US With British Parties

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Before Idaho and Utah, here's an update of the No USIP map, along with some others:

For the historical maps in this post, green = SRL, except in NM, where green = SUP

1950:

1951:

1955:

1964:

EDITS: Added 1964 map, fixed No USIP map

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Idaho

Nicknamed the Gem State, Idaho covers an area larger than all of New England, and there is considerable doubt about the origin of its name, although it could come from one of two Native American tribes, it is either a Shoshone or Comanche word. Idaho is also known for its potatoes, wheat, processing of food and other products, and silver mining. Idaho also has rich alternative energy sources, a large Mormon population (23% in 2008), and gets its nickname from the wide variety of gemstones found in the state.

Panhandle

Idaho’s ten northernmost counties form the Panhandle, largely a SRL/Labor voting area until 1964, strongly supporting Labor or the NF until the mid-1970s, and retaining a higher than average Labor vote than the remainder of the state to this day, with the exception of Blaine County in the south. The strength of racist parties in this part of Idaho continues to this day, the ANP almost always outpoll the Lib Dems up here, and retain some councillors in the area.

Idaho’s Panhandle voted Tory from 1979-2001, although voted for USIP in 2005 and 2010. Labor still retain a decent base vote here to this day, never dipping below 25%, even in good years for the Tories/USIP.

Eastern Idaho

The part of Idaho with the highest percentage of Mormons, Eastern Idaho is largely a Tory-voting area, with either Labor, USIP or the Lib Dems in a distant second, depending on the county. USIP would do okay here, but nowhere near as well as in other parts of the state, as Mormons, barring fundamentalist Mormons, aren’t that conservative socially, so the right of the Tory party would be a good fit. Most Mormons, particularly south of the border in Utah, would likely see USIP as a largely Southern, Baptist, and evangelical party, despite their strong results in the Great Plains.

Idaho Falls, a hub for healthcare and business in this region of the state, votes Tory generally, although has voted for the Liberals and Lib Dems in the past, notably in both 1974 elections and 1997. Pocatello, a university city, provides the Lib Dems with their best result in Idaho, although the Tories show a good second.

Central Idaho

Blaine County, home to the Sun Valley ski resort, is a Lib Dem enclave surrounded by strong Tory and USIP areas, the Tories, Labor and USIP finish 2nd, 3rd and 4th in Blaine County.

The remainder of Central Idaho is very strong for the Tories and USIP, USIP strongest in agricultural areas, to the south of Blaine County. Central Idaho north of Blaine County is still good for USIP, but the Tories do somewhat better.

Boise and SW Idaho

Idaho’s capital and largest city, and the 3rd largest city in the Pacific Northwest behind Seattle and Portland. Boise has emerged as a technology hub over the past two decades, and is the second most affluent part of the state behind Blaine County. The Tories would have won here in 2010, against a strong Lib Dem surge. Suburban Boise is largely a stronghold for the Tory, the USIP vote rising the further you move from Boise. Labor poll third in Boise, having being overtaken by the Liberals in the 1983 election.

The remainder of SW Idaho votes in a similar manner to Central Idaho, USIP having surpassed the Tories in 2010.

While Labor haven’t been a contender in Idaho for many years now, the Tories’ once-dominant grip on Idaho has been threatened by USIP since 2005, and USIP almost won Idaho in 2010, the Tories hanging on thanks to largely holding on Boise and its suburbs. USIP are likely to win in 2015 though, with the decline of the Tory vote.

Here’s how Idaho would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor, partially thanks to the Panhandle’s strong support for the SRL.
1950: Labor, although the Conservatives were now within 3 points.
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor, thanks to a strong NF vote.
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

Utah

Perhaps best known for being the headquarters of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, of which the vast majority of members identify as Mormons, Utah has the highest birth rate and youngest population in the US. 63% of Utahans identify as Mormons, and the religion continues to be a strong influence on the state’s culture. Utah is named after the Ute tribe, meaning “people of the mountains” in their language. Religion/culture aside, Utah is also known for its deserts, mountains and forests alike, it is the only state that has some national forest in each county.

Salt Lake City

Utah’s capital and largest city by far, and although it contains the headquarters of the LDS church, Mormons are no longer a majority here. Salt Lake City in recent years has experienced significant growth, particularly Latino growth, and has always been a major business hub in the state, indeed, in 2006, the United Potato Growers of America moved here from Idaho. Salt Lake City also has a significant gay and student population.

As a result, Labor poll fairly strongly in Salt Lake City, although the Lib Dems and Tories are the two dominant parties in Salt Lake City politics, and the city is very much a three-way contest like the London seat of Hampstead & Kilburn was in 2010. 2010 saw the Lib Dems hold on to Salt Lake City itself, after gaining it in 2005. Historically, Salt Lake City has voted Tory, although the Lib Dems, and before them, the Liberals, have always held a base here, partially thanks to the university and educated, affluent nature of the population.

The suburbs of Salt Lake City are strong Tory bastions, with the Lib Dems by and large the dominant left wing party. Overall, the Salt Lake City metropolitan area, not counting the Ogden area, voted Tory by a fairly strong margin, around the high 50s, with the Lib Dems taking a large majority of the left wing vote, and Labor in a firm third, ahead of the Greens, USIP and the ANP.

Remainder of the Wasatch Front

The Wasatch Front also contains Utah’s second and third cities, Ogden and Provo. Ogden is often counted as a part of the Greater Salt Lake City area, and was the first permanent settlement in the state, becoming an important railway junction by the 1870s. The Odgen area contains some of Utah’s wealthiest counties, and is solidly Tory, hardly dipping below 65%.

Provo, Utah’s third city, is a significant shooting range, security, retail and film production centre, and is even more Tory voting than Ogden, despite being less affluent.

Northern Utah

Northern parts of Utah to the west of the Wasatch Front are very strong for the Tories, and provided the Tories with some of their best results in the country in 2010, with the Lib Dems far, far behind in second place, and Labor virtually non-existent. USIP wouldn’t do too well here, nor in other rural areas of Utah, for reasons I mentioned in Idaho’s post. USIP wouldn’t do too well at lower levels of government in Utah either.

Eastern Utah

Containing mining areas, Eastern Utah strongly votes Tory, but Labor come second here, on the back of these mining areas. Labor used to perform much stronger here, particularly before the 1980s.

Southern Utah

Again, a very solid Tory area, not much else to say here.

Utah has been a staunchly Conservative state since its acceptance into the United States, and should remain so in the future, barring a seismic change in demographics and/or party platforms. The Liberals and Liberal Democrats have done well here though, notably in February 1974 and 1997.

Here’s how Utah would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Conservative
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Conservative
2001: Conservative
2005: Conservative
2010: Conservative

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP

NOTE: Despite using different parties, New Mexico and Arizona will only use green if the SUP/NM wins either state, otherwise:
Red – SDLP
Blue – DUP
Yellow – Alliance

Race so far:
Labor: 122
Conservative: 223
Liberal Democrat: 26
USIP: 64
DUP: 5

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17
New Mexico: 37-10- 35 -2-16
Colorado: 12-37-44
Wyoming: 7-71-15-5
Montana: 11-57-26
Idaho: 6-38-18-37
Utah: 5-78-15

Arizona and Nevada will be up by the end of the month.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Arizona

The last contiguous state to be admitted to the Union, Arizona is home to the Grand Canyon and its national park, and one quarter of its land is home to the Navajo Nation, amongst other Native American reservations. Arizona also has a large number of national parks, forests and monuments, and is named from the O’odham name
ali sonak, via the Spanish name Arizonac. A good portion of the state is desert, although northern parts have a fair amount of forest.

