NC, Elon University: Romney up 4

[krazen1211]

http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/09/02/2312716/new-nc-poll-gives-romney-small.html

Romney 47
Obama 43




Given that the NC polling average is Romney + 1, that is a very splendid piece of news.

[J. J.]

If this wasn't a uni poll, I'd be cheering.

[MorningInAmerica]

the poll shows Romney leading Obama on who would do better for the economy by a 13 point margin, 52-39%.

[pa2011]

Can't believe R's are cheering a 4 point Romney lead in North Carolina, in a poll taken directly after the GOP convention.  You do know if Romney is even remotely competing for North Carolina, he's losing. BTW: new PPP poll, post convention, finds Obama up 1 in Florida -- same margin as a PPP poll taken before the RNC. No Bounce in Sunshine State.

[pa2011]

New PPP poll of North Carolina, just being released now, shows a tie 48 to 48. No link yet. Taken together, Romney probably up 2 points, post convention.  Looks like we will have to wait another two or three weeks before we see if Romney has North Carolina locked down. If not, bad, bad sign for him.

[fezzyfestoon]

Woop woop, having gone there and thus following their polls religiously during 2008 and beyond, I can tell you they're among the very best NC pollers. Not so much out of state though.

[J. J.]

Woop woop, having gone there and thus following their polls religiously during 2008 and beyond, I can tell you they're among the very best NC pollers. Not so much out of state though.

Interesting.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Can't believe R's are cheering a 4 point Romney lead in North Carolina, in a poll taken directly after the GOP convention.  You do know if Romney is even remotely competing for North Carolina, he's losing. BTW: new PPP poll, post convention, finds Obama up 1 in Florida -- same margin as a PPP poll taken before the RNC. No Bounce in Sunshine State.

     North Carolina has been trending towards the Democrats for a while now, what with the growth of the Research Triangle. It's hard to tell how exactly it would fall in a 50/50 federal election at this point.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Can't believe R's are cheering a 4 point Romney lead in North Carolina, in a poll taken directly after the GOP convention.  You do know if Romney is even remotely competing for North Carolina, he's losing. BTW: new PPP poll, post convention, finds Obama up 1 in Florida -- same margin as a PPP poll taken before the RNC. No Bounce in Sunshine State.

     North Carolina has been trending towards the Democrats for a while now, what with the growth of the Research Triangle. It's hard to tell how exactly it would fall in a 50/50 federal election at this point.

This.  IMO, a completely tied electorate would show a 5-6 pt lead in NC for the Republican candidate, so +4 is right there with the current national polls.  I'm inclined to believe this over the other two NC polls that came out today.  YET, the other two polls showing a tied race lead me to believe that if this election were held at this very moment, Obama wins by .5-1 pts in the overall US popular vote. 

In all honestly, Romney has to capture a full 1pt lead in the popular vote to win this thing, basically because he needs Ohio, and Ohio is going to be +1.0 for Obama this year.  I can almost guarantee that.  If Romney even goes to 1.25 above Obama in the EV, it's his. (This is apparent because of the intrinsic Dem advantage that has developed in the EC)  What if we had two candidates in the last four elections win the popular vote but lose in the EC?  Mind you, I'm actually in favor of the EC for a lot of reasons (plus it makes this stuff all the more fun ; ). 

[Minnesota Mike]

Sample is to white. 77% white compared to 72% white in 2008 exits.

Crosstabs

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/Elon%20Poll%20full%20data%209_3_12.pdf

[J. J.]

Sample is to white. 77% white compared to 72% white in 2008 exits.

Crosstabs

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/Elon%20Poll%20full%20data%209_3_12.pdf

Possibly not.  Slightly lower turnout.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Sample is to white. 77% white compared to 72% white in 2008 exits.

Crosstabs

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/Elon%20Poll%20full%20data%209_3_12.pdf

Possibly not.  Slightly lower turnout.

Slightly?
Assuming white turnout is the same, a change from 72% white to 77% white means a 23% decrease in non-white turnout.

[Lief 🗽]

Black voters are one of the most enthusiastic voting groups in the country. I doubt their turnout will be that dramatically lower.