CNN/ORC: Obama, Romney tied

[Wiz in Wis]

The so called "small bounce" from the Ryan pick has turned out to be no bounce at all. Instead, he permanently changed the race by about a point or two, a much better outcome.

2 things. 1) The bounce also "coincided" with many firms moving from Registered Voter to Likely Voter models, which may account for most of the movement... and its apparent permanence. 2) A bounce of 1 to 2 points is pretty hard to distinguish from statistical noise.