Phoenix

Arizona’s capital and largest city, Phoenix is one of the largest cities in the US by area, and 6th largest by population, also the most populous state capital in the country. Phoenix is also noted for its political culture, being home to Barry Goldwater and John McCain amongst others.

Phoenix, the wealthiest city in Arizona, itself is home to no fewer than four Fortune 500 companies, including electronics company Avnet, and Intel has a large site in the city. Phoenix city itself is likely a tight contest between the SDLP, the Alliance and the DUP, and the SDLP narrowly held onto central Phoenix in 2010. Generally, the further you move away from central Phoenix, the lower the SDLP vote, and the higher the right vote, which is DUP in more affluent suburbs and SUP in less affluent suburbs. The Alliance has a fairly solid vote throughout, although it is higher in the city and inner suburbs, and is lower in outer suburbs.

The remainder of the metropolitan area, largely consisting of exurbs and rural communities in Maricopa and Pinal Counties, is dominated by the SUP, and helped them win the state in 2010. In these parts, the SDLP outpoll the Alliance significantly, and the DUP don’t do too well here either.

Tucson

Arizona’s second city, Tucson is stronger for the SDLP than Phoenix, particularly in the heavily Latino and Native American dominated southern parts of the city. Economically, Tucson is very much a military and university city, and other parts of Tucson, particularly its centre, are good for the Alliance, although the SDLP do well, but not as well as in the south. Suburban Tucson is largely an SUP area, historically voting DUP, although the SUP’s recent rise in more urbanized parts of Arizona in recent years has helped them here.

Southern Arizona

Rural areas in the west of Pima County, far away from the Tucson area, would largely be SUP-SDLP areas, the latter winning in 2010, with scant DUP and NM support. Santa Cruz County, directly to the south of Tucson, is the best area for Nostros Mismos in either Arizona or New Mexico, although more settled Latinos and whites prefer the SDLP, DUP or SUP.

Areas in the southeastern corner of the state tend to support the SUP quite strongly, with the SDLP in second and the DUP in third, the DUP doing well amongst right-leaning Latinos.

West Coast

Named for its western border being the Colorado River, Arizona’s West Coast stretches across the entire western border of the state, and generally votes for the SUP, although the DUP, SDLP and even NM become stronger the further you move towards the Mexican border, the SDLP won Yuma County, thanks to strong Latino support, although the combined right vote was more than the combined left vote.

North Central Arizona

For the purpose of this assessment, Yavapai and Gila Counties will be used for this region, although this region, which is largely the Arizona transition zone between the Colorado Plateau and the Basin and Range region, also contains parts of the counties to the east and southeast of Gila County.

Both counties vote SUP, with the main opposition being the SDLP, and the DUP polling a distant third.

Northern Arizona

Arizona’s portion of the Colorado Plateau, this part of the state has a high Native American population, and largely votes SDLP, especially in Apache County. The main right wing party would be the SUP out this way.

Arizona has generally been a stronghold for the SUP, only going SDLP at the 1966 and 1997 landslides. While the DUP have done well here, particularly in the 1980s, they have never been a serious contender for the state, and the SDLP are much stronger nowadays than they were prior to the 1990s, and Arizona may fall in 2015, depending on the splitting of the vote and turnout. Historically, if it used the nationwide parties, Arizona would have been a southwestern stronghold for racist parties, although it would have gone Tory in 1955 and 1959.

Here’s how Arizona would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: SUP/SRL
1950: SUP/SRL
1951: SUP/SRL
1955: SUP/Conservative
1959: SUP/Conservative
1964: SUP/NF
1966: SDLP/Labor
1970: SUP/Conservative
February 1974: SUP/Conservative
October 1974: SUP/Conservative
1979: SUP/Conservative
1983: SUP/Conservative
1987: SUP/Conservative
1992: SUP/Conservative, although the SDLP/Labor were close to winning.
1997: SDLP/Labor
2001: SUP/Conservative
2005: SUP/Conservative
2010: SUP/USIP

Nevada

Nicknamed the Silver State, thanks to its silver (and gold) deposits, Nevada became a state during the Civil War, and is named after the Sierra Nevada mountain range just to the west in California. Largely desert, Nevada is known for being the only US state where prostitution is legal in parts, and is also known for legalizing gambling and divorces in the 1930s, helping to make the state a popular tourist attraction, particularly Las Vegas.

Nevada’s voting patterns are broken down by its three cities, followed by the state’s rural areas.

Las Vegas

By far Nevada’s largest city, the Greater Las Vegas area, which since 2003, correlates with Clark County, is home to over two thirds of the state’s population.

Las Vegas itself is renowned or shunned, depending on your view, for its vast array of casinos, entertainment, and hotels, and strongly votes Labor, last voting Tory in 1987. The Lib Dems would be a factor in areas near the College of Southern Nevada, but the growth of Las Vegas’ Latino community, along with the changes in the parties, has ensured Las Vegas will vote Labor for the foreseeable future.

Las Vegas’ suburbs would generally be Labor-Tory swing areas or Tory areas, although again, they have drifted to Labor over the past 20 years, despite voting Tory as a whole in 2010. Labor would have won Clark County as a whole in 2010, having held it since 1992.

Reno

Known as “The Biggest Little City in the World”, Reno is Nevada’s second city, and was the gambling capital of the USA prior to the late 1950s, when it was taken over by Las Vegas. Reno is home to a number of corporate headquarters, including International Game Technology, a slot machine manufacturer.

In line with the state’s leftward trend, Reno has trended away from the Tories, towards Labor and the Lib Dems, over the past twenty years, and Labor managed to win Reno in a 3-way split in 2005 and 2010, after winning more comfortably against the Tories in 1997 and 2001.

Reno’s metropolitan area, or Lyon and Storey Counties, in addition to the remainder of Washoe County, is better for the Tories, but has still trended away from them.

Carson City and Douglas County

Nevada’s capital, Carson City is a consolidated municipality, and was founded as a stopover for emigrants on their way to California. Aside from usual services found in a state capital, Carson City was historically a hub for the Virginia and Truckee Railroad, and became a city after the silver strike known as the Comstock Lode. Carson City historically voted Tory, but is now a swing city, the Tories winning in 2005 and 2010 thanks to vote splitting from Labor and the Lib Dems.

Douglas County, which has more in common with the Greater Sacramento area over the border in California, is just to the south of Carson City, and is a very affluent area, the most affluent in the state. As a result, it is a Tory-Lib Dem area, the former winning in 2010, after clawing it back from the Lib Dems in 2005.

Rural Nevada

Covering all of the state that isn’t Clark, Washoe, Carson City, Lyon, Storey or Douglas Counties, rural areas of Nevada are strong for the Tories overall, although Labor put up a decent contest in the likes of Mineral County, which has a significant Native American population. Nye County, while being fairly reliable for the Tories, has a decent size Labor vote in Pahrump, a large town close to Clark County. The remainder of this region is very strong for the Tories, and the Lib Dems wouldn’t do too well here, neither would USIP.

Nevada has generally been a strong Tory state in the past, although Labor have always had a base here, as evidenced by their wins in 1945, 1964 and 1966. Since 1997, Labor has been much stronger here, although they narrowly lost to the Tories in 2010.

