EPIC/MRA: Obama Narrowly Leads in Michigan

[tmthforu94]

http://www.freep.com/article/20120830/NEWS15/120830063/Romney-shown-closing-gap-Obama-latest-Michigan-poll

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[tmthforu94]

I think there last poll in July had Obama up by 6, but I'm not 100% on that.

[tmthforu94]

^^^, it was 6%.

Database Entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620120828055

[LiberalJunkie]

Obama should win this by about 4%-6%

[RogueBeaver]

What Silver and LiberalJunkie said.

[J. J.]

I think we will see tightening in MI.  I would still give it to Obama, but I think Romney is more likely to win MI than PA.

[morgieb]

Michigan-only pollsters have been fairly pessimistic towards Dems, so I'd take this with a grain of salt.

[J. J.]

Michigan-only pollsters have been fairly pessimistic towards Dems, so I'd take this with a grain of salt.

All of them? 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Michigan-only pollsters have been fairly pessimistic towards Dems, so I'd take this with a grain of salt.

All of them? 

Back in June, Rasmussen had the race at D+8 while  EPIC/MRA had it at R+1 and Mitchell/Detroit News had it at D+1.  When you are showing the race as being far more favorable to the Republicans than Scotty does, it sorta leads one to suspect that the in-state pollsters have a largish pro-Republican house effect.  Of course, it is possible they are the ones who are getting it right and that the multistate pollsters are missing something, but I doubt it.

[User157088589849]

Michigan-only pollsters have been fairly pessimistic towards Dems, so I'd take this with a grain of salt.

All of them? 

Back in June, Rasmussen had the race at D+8 while  EPIC/MRA had it at R+1 and Mitchell/Detroit News had it at D+1.  When you are showing the race as being far more favorable to the Republicans than Scotty does, it sorta leads one to suspect that the in-state pollsters have a largish pro-Republican house effect.  Of course, it is possible they are the ones who are getting it right and that the multistate pollsters are missing something, but I doubt it.

Agreed michigan pollsters have sampling problems. one poll out had romney getting 26% of the black vote. the michigan pollsters rarely poll 12% of the black vote like the national firms.

[Umengus]

Michigan-only pollsters have been fairly pessimistic towards Dems, so I'd take this with a grain of salt.

All of them?  

Back in June, Rasmussen had the race at D+8 while  EPIC/MRA had it at R+1 and Mitchell/Detroit News had it at D+1.  When you are showing the race as being far more favorable to the Republicans than Scotty does, it sorta leads one to suspect that the in-state pollsters have a largish pro-Republican house effect.  Of course, it is possible they are the ones who are getting it right and that the multistate pollsters are missing something, but I doubt it.

Ras is not the pollster with the most friendly romney results: cfr missouri where his last poll showed obama leading. cfr his national tracking poll too.

and ex-daily kos Nate silver can shut up now...

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Double it, and I'll agree with it.