburban New Orleans CD1, neither of which surprise me. CD3 swung 7.5 points against Obama, going from 60.5/38 Bush to 64/34 McCain. CD1 was similar, moving 8 points towards McCain; it shifted from 69/30 Bush to 73/25 McCain.

Other than that, CD6 also saw a noticeable Republican swing of 5.5 points; in 2004, it was 65/34 Bush but increased to 67.5/31 McCain in 2008.

[Miles]

I added a few states that were relatively unchanged after redistricting:



And I started a 2004-2008 swing map:

[Miles]

Great find! I'll update the map soon.

[Miles]

Here's the holy grail for this thread. The Cook Political Report calculated the 2004/2008 PVI for every new district.

[Miles]

Here's what I've done so far from that report. More to come.

[Miles]

And here we are.

Bush/Kerry 2004 by 2012 CDs:




Swing:



34 districts swung towards McCain; pretty much they're all where you expect they would be.

Also, 5 districts didn't experience a statistically significant swing either way [Barber (AZ), Wasserman-Schultz (FL), McCarthy (NY), Keating (MA), Tierney (MA)].

A trend map is in the works.

[Miles]

Nice! Lots of interesting stuff on the swing map in particular that.

WI doesn't look right, though - pretty sure WI-8 (the Green Bay district) had the largest swing.

Yeah, you're right. I'll fix it.

[Miles]

Smid, I really like how that map came out! You did a good job of integrating the smaller districts.

[Miles]

Biggest swings appear to be the 3 districts around Indianapolis and TX-34.

And HI

Good job Smid. I was going to make a trend map, but you've gotten that knocked out for me!