Here’s how Nevada would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor, helping that party win nationwide.
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Labor
2001: Labor
2005: Labor
2010: Conservative

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP
AZ - SUP

NOTE: Despite using different parties, New Mexico and Arizona will only use green if the SUP/NM wins either state, otherwise:
Red – SDLP
Blue – DUP
Yellow – Alliance

Race so far:
Labor: 122
Conservative: 229
Liberal Democrat: 26
USIP: 64
DUP : 5
SUP: 11

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17
New Mexico: 37-10- 35 -2-16
Colorado: 12-37-44
Wyoming: 7-71-15-5
Montana: 11-57-26
Idaho: 6-38-18-37
Utah: 5-78-15
Arizona: 7-46- 33 -4-10
Nevada: 44-47-8

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

While I intend to finish this, California and subsequent states will not be posted until the end of next month at the earliest, for a couple of reasons:

1. California is a large state in terms of area and population, and will take a long time to do.
2. I have other commitments, mainly university work, to do. I'll still be on the forum, I just won't be posting any more updates to this for a while.

Feedback and comments are very welcome, and thank you all once again for your interest!

[Goldwater]

I never realized that Arizona was so racist.

Also, would Barry Goldwater have been a member of the SUP or the DUP? The reason I'm curious should be obvious.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I never realized that Arizona was so racist.

Also, would Barry Goldwater have been a member of the SUP or the DUP? The reason I'm curious should be obvious.

Barry Goldwater would have likely been on the DUP's right, largely because the SUP of the era would have been perceived as a Dixiecrat party, focusing mor eon social issues. At the national level, he would have definitely been a Tory.

[Goldwater]

I never realized that Arizona was so racist.

Also, would Barry Goldwater have been a member of the SUP or the DUP? The reason I'm curious should be obvious.

Barry Goldwater would have likely been on the DUP's right, largely because the SUP of the era would have been perceived as a Dixiecrat party, focusing mor eon social issues. At the national level, he would have definitely been a Tory.

Yeah, that makes sense. I was thinking he might be too far to the right economically to fit into the mainstream DUP, but I suppose the SUP wouldn't be any further to the right economically. Although even if he was part of the SUP, I would expect him to be one of the few SUP/Tory voters.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

And now.... California!!!!!

California

Home to one-eighth of all Americans, California is also the third largest state by area, and began as a northern province of Mexico, before that being Spanish territory. Its geography and inhabitants are both very diverse, having the largest minority population in the country with deserts, forests, mountains, agricultural areas all found in the state. Along with containing both the highest (Mount Whitney) and lowest (Death Valley) points in the contiguous US, California is also known for its earthquakes, gold rushes back in the mid-19th century, fruit and vegetables, the entertainment industry, the massive technological hub Silicon Valley, and attractive climate.

As California is a large, diverse and populous state, I have split the state into two, then analysing the state by its sub-regions:

Northern California

Bounded on the south by Monterey, Kings, Tulare and Inyo Counties, Northern California contains the cities of Fresno, Sacramento, and the Bay Area, which includes San Francisco and Oakland. Significant parts of California’s mountains and forests are also located in this region.

Upstate California

Far northern counties of California that do not have a coastline were once home to a prominent timber industry, that would have largely voted Labor, particularly in 1945 and 1966. Nowadays, Upstate California is a solid Tory area, even in 1997, and is the only part of California where USIP have a chance of electing councillors.

North Coast

The three western counties that comprise California’s north coast, namely Del Norte, Humboldt and Mendocino, are largely a rural Labor area, although the Greens and Lib Dems poll strongly around here as well. The Greens have a good chance of getting an MP elected here. In the past, this area voted Tory 1979-1992, although since 1997, had a big swing to the left and hasn’t looked back, although the Tories still come in third or second, depending on the election. Also voted for the Liberals in both 1974 elections.

Sierra Nevada

To the south of the state’s far north, and to the east of the central valleys, lie the Sierra Nevada mountains. Thinly populated, this area would have largely voted Tory historically, although the Lib Dems and Labor have gained ground here, much like they have in similar areas in Colorado.

Sacramento Valley

Generally a Tory area, the Sacramento Valley, largely a rural agricultural area, has good areas for Labor and the Lib Dems as well, particularly on its northern fringes.

Sacramento

California’s capital and 6th largest city, Sacramento was a major terminus for the telegraph, the Pony Express, wagon trains and the First Transcontinental Railroad, amongst others. Cited by Time Magazine as America’s most racially integrated city in 2002, and aside from usual state capital services, is noted for its array of higher education institutions, notably Sacramento State, and its diverse culture, varying from Old Sacramento, to its theatres, to its food scene.

Sacramento city would vote Labor, although the Lib Dems gave them a strong challenge in 2010, ala Newport East or Kingston upon Hull North. The Greens have a good base here, but they are far behind the Tories in fourth. Sacramento’s suburbs would likely be Tory and Lib Dem areas, Labor putting up a good show in poorer areas.

Fresno

Located in the centre of the San Joaquin Valley, Fresno is well known for its Armenian population, the first Armenians coming in 1881 from the Ottoman Empire. Fresno largely serves as the economic hub for the San Joaquin Valley, a largely agricultural area, containing two casinos. Fresno itself, with a large Latino population, strongly votes Labor, the Lib Dems and Greens aren’t really a presence here. Other areas, such as suburban and rural areas, are better for the Tories, although Labor won Fresno County 1997-2005, before losing it in 2010.

Madera, immediately to Fresno’s north, is another heavily Labor-voting city, and looks to remain that way for the foreseeable future, although whites here tend to vote for the Tories or ANP, Labor winning thanks to high Latino support. The rest of Madera County is largely Tory voting.

San Joaquin Valley

The remainder of San Joaquin Valley, the parts that aren’t in Fresno or Madera Counties, is largely a rural, agricultural area, although the northern parts are more populous than the south. Largely a Labor-Tory swing area, particularly the former since 1992, and was held by Labor in 2010, although the Tories have their strongholds, notably Kern County. The Lib Dems and Greens generally don’t do well here.

San Francisco Bay Area

More commonly known as the Bay Area, this part of California contains the cities of San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, and comprises the 9 counties that border San Francisco Bay, and can be broken down into central San Francisco, and the different sections of the Bay (East, North and South).

San Francisco

San Francisco itself, known for the Golden Gate Bridge, cable cars, the old Alcatraz prison, rolling hills, and America’s first Chinatown. It is California’s fourth largest and most densely populated city, when its suburbs are taken into account.

San Francisco has long been a centre for cultural progressivism, along with being the major financial centre for California and the West Coast, Bank of America was founded here. San Francisco was also home to the Summer of Love in 1967, and is also home to America’s first gay village, namely The Castro.

Politically, San Francisco has long been a stronghold for Labor and the Lib Dems, and in more recent years, the Green Party. Labor’s base would largely comprise the city’s black and Latino populations, along with some poorer whites, the Lib Dems do well amongst the financial workers, and the Greens thrive amongst the gay community. The Tories come fourth here, having last won San Francisco in 1959. At the constituency level, CA-12 would be a 3-way Lib Dem-Green-Labor marginal if the US boundaries were used, although each would have at least one seat if UK-size constituencies were used. I can see Respect winning a seat here as well, although San Francisco isn’t Respect’s best area in the state.

San Mateo County, on the San Francisco Peninsula between the city of San Francisco and the South Bay, is largely suburban and affluent in nature, and strongly votes Lib Dem nowadays. In the past, San Mateo County was largely Tory voting, although it did go Liberal in 1945, 1966 and both 1974 elections.

