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  CNN/ORC: Obama, Romney tied
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC: Obama, Romney tied  (Read 1182 times)
Fmr. Pres. Griff
Adam Griffin
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« on: September 04, 2012, 03:39:44 pm »

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/04/rel9a.pdf

LV:

Obama: 48%
Romney: 48%

RV:

Obama: 52%
Romney: 45%
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2012, 03:57:30 pm »

It was Obama 49, Romney 47% with LVs just before the RNC, and 52-43% w/ registered voters.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2012, 04:07:09 pm »

Consistent with a Romney convention bounce of 1-3% or so.
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pepper11
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« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2012, 04:12:03 pm »

The so called "small bounce" from the Ryan pick has turned out to be no bounce at all. Instead, he permanently changed the race by about a point or two, a much better outcome.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2012, 04:29:18 pm »

The so called "small bounce" from the Ryan pick has turned out to be no bounce at all. Instead, he permanently changed the race by about a point or two, a much better outcome.

2 things. 1) The bounce also "coincided" with many firms moving from Registered Voter to Likely Voter models, which may account for most of the movement... and its apparent permanence. 2) A bounce of 1 to 2 points is pretty hard to distinguish from statistical noise.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2012, 04:59:25 pm »

Lovin' that 52-45 margin with registered voters.  If Obama can kill it on the ground like he did in 2008 he's in good shape. 

Doesanyone know exactly what kind of questions pollster ask to determine a "likely" voter from a registered one? 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2012, 05:05:41 pm »

Dont know about ORC, but Pew recently posted about how they do their LV model
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2340/likely-voters-registered-poll-samples

Quote
Identifying likely voters is one of the most difficult aspects of conducting election polls. More respondents say they intend to vote than actually will cast a ballot. As a consequence, most pollsters do not rely solely upon a respondent's stated intention when classifying a person as likely to vote or not. Most pollsters use a combination of questions that measure intention to vote, interest in the campaign and past voting behavior. Different pollsters use different sets of questions to help identify likely voters.

We use a lengthy set of questions to assign each respondent a score on the likely voter scale in our final pre-election poll. Earlier in the campaign, we often use a somewhat shorter version of the scale to identify likely voters. The set of questions may include some or all of the following:

   How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election?
   How closely have you been following news about the candidates?
   Do you plan to vote in the presidential election? How certain are you that you will vote?
   Rate your chance of voting in November on a scale of 10 to 1, with 10 being "definitely will vote" and 1 "definitely will not vote."
   How often do you follow what's going on in government and public affairs?
   Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
   How often would you say you vote?
   Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
   In the last election, did things come up that kept you from voting or did you vote?
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2012, 05:27:51 pm »

National

2012 President
48% Obama (D), 48% Romney (R)
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50.7/46.4

Obama Job Approval
48% approve, 45% disapprove
my numbers:45.5/48.3

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 44
Mitt Romney: 49 / 43
Joe Biden: 46 / 43
Paul Ryan: 42 / 38

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/04/rel9a.pdf

NO WAY if Romney wins the Indies by 10% he`s losing only in a wishful thinking model
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2012, 05:34:29 pm »

So, the long story short is if Obama loses, its because Democrats can't run campaigns.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2012, 05:40:24 pm »

I'm confused.  Did Romney not get any convention bounce, or is he close in recent national/state polls only because of his convention bounce?
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King
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« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2012, 05:45:37 pm »

So, the long story short is if Obama loses, its because Democrats can't run campaigns.

Two words: early voting.

Obama and the Democrats are going to spend a ton more money trying to drive up turnout with early voting by mail, just like they did in 2008.  Making it easier to vote is the ultimate cure for apathy and it prevents anybody from changing their minds late.  

The fact that nobody is talking about it makes it our October surprise: results will be closer to the registered model than likely on the backs of early voting.  Obama's winning this thing, folks.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2012, 05:47:44 pm »

I'm confused.  Did Romney not get any convention bounce, or is he close in recent national/state polls only because of his convention bounce?

The RCP average was 4.6 points when Paul Ryan was nominated. Today it is .1 point.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #12 on: September 04, 2012, 05:58:11 pm »

I'm not buying a 7 point gap between RV's and LV's.  Would love to know what CNN is using for a LV screen.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2012, 06:17:54 pm »

The so called "small bounce" from the Ryan pick has turned out to be no bounce at all. Instead, he permanently changed the race by about a point or two, a much better outcome.

I'm sure you hope so!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2012, 06:22:35 pm »

National

2012 President
48% Obama (D), 48% Romney (R)
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50.7/46.4

Obama Job Approval
48% approve, 45% disapprove
my numbers:45.5/48.3

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 44
Mitt Romney: 49 / 43
Joe Biden: 46 / 43
Paul Ryan: 42 / 38

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/04/rel9a.pdf

NO WAY if Romney wins the Indies by 10% he`s losing only in a wishful thinking model

And absolutely nobody cares about these made up numbers that you keep pulling out of your ass. Talk about a "wishful thinking model"...
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2012, 06:25:01 pm »

My numbers:
5, 19, 231, 222,214

they are mine! you can't have them!
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2012, 08:33:10 pm »

Haven't been able to read through the poll until now. Here are more numbers. Convention appears to have helped Romney's (and Ryan's) favs.

56% of Registered Democrats are very, or extremely excited to vote.
62% of Registered Republicans are very, or extremely exicited to vote.

Obama favs among likely voters:
Favorable: 51% (-1)
Unfavorable: 48% (+1)

Romney favs w/ LVs
Favorable: 53% (+3)
Unfavorable: 43% (-3)

Ryan favs w/ LVs
Favorable: 49% (+4)
Unfavorable: 38% (-1)

Biden favs w/ LVs
Favorable: 46% (-)
Unfavorable: 47% (-)

Who would better handle...
the economy? Romney 51-45%
foreign policy? Obama 49-46%
Medicare? Obama 49-46%

Which one...
is a strong and decisive leader? Romney 48-43%
has an optimistic vision for country's future? Romney 47-43%
is in touch with middle class? Obama 49-43%
is in touch with problems facing women? Obama 56-36%

Among registered voters 46/36% said GOP convention made them less likely to vote for GOP, 13% said it made no difference. The question wasn't asked of likely voters.




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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: September 04, 2012, 08:41:35 pm »

Consistent with a Romney convention bounce of 1-3% or so.

Very, and what I was expecting.

A good convention, but nothing to write home about.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2012, 12:24:02 am »

my numbers

obama - OVER 9000%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
romney - -432189732904321823048713209%

ROMNEY CANt win because I say sooo!!!!!



In all seriousness, this poll would get me a little worried if I was Romney.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #19 on: September 05, 2012, 07:13:30 am »

National

2012 President
48% Obama (D), 48% Romney (R)
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 50.7/46.4

Obama Job Approval
48% approve, 45% disapprove
my numbers:45.5/48.3

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 44
Mitt Romney: 49 / 43
Joe Biden: 46 / 43
Paul Ryan: 42 / 38

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/09/04/rel9a.pdf

NO WAY if Romney wins the Indies by 10% he`s losing only in a wishful thinking model
My numbers: Romney/Obama: -G64/אo
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