Oakland and East Bay

The most populous region of the Bay Area, and containing Northern California’s largest port, the East Bay’s largest city is Oakland, and the region covers Alameda and Contra Costa Counties.

Oakland would have been a stronghold for militant Labor in the 1980s, one of the few areas in California and the US alike to swing to Labor in 1983. Oakland is noted for its diversity, thanks to migration from inside and outside the US. Respect would thrive amongst poor Latino and black neighbourhoods, doing better than in San Francisco, and the whites in said neighbourhoods may vote ANP. Labor continue to do well amongst all ethnicities, and the Lib Dems, Greens and Tories are largely afterthoughts in Oakland, in the case of the Tories, the best they can do is third or fourth in much of the city.

Berkeley, perhaps best known amongst younger generations for being the hometown of all three members of Green Day, is a college city, and has swayed to and fro between Labor and the Liberals/Lib Dems over the years, voting Lib Dem by large margins in 2005 and 2010, although Labor should win Berkeley in 2015 on current polling. The Greens also do well here, although are largely shadowed by Labor and the Lib Dems, and are outpolled by the Tories.

Other major cities, including Hayward, San Leandro, Concord and Fremont, tend to be weak for the Tories overall, the more affluent cities vote Lib Dem, while the less affluent vote Labor. The Tories tend to do better in the Lib Dem voting areas, and the Green vote would be quite low, compared to San Francisco and Berkeley. Respect wouldn’t do too well around here, as although much of the region is minority-majority, these cities aren’t as densely built up as San Francisco or Oakland. Generally speaking, blacks and Latinos tend to vote Labor, with scant Tory votes here and there, more so amongst Latinos. Asians lean Lib Dem or Tory, while whites are split between the three.

The only significant Tory strength in this region is the largely exurban/rural areas in the east of the region, even those would have sharply trended to the Lib Dems since the 1990s, the Tories last carrying these parts of the region in 1992.

North Bay

The least populous part of the Bay Area, the North Bay is connected to San Francisco by the Golden Gate Bridge, and is largely comprised of affluent San Francisco suburbs. Today, the region is very strong for the Lib Dems, with the Tories in second and Labor in third, although Solano County has Labor in second and the Tories in third, partly on the back of the Latino vote. Up until 1992, the North Bay area staunchly voted Tory, even in their bad years, and the Liberals/Lib Dems were the second party, Labor virtually non-existent in the area. This is somewhat similar to areas such as Twickenham and Kingston in south-west London, affluent Lib Dem areas.

San Jose and South Bay

Also known as Silicon Valley, the South Bay and the city of San Jose are home to many large technology corporations, to the extent that “Silicon Valley” is sometimes used to refer to the entire US technology sector. Amongst other companies, Apple, eBay, Google, Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Oracle, SanDisk and Western Digital all have their headquarters in the Silicon Valley.

The area is very affluent and educated, and quite diverse regarding ethnicity, in 2010, 32% of the population was Asian, and 27% Latino. Like the North Bay, Silicon Valley has transformed from a solid Tory area to a solid Lib Dem one, with the Tories in second, and Labor in a strong third, beating the Tories into second place in both 1997 and 2001.

Continued in next post

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Northern California (continued)

Central Coast

Straddling both Northern and Southern California alike, the Central Coast in Northern California covers Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Benito Counties. Santa Cruz County is anchored by the city of the same name, and is another example of a Tory voting area, although not as strong as either the North or South Bay regions, drifting to the Lib Dems. Labor would finish second here, as this area isn’t as affluent.

Monterey and San Benito Counties are also similar in affluence to Santa Cruz, although significantly more Latino in their ethnic composition, and less college graduates live around here. Both were Tory voting, Labor landslides excepted, until 1992, when Labor won the area, and the area has stayed with the left ever since, although the Tories still have a decent base here, and the Lib Dem vote hasn’t increased as much as in the Bay Area or Santa Cruz.

Southern California

From the Mexican border, Southern California or SoCal covers the southern parts of the state, as far north as the aforementioned boundary line mentioned in the Northern California section (southern edge of Monterey, Kings, Tulare and Inyo Counties). This region notably contains the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego.

Central Coast (continued, includes Kern County)

Continuing southwards along the Central Coast are San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties. San Luis Obispo County, for this part of California at least, is quite white and not that densely populated. It would have voted Tory in 2010, after voting Labor 1997-2005, and Tory before that except 1945 and 1966. The Tory vote rises the further you move away from the coast.

Santa Barbara County, like its northern counterpart, voted Tory until 1997, barring 1945 and 1966. It would not have been picked up by the Tories in 2010 though, instead, Labor would have won it in 1997 and 2001, before being gained by the Lib Dems in 2005, on the back of anti-Iraq war sentiment, and holding it in 2010. The strong presence of the University of California here, helped buoy the Lib Dems into their 2005 victory, but will likely throw the county back into Labor’s hands in 2015, the Green vote is expected to increase as well, currently coming a strong fourth behind the Lib Dems, Labor and the Tories.

Kern County, while not being a part of the Central Coast, is directly to the east of this region, is dominated by the agriculture, oil, and mining industries, and strongly votes Tory, with Labor in second. Despite Latinos forming a plurality of the county’s population, a significant portion are illegal immigrants, and as a result, can’t vote. Latinos that can vote in this area largely vote Labor though, and the Lib Dems are almost absent here.

Greater Los Angeles

The United States’ 2nd most populous metropolitan area, and California’s largest, Greater Los Angeles is home to nearly 13 million residents, and is home to the US headquarters of nearly all the major Asian car manufacturers, barring Nissan and Subaru. Los Angeles, nicknamed the City of Angels, has also been nicknamed the Entertainment Capital of the World, home to Hollywood, Paramount, Walt Disney, 20th Century Fox, Universal, and other major movie and TV studios.

Los Angeles County has been split into two, mainly along Highway 210, and other areas have been grouped into Inland Empire, Orange County and Ventura County.

Los Angeles and inner suburbs

Inner Los Angeles is one of the most diverse cities in the entire US, the entire LA area is also the most diverse out of all major American cities. Downtown LA is very good for Labor, Respect, the Lib Dems and the Greens in that order, the Tories never being a serious contest here. Hollywood’s residential area is also quite similar in demographics and voting habits.

LA’s Eastside is home to some of the most Latino neighbourhoods in the city, and Labor and Respect poll highly accordingly. Further to the east, and out of “inner-city” areas, i.e. east of the 605, are more suburban areas, with a much higher Tory vote than central or inner eastern areas, although Labor would have held these areas in 2010, thanks to changing demographics, and despite a rising Lib Dem vote.

Beverly Hills, known for being home to many movie stars, and a very affluent neighbourhood, was staunchly Tory in the past, although is now Lib Dem with the Tories in second. Bel Air, to Beverly Hills’ north, still votes Tory though. Santa Monica, by the sea, used to strongly vote Tory, but strongly votes Lib Dem nowadays.

Looking south of central LA, to some of LA’s poorest and most ethnically diverse suburbs, Labor and Respect are the dominant parties here, the latter making Labor competitive here for the first time since the party was founded. Respect would likely hold a constituency or two at the parliamentary level too. Other parties? 5% for the Tories is an excellent result here.

To LA’s northwest, and south/southwest of the Crescenta and Antelope Valleys, lie a band of suburbs from Burbank in the east to West Hills in the west. This area is generally affluent, and is another old Tory voting area of LA that has shifted to the Lib Dems over the past 25 years, Labor beating the Tories into third in 1997.

Ventura County

Situated to the west of Los Angeles County, Ventura County is largely Los Angeles suburbia. Traditionally, Ventura County had a Tory lean, going Labor in 1945, 1964 and 1966 prior to 1997. Changing demographics, particularly an increasing Latino population, coupled with Labor’s shift to the centre, have made Ventura County more Labor-leaning than it was, although the Tories narrowly won it in 2010, partially thanks to a Lib Dem surge.

Crescenta and Antelope Valleys

Northern parts of Los Angeles County, generally north of Highway 210, and largely covered in national parks, form the Crescenta and Antelope Valleys, and are dominated by the cities of Lancaster, Palmdale, Santa Clarita and Glendale. The Green Party would probably have a substantial vote close to the national parks, but this area is by and large a Labor-Tory battleground, with the Tories winning narrowly in 2010, even though Latinos are strongly Labor here, as they are in much of the remainder of California.

Orange County

Lying to the southeast of Los Angeles County, Orange County is California’s 6th largest county by population. Orange County is very much suburban in nature, was named after its past as an orange growing region, and is known for its affluence and conservatism alike.

There is little to no doubt that Orange County is a Tory stronghold, especially prior to 1997. Since the dawn of the 1990s though, the Tories’ grip on the OC has gone from very strong to merely strong. This can be attributed to a number of factors:
1. The increasing ethnic diversity, particularly the Latino and Asian populations.
2. The rise of the Lib Dems in wealthier areas, although the wealthiest areas in the OC, such as Yorba Linda, and Newport Beach, the former being birthplace of Richard Nixon, continue to be strong Tory with the Lib Dems in a distant second, and the Tories still do better than the Lib Dems in general.
3. Labor’s shift away from their old platform in the 1990s, making themselves more appealing to suburbanites.

Orange County’s largest city, Anaheim, is home to Disneyland, is perhaps one of the best examples of changing demographics in Orange County – what was formerly a very white and very Tory-voting city is now Labor-leaning and quite Latino. Anaheim is Labor’s best area in the OC, with the Tories not too far behind.

Orange County would continue to vote Tory, even in 1997, although even their 2010 result wasn’t as strong as it was in weak Tory years of the past, such as 1966. Labor would have come second in 1997 and 2001, the Lib Dems beating them into third place in 2005 and 2010.

General summary of strongholds regarding the parties in OC:
Tories – Retirees, the wealthy, Asians that escaped communism, beachside and hills areas.
Labor – Anaheim, Santa Ana, a majority of Latinos, poorer people in general, some residual middle-class support from the New Labor years.
Lib Dems – Irvine, moderately affluent and well-educated whites, a fair number of Asians.

Inland Empire

Extending from eastern areas of Greater LA to the border with Arizona and Nevada, the Inland Empire covers Paradise County and San Bernardino County. The area ranges from LA suburbs in the west to rural areas in the east of the region. Most people live in the western portions of the two counties.

The region is known for being a significant shipping hub, even after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and despite the extremely high foreclosure rate, remains a high growth area. Generally, the eastern, rural parts of the area are strongly Tory with Labor in a distant second, while the more built up, suburban portions of the area are more complex. While Labor would do reasonably well amongst Latinos, blacks and some whites, the majority of the white vote here is split between the Tories, and in poorer communities, the ANP, although mainly the former. The area is largely working to middle class, although not too affluent or educated, so the Lib Dems or Greens wouldn’t do very well here.

San Diego

The last city on the West Coast before entering Mexico, San Diego is California’s 2nd largest city, and economically is anchored by its port, the world’s largest naval fleet, cross-border trade with Mexico, and tourism, especially its beaches, zoo, and SeaWorld.

Inner San Diego is quite educated and affluent, but also quite progressive, it would have voted Lib Dem in 2005 and 2010, and has a sizeable Green vote. Labor would have done well here prior to 2005, Tory landslides aside. The Tories tend to get at least 20% of the vote here, but are not serious contenders in this area.

Southern suburbs of San Diego, particularly those parts along the Mexican border, are good for Labor, particularly amongst the large Latino population. This would be the worst Tory area in the city, and has always been good for Labor since their inception.

Northern suburbs of San Diego, while generally affluent, are fairly split between the Tories and Lib Dems, the former getting support from military workers, and the latter getting support from environmentalists. Would have likely had a high Liberal vote in 1974 too, although the Tories still won here in both elections that year. Labor would have done decently in 1997 and 2001 here.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

San Diego (continued)

San Diego as a whole leaned Tory in the past, although an increasing Latino population and Labor’s move rightwards in the 1990s enabled Labor to win here in 1997 and 2001, before reverting to its usual Tory status in 2005 and 2010. The Tories are nowhere near as strong as they used to be however, and San Diego could easily go Labor again come 2015.

Imperial Valley

Covering much of the border with Mexico, the Imperial Valley, part of a bi-national agricultural area, is very Labor-voting, with much of the remaining vote split between the Tories or the ANP. The county has voted Tory in the past, and the Tories continue to get a decent vote amongst Latinos, who make up the vast majority of the population, but Imperial County hasn’t voted Tory since 1987.

California as a whole was a Labor-Tory swing state from 1945-1970, becoming safer for the Tories through the 1970s, notably holding on in both 1974 elections. California’s changes became notable in 1992, when it fell to Labor for the first time since 1966. Since then, Labor have entrenched their hold on the Golden State significantly, although 2010 was the closest result here since 1992, thanks to both a Tory resurgence and a Lib Dem wave.

Here’s how California would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor, by a bare whisker
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Labor
1997: Labor, the Tories pushed down into third place.
2001: Labor
2005: Labor
2010: Labor

Updated map/vote shares in next post.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP
AZ - SUP

NOTE: Despite using different parties, New Mexico and Arizona will only use green if the SUP/NM wins either state, otherwise:
Red – SDLP
Blue – DUP
Yellow – Alliance

Race so far:
Labor: 177
Conservative: 229
Liberal Democrat: 26
USIP: 64
DUP : 5
SUP: 11

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17
New Mexico: 37-10- 35 -2-16
Colorado: 12-37-44
Wyoming: 7-71-15-5
Montana: 11-57-26
Idaho: 6-38-18-37
Utah: 5-78-15
Arizona: 7-46- 33 -4-10
Nevada: 44-47-8
California: 36-29-27-3-3

Oregon and Washington are up next.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Predicted precinct map of TN with UK parties

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Predicted precinct map of TN with UK parties

Good work! Just out of interest, how long did it take for you to make that map?

[progressive85]

This is amazing!  You must have worked really hard to come up with all of this!

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Predicted precinct map of TN with UK parties

Good work! Just out of interest, how long did it take for you to make that map?

Used DRA - about an hour.  It would be really difficult to tell where the USIP vs. Tory would break down.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

This is amazing!  You must have worked really hard to come up with all of this!

Thanks, I've been doing this since last August, and I won't stop until it's done!

Predicted precinct map of TN with UK parties

Good work! Just out of interest, how long did it take for you to make that map?

Used DRA - about an hour.  It would be really difficult to tell where the USIP vs. Tory would break down.

Good work, and there would be a fair amount of split votes, but impressive nonetheless!

[Sol]

This is great! Keep up the good work.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

This is great! Keep up the good work.

Thanks, I'm working on Oregon now, that and Washington should be up shortly.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Rounding up the lower 48, Oregon and Washington!

Oregon

Moving up the Pacific coast is the state of Oregon, which has a number of theories on how it got its name, one being a simplification of Aure il agua, another being the mis-spelling of the name of the River Ouisiconsink. Oregon has a very diverse landscape both deciduous and evergreen forests, mountains, windswept coast, waterfalls and deserts. Oregon is also known for its political polarization, for being the first state to adopt citizens’ initiative back in 1902, and is known for conducting its elections entirely by postal vote.

Portland Metropolitan Area

Oregon’s largest city by far, Portland, also known as the City of Roses, is known for its microbreweries, general progressive outlook, city planning controls, and outdoor activities. It has won numerous awards for greenness, and is an attractive destination for yuppies.

Portland city was a Labor stronghold in years gone by, thanks to its origins as a port, and later an important steel manufacturing centre. As blue collar jobs declined and white collar jobs increased, notably the technological sector, Portland has gone from strong Labor to fairly strong Lib Dem, Labor still get some support from those in the blue collar industries, and from Latino immigrants. The Green Party get good results here as well, particularly from students and young people. The Tories haven’t been prominent in Portland city for a long time, largely fading into irrelevance after the 1970s, although retaining a fairly strong core base, going no lower than the low 20s in 1997.

Moving into Portland’s suburbs, Hood River County, the most Latino county in Greater Portland, has the best Labor vote in the region, and some of their best results in the Pacific Northwest, along with some of the Lib Dems’ worst. Clackamas County, on average the wealthiest county in Greater Portland, was safe Tory until 1992, and has been a Tory-Lib Dem marginal ever since, although the Liberals won here in 1966.

West of Multnomah County lie Washington and Columbia Counties, the former being largely Portland suburbia and agricultural fields, and is an example of a relatively solid Tory area turning into a Lib Dem area, although the Tories are firmly in second. particularly with the agricultural vote. Yamhill County, to the south of the Greater Portland region, is similar, although stronger for the Tories. Columbia County is more rural in nature, and has an economy based on wood, construction and some agriculture. The Lib Dems are not much of a factor here, and Labor won here narrowly against the Tories in 2010

Overall, the shift to the Lib Dems in Portland’s suburbs has made it quite difficult for the Tories to win statewide.

Remainder of the Willamette Valley

Moving south from Portland, which also lies in the Willamette Valley, are the cities of Salem and Eugene. Salem, the state capital, aside from usual state government services, is a prominent technological and education centre, although not as much as Portland or Eugene respectively. The Lib Dems easily win majorities of the vote here, with the Tories in a solid second, and Labor in a distant third.

Eugene, the birthplace of Nike, is noted for its higher education institutes, anarchist and alternative lifestyle subcultures, natural beauty, arts, and outdoor activities. Labor would have won here up until the mid-1990s, when the Lib Dems and Greens absorbed much of their vote here, and Labor come fourth now, below the Tories. If current polling stays true, Labor should regain much of their lost vote in 2015 here, although the Greens should get some ex-Lib Dem votes too.

Southern Oregon

Medford, an important healthcare, economic and agricultural hub for Southern Oregon and Northern California alike, leans Tory with the Lib Dems in second, and Labor in third. The Lib Dems would have won here in 1997-2005, and possibly prior to this in years of Tory defeats. The remainder of Southern Oregon, particularly parts in the east of the region, is a strong Tory area.

Eastern Oregon

In this assessment, Eastern Oregon refers to all of the state east of the Cascade Ranges, the only significant city being Bend. Bend, home to a ski resort and as a gateway to nearby natural attractions, generally votes Tory, although has strong Lib Dem and Green votes, although only the former have won here. Labor, while getting a decent vote in Bend, tend to do terribly here, and much of the remainder of Eastern Oregon is a Tory stronghold, one of the best in the country.

If Eastern Oregon, particularly areas close to Idaho, was its own state, or was part of Idaho, it would likely have a strong USIP vote, and while USIP do well here, compared to the rest of the state and region, most potential USIP voters vote Tory, largely because they have a much greater change to dislodge the Lib Dems’ hold on the state.

Coastal Oregon

Largely driven economically by tourism nowadays, Coastal Oregon was once a prominent logging and fishing area, and is also popular with retirees. Logging and fishing are still prominent here, and this would be Labor’s best area in Oregon. The Tories have improved their standing here over the years, losing the area in 1997 and 2001, otherwise winning the area since 1983.

Oregon as a whole used to be a reliable Tory state, only being lost to Labor once, in 1966, but since the 1990s, has become a relatively Lib Dem state, and should remain so for the foreseeable future. Excellent results in the east and south of the state for the Tories are dwarfed by the Lib Dem vote in Portland, Salem and Eugene.

Here’s how Oregon would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Conservative
1950: Conservative
1951: Conservative
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Liberal Democrat
1997: Liberal Democrat
2001: Liberal Democrat
2005: Liberal Democrat
2010: Liberal Democrat

Washington

Named after the first President of the US, Washington state, as it is often known, is covered in coastal fjords, temperate rainforest, a flat basin and mountains. Washington has the 2nd highest number of irreligious people after Colorado, the largest Wiccan church in the country, is one of 7 states with no state income tax, one of 3 states with legal assisted suicide, and one of two states where marijuana possession is legal to a degree.

Seattle Metropolitan Area

The birthplace of Jimi Hendrix and the grunge scene of the 1990s, Seattle began life as a timber town in the 19th century, eventually being the place of an ugly conflict with Chinese workers. Some time after the timber industry went down, Seattle went through a gold rush, before becoming the headquarters of Boeing, since moved to Chicago, and Microsoft. Seattle, where a majority of citizens hold a college degree, was a good city for Labor from its founding until the 1970s-1980s, when a shift from Labor to the Liberals occurred, and has been won by the Liberals/Lib Dems at every election since 1987, after going Tory in a 3-way split in 1983. The Tories have been a distant second here since 1997.

The remainder of King County consists of Seattle suburbs, which are largely Lib Dem these days after generally being Tory until 1992 or 1997. The Asian vote as a whole has notably gone Lib Dem, although there is still a hardline anti-communist Tory vote prevalent, and the Tories generally do better in areas to the north of Seattle, Labor polling best in the southern, more ethnic suburbs. The Green Party is largely confined to areas around the University of Washington.

Pierce County, to the south of King County, is the poorer of the two counties either side of King, and has a decent Labor vote to this day, although it was Tory from 1979-1992, and mainly Labor prior to that. Today it is a 3-way Labor-Tory-Lib Dem contest. Snohomish County, to King County’s north, had a similar history to Pierce County, although is a Tory-Lib Dem swing area these days.

Bellingham and NW Washington

A small city not far from two big cities, namely Seattle and Vancouver, Canada, Bellingham is home to the US’ longest running Peace Vigil, Island County is a Labor-Tory swing area, Tory in 2010 on the back of the military vote, while San Juan County is an excellent area for the Lib Dems and Greens, Labor way behind, and the Tories polling 25-35% of the vote depending on the year.

Olympia

Washington’s capital, Olympia is a hub for both artists and musicians, and has been a significant bastion of support for the Liberals/Lib Dems since the 1970s, mainly a Labor city prior to that. The Greens poll well here too, although the Tories are still second here to the Lib Dems, and do well in other areas of Thurston County.

Southwest Washington

The city of Vancouver, which borders Portland, Oregon aside, this is quite a sparsely populated region, dominated by the Olympic National Forest in the region’s north. Vancouver, part of the Portland metropolitan area, is largely suburban in nature, and swings between the Lib Dems and Tories, staying with the former in 2010.

The remainder of the region is largely a Lib Dem-Tory contest, the Tories doing better in the region’s north and southwest, particularly on the coast, the Lib Dems in the centre of the region, particularly around Olympic National Forest. The Green Party racks up a sizeable vote in Jefferson County, and Labor do well amongst loggers.

Eastern Washington

Similar to Eastern Oregon, except a bit less Tory voting. Again, if the area was its own state or a part of Idaho, USIP would do well here.

Spokane

Starting life as a rail and shipping centre, Spokane is an important manufacturing, transport, medical, commercial, military, and entertainment hub for not only Eastern Washington, but for the Idaho Panhandle and nearby areas of Canada as well.

Spokane generally votes Tory, although has gone to both Labor and the Lib Dems in the past, notably 1945, 1966 and 1997.

Washington state is similar to Oregon, although leaned more to Labor historically than Oregon, and went to the Liberals/Lib Dems earlier than Oregon did.

Here’s how Washington would have voted from 1945 onwards:
1945: Labor
1950: Labor
1951: Labor
1955: Conservative
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor
1966: Labor
1970: Labor, quite narrowly
February 1974: Conservative, against the national trend.
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Liberal
1992: Liberal Democrat
1997: Liberal Democrat
2001: Liberal Democrat
2005: Liberal Democrat
2010: Liberal Democrat

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here’s the updated map:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS & OK – USIP
AZ - SUP

NOTE: Despite using different parties, New Mexico and Arizona will only use green if the SUP/NM wins either state, otherwise:
Red – SDLP
Blue – DUP
Yellow – Alliance

Race so far:
Labor: 177
Conservative: 229
Liberal Democrat: 45
USIP: 64
DUP : 5
SUP: 11

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17
New Mexico: 37-10- 35 -2-16
Colorado: 12-37-44
Wyoming: 7-71-15-5
Montana: 11-57-26
Idaho: 6-38-18-37
Utah: 5-78-15
Arizona: 7-46- 33 -4-10
Nevada: 44-47-8
California: 36-29-27-3-3
Oregon: 10-35-50-4
Washington: 9-34-54-2

Before the final two states, Alaska and Hawaii, there's something extra coming, don't click away!

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

As Alaska, Hawaii and DC didn't vote until 1960 in the US, and 1959 (AK/HI) or 1964 (DC) in this project, the 1945, 1950, 1951 and 1955 elections are complete, so to speak, here are the full results for each:

1945

Labor: 409
Conservative: 70
SRL: 40
Liberal: 4
SUP: 4
SDLP: 4

1950

Labor: 302
Conservative: 146
SRL: 71
Liberal: 4
SUP: 8

Revision to 1950:
SC: SRL

1951

Labor: 175
Conservative: 280
SRL: 68
SUP: 8

Revisions to 1951:
NY: Labor
SC: SRL

1955

Labor: 33
Conservative: 430
SRL: 60
SUP: 8

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Well, it's been a long and winding road, but concluding the project, Alaska and Hawaii!!!!!!

Alaska

The largest state in the US by area, and having a longer coastline than all the other states combined, Alaska as dominated by the oil, natural gas and fishing industries economically, and was formerly part of Russia until the US purchased it in 1867. Alaska has many islands, mountains, lakes, glaciers and forests, and is the location of the world’s largest wildlife refuge.

Southeast Alaska

Containing Juneau, the capital and wealthiest city in Alaska, Southeast Alaska is where most of the initial settlement, post-Alaska Purchase, occurred. Juneau, a prominent fishing and tourism hub, generally voted Labor in Alaska’s early elections as a state, then the Liberals/Lib Dems from 1970, before switching to Plaid Alaska in 1997, and is now split between the Lib Dems, USIP and the Tories in that order. The Tories also polled well here in the 1980s, winning here in both 1983 and 1987.

The remainder of SE Alaska is relatively USIP voting, although Labor is the larger left-wing party, especially amongst Native Americans, and Plaid Alaska made strong showings here 1997-2005, drawing support from both the left and the right.

Anchorage and South-Central Alaska

Anchorage, home to over 40% of Alaskans, is an important economic centre for all of Alaska, and contains corporate headquarters for companies involved in the local oil, gas and fishing industries. It was named by Kiplinger as the US’ most tax-friendly city in 2010.

Central Anchorage is the most Lib Dem voting part of the city, and historically favoured Labor, along with western and eastern Anchorage. Southern Anchorage is strong for the Tories and USIP, along with the military bases. Ither parts, such as Spenard and the University Area, were Tory/Lib Dem swing in the past, but are now more of a 3-way split with the addition of USIP. Plaid Alaska did alright here in 1997-2005, helping them win the state in those years, but are largely a fifth party in Anchorage now. In 2010, looking at the whole of Anchorage, USIP won, followed by the Lib Dems, Tories, Labor, and Plaid Alaska. In the past, Anchorage was generally Tory until 1997

The remainder of South-Central Alaska is similar to SE Alaska, although with a stronger USIP (and Tory in the past) vote, weaker Labor vote, and Plaid Alaska wouldn’t have done as well here when they won Alaska as a whole.

Southwest Alaska and the Aleutian Islands

With a high Native American population, this region is one of Labor’s best in Alaska, although Plaid Alaska still got a good vote here in 1997-2005, finishing second to Labor with all other parties way behind. The Tories and USIP get support from miners, and do fairly well here, although Labor won here overall in 2010, partially thanks to a split in the right-wing vote.

Alaska Interior

Fairbanks, Alaska’s 2nd largest city, is a notable military centre, and has favoured the Tories, and more recently USIP, since it commenced voting in 1959. Western Fairbanks, with its university presence, is good for the Lib Dems, and historically Labor.

Much of the remainder of this region was historically good for Labor, and although has slowly drifted to the right over the years, Labor still do well here, winning a plurality of the vote here for many years, even when Plaid Alaska won the state. The Green Party also do well here.

Arctic Alaska

The most isolated region of the state, Arctic Alaska is a prominent mining area, and has a rich USIP, historically Tory vote, although also has a high Labor vote, thanks to the strong backing from natives, making the area largely a USIP-Labor contest today, after being Tory-Labor in the past, and a 3-way contest with Plaid Alaska from 1997-2005.

Alaska was historically a Tory stronghold, barring Labor’s 1966 landslide win, although disillusionment with both the Tories and Labor propelled Plaid Alaska to the first of three consecutive victories in 1997, before going to USIP in 2010. USIP will likely hold Alaska for the foreseeable future.

Here’s how Alaska would have voted from 1959 onwards:
1959: Conservative
1964: Conservative
1966: Labor
1970: Conservative
February 1974: Conservative, with the Liberals polling strongly.
October 1974: Conservative
1979: Conservative
1983: Conservative
1987: Conservative
1992: Conservative
1997: Plaid Alaska, on the back of a populist campaign against the inevitable Labor government.
2001: Plaid Alaska
2005: Plaid Alaska, despite a 4-way split from the Tories, Lib Dems and the emerging USIP.
2010: USIP, Plaid Alaska consigned to fifth place.

Hawaii

The newest state in the union at the time of typing, Hawaii is the only US state that wholly consists of islands, and the only state with a Union Jack in its flag. Hawaii was settled by Polynesians in the 4th century, and was first sighted by Captain James Cook in 1778, who was killed there the following year. Hawaii has been a monarchy, independent republic and a US territory before becoming a state in 1959. Known for its distinct culture, tropical climate, beaches, scenery and volcanoes, Hawaii attracts all types of tourists from casual vacationer to devoted surfer.

Hawaii’s voting patterns are broken down by county:

Hawaii County

Comprising the largest island in the Hawaiian archipelago, containing Hawaii’s highest mountain, Mauna Kea, half of which is underwater, Hawaii County is the largest island in the US, and is the island that gave Hawaii its name, known as Big Island to the locals. Kamehameha the Great, who united most of the Hawaiian Islands in 1795, was from here, and the Hawaii Democrats, a fringe party calling for a restoration of the monarchy, pick up a few percent of the vote here.

For the most part, Hawaii County, historically an important area for growing sugarcane, and continuing to be used for other forms of agriculture, votes Labor. The Lib Dems took a fair amount of their vote in 2010, with the Tories in third.

Maui County

Similar to Hawaii County, the islands that comprise Maui County are economically dependent on agriculture and tourism, although Maui is on average more affluent than Hawaii County, indicating a higher Lib Dem vote and lower Labor vote, the Tories polling roughly the same as in Hawaii County. The HDs would get a few protest votes, particularly in 2010, but never enough to seriously win the county or state.

Honolulu County

The most populous county in Hawaii, and concurrent with the capital and largest city of Hawaii, Honolulu County is the make-or-break county for any political race in the state, if you win all the other counties, but not Honolulu, you’re likely to lose. Honolulu, in addition to being the state’s capital, is Hawaii’s major transportation hub and financial centre, and swung to the Lib Dems strongly in 2005 and 2010 after voting Labor since 1987. The Tories have come third here since 1997, and will likely have trouble winning here in the future, although they did well here in 1979-1987, Hawaii was close in both elections.

Kauai County

Similar to Hawaii and Maui Counties, Kauai County votes Labor with the Lib Dems in second and the Tories in third, and has so since 1997. The Hawaii Democrats again pick up a few percent of the vote, more so in elections like 2010.

Kalawao County

Isolated from the rest of the island Moloka’i and Maui County by sea cliffs, Kalawao County was a former leper colony, and is still inhabited by those with leprosy, 90 people lived here as of 2010. Most likely a strong Labor area, with next-to-no support (literally) for other parties.

With the exception of the Tory landslides in 1959 and 1983, Hawaii has largely been a Labor voting state, and although it went for the Lib Dems in the past two elections, will likely swing back to Labor in 2015.

Here’s how Hawaii would have voted from 1959 onwards:
1959: Conservative
1964: Labor
1966: Labor
1970: Labor
February 1974: Labor
October 1974: Labor
1979: Labor
1983: Conservative
1987: Labor
1992: Labor
1997: Labor, the Tories dropping to third.
2001: Labor
2005: Liberal Democrat
2010: Liberal Democrat

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here’s the final results:

Key to states coloured in green:
SC, GA, AL, MS, AR, NE, KS, OK & AK – USIP
AZ - SUP

NOTE: Despite using different parties, New Mexico and Arizona will only use green if the SUP/NM wins either state, otherwise:
Red – SDLP
Blue – DUP
Yellow – Alliance

Results:
Labor: 177
Conservative: 229
Liberal Democrat: 49
USIP: 67
DUP : 5
SUP: 11

Percentage of votes by state (winner in bold):
Maine: 12-38-44
New Hampshire: 27-49-14
Vermont: 26-21-47
Massachusetts: 40-27-18
Rhode Island: 64-22-8
Connecticut: 43-45-10
New York: 44-35-13
Pennsylvania: 45-41-6
New Jersey: 32-48-16
Delaware: 46-41-11
Maryland: 41-42-13
Washington DC: 72-10-15
West Virginia: 30-46-12-8
Kentucky: 21-51-4-17
Virginia: 24-44-15-14
Tennessee: 18-54-11-14
North Carolina: 14-47-16-18
South Carolina: 15-33-14-34
Georgia: 13-21-18-44
Florida: 16-43-19-18
Alabama: 24-19-2-50-4
Mississippi: 34-12-2-40-11
Louisiana: 29-35-3-27
Arkansas: 31-25-3-37
Missouri: 32-49-7-7
Illinois: 43-34-16
Indiana: 34-56-7
Ohio: 40-48-9
Michigan: 45-39-11
Wisconsin: 43-42-13
Minnesota: 30-32-35
North Dakota: 9-64-25
South Dakota: 10-65-22
Iowa: 39-37-20
Nebraska: 16-28-7-47
Kansas: 18-24-8-48
Oklahoma: 22-18-2-56
Texas: 25-36-6-14-17
New Mexico: 37-10- 35 -2-16
Colorado: 12-37-44
Wyoming: 7-71-15-5
Montana: 11-57-26
Idaho: 6-38-18-37
Utah: 5-78-15
Arizona: 7-46- 33 -4-10
Nevada: 44-47-8
California: 36-29-27-3-3
Oregon: 10-35-50-4
Washington: 9-34-54-2
Alaska: 11-16-23-44-5
Hawaii: 30-29-37-2

Now the results are in, here's how the next Presidency is decided:

Labor negotiations with the Lib Dems, southwestern parties and USIP fail almost immediately, leaving the Tories in the driving seat. The obvious options for the Tories are to enter into an agreement with either USIP or the Lib Dems. After a week or so of discussions, the Tories enter into an agreement with the Lib Dems, with a Tory President and Lib Dem Vice President, not wanting to pander to the "extremist" USIP.

However, this has caused anger amongst supporters of both the Lib Dems and Tories, with Lib Dems going back to Labor and more Tories going over to USIP.

After posting the 1959-2005 results, I will post a hypothetical 2015 election, based on current UK polling. If I am still on these boards come May 2015, or whenever the next UK election is, I will update it with the "real" 2015 result.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

1959

Labor: 15
Conservative: 466
SRL: 60
SUP: 8

1964

Labor: 271
Conservative: 176
NF: 78
Liberal: 4
SUP: 9

1966

Labor: 414
Conservative: 61
NF: 41
Liberal: 13
SDLP: 9

Revision to 1966:
SC – Tory to NF

1970

Labor: 116
Conservative: 366
NF: 46   
SUP: 10

Revisions to 1970:
MA & KY – Tory to Labor

February 1974

Labor: 253
Conservative: 228
Liberal: 47
SUP: 6
DUP: 4
No EC majority, Tory deals with Liberals fall apart, Liberals agree to elect Labor president with a Liberal vice-president, the deal falls apart within months, and a new election is held.

October 1974

Labor: 299
Conservative: 208
Liberal: 14
NF: 7
SUP: 6
DUP: 4

1979

Labor: 33
Conservative: 495
SUP: 6
DUP: 4

1983

Labor: 3
Conservative: 523
SUP: 7
DUP: 5

1987

Labor: 21
Conservative: 495
Liberal: 10
SUP: 7
DUP: 5

1992

Labor: 238
Conservative: 269
Liberal Democrat: 18
SUP: 8
DUP: 5

1997

Labor: 344
Conservative: 110
Liberal Democrat: 68
SDLP: 13
Plaid Alaska: 3

Why isn't Alaska going orange, while it is in the 2001 and 2005 maps? All advice is appreciated.

2001

Labor: 310
Conservative: 186
Liberal Democrat: 26
SUP: 8
SDLP: 5
Plaid Alaska